ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jonj2040]

I can add one for now. Good luck all!


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[Aric Dunn]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers up to 3.0/3.0 ... given SSD

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1145 UTC 15.3N 63.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILY

Sorry for my ignorance but what does 3.0/3.0 mean.

Rain is coming in from I can only guess may be feeder bands from Emily.

No problem my friend i let you these precious infos, read it carefully

The Dvorak Technique Explained

The Dvorak technique is a method using enhanced Infrared and/or visible satellite imagery to quantitatively estimate the intensity of a tropical system. Cloud patterns in satellite imagery normally show an indication of cyclogenesis before the storm reaches tropical storm intensity. Indications of continued development and/or weakening can also be found in the cloud features. Using these features, the pattern formed by the clouds of a tropical cyclone, expected systematic development, and a series of rules, an intensity analysis and forecast can be made. This information is then standardized into an intensity code.
Full Satellite Intensity Estimate Code:

EXAMPLE: Ttt/cc/Lvv/xxhrs
Where:
T - Tropical (ST is used for Sub-Tropical systems)
tt - Satellite Derived T-Number
cc - System Current Intensity T-Number
L - Past Change
D - Developing
W - Weakening
S - Little or No change (Same)
vv - Amount of Past change in T-Number
xx - Hours over which the change was observed


EXAMPLE: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24hrs

Translation: The system appears on satellite imagery to be T-Number 3.5 storm. This value matches the Current intensity generating about 55 knots of sustained winds. The storm has developed a full T-Number in the past 24 hours increasing the wind speeds from 35 to 55 knots. The atmospheric pressure in the center of the storm has also lowered.
EXAMPLE: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24hrs

Translation: The system appears on satellite imagery to be T-Number 4.5 storm. The Current intensity is still 5.5 and the system is still generating sustained winds of about 100 knots. As a forecast tool, the Dvorak technique is showing a weakening trend and the likelihood of a lowering CI within the next 24hours.

Our coordination call information only contains the satellite Derived T-Number and the Current intensity (Ttt/cc).


Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

[HurricaneWarning92]

Am i having the only problem that i cant go to the NHC site? It just shows up as a blank page.

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021214
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 14 20110802
120430 1546N 06247W 9772 00278 //// +235 //// 117032 033 035 000 01
120500 1548N 06247W 9773 00277 //// +234 //// 117032 032 033 002 01
120530 1549N 06247W 9766 00283 //// +235 //// 116033 033 032 002 01
120600 1551N 06247W 9770 00280 //// +235 //// 117033 035 033 002 01
120630 1553N 06248W 9765 00285 //// +235 //// 117034 035 034 001 01
120700 1554N 06248W 9767 00283 //// +235 //// 121036 036 036 000 01
120730 1556N 06248W 9769 00281 //// +235 //// 120035 036 034 001 01
120800 1558N 06248W 9771 00280 //// +235 //// 119036 036 035 001 05
120830 1559N 06250W 9762 00289 //// +235 //// 116033 035 /// /// 05
120900 1558N 06251W 9769 00282 //// +235 //// 115029 030 031 001 05
120930 1557N 06252W 9771 00280 //// +235 //// 116030 030 032 003 01
121000 1556N 06253W 9772 00278 //// +235 //// 117030 031 033 003 01
121030 1555N 06254W 9771 00278 //// +235 //// 115029 030 034 001 05
121100 1553N 06255W 9771 00279 //// +235 //// 113029 030 034 002 01
121130 1552N 06257W 9771 00278 //// +235 //// 115029 031 035 001 01
121200 1551N 06258W 9771 00279 //// +233 //// 114030 031 033 002 01
121230 1550N 06259W 9772 00275 //// +232 //// 112029 029 033 002 01
121300 1549N 06300W 9771 00278 //// +234 //// 111026 028 032 003 05
121330 1548N 06301W 9775 00272 //// +235 //// 115029 030 032 004 01
121400 1547N 06303W 9771 00276 //// +232 //// 118030 031 034 000 01
$$
;

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021224
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 15 20110802
121430 1545N 06304W 9767 00280 //// +226 //// 113028 029 032 004 01
121500 1544N 06305W 9771 00276 //// +225 //// 113030 030 032 003 01
121530 1543N 06306W 9774 00272 //// +225 //// 117029 031 033 002 01
121600 1542N 06307W 9769 00275 //// +225 //// 118030 030 033 003 01
121630 1541N 06309W 9770 00273 //// +225 //// 118029 030 033 003 01
121700 1540N 06310W 9772 00272 //// +228 //// 122030 031 032 002 01
121730 1539N 06311W 9770 00272 //// +225 //// 127033 034 034 004 01
121800 1538N 06312W 9770 00273 //// +222 //// 129036 037 036 001 01
121830 1536N 06313W 9767 00275 //// +216 //// 125031 035 034 003 01
121900 1535N 06314W 9780 00262 //// +201 //// 134026 027 036 002 01
121930 1534N 06315W 9765 00275 //// +220 //// 135023 024 033 002 01
122000 1533N 06317W 9767 00273 //// +225 //// 137023 025 031 002 01
122030 1532N 06318W 9774 00265 //// +232 //// 141024 024 031 002 01
122100 1531N 06319W 9768 00271 //// +227 //// 140021 022 031 001 01
122130 1530N 06320W 9772 00267 //// +232 //// 138018 019 028 002 01
122200 1529N 06321W 9772 00265 //// +238 //// 115011 013 027 000 01
122230 1528N 06322W 9771 00268 //// +243 //// 087010 011 027 001 01
122300 1527N 06323W 9773 00265 //// +244 //// 078009 010 028 000 05
122330 1525N 06324W 9769 00268 //// +237 //// 092011 013 022 001 05
122400 1524N 06324W 9767 00270 //// +235 //// 077009 011 024 000 01
$$
;

[AdamFirst]

Good morning...

so the center is beginning to consolidate under the CDO? Projections on how strong it gets before Hispaniola?

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021234
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 16 20110802
122430 1522N 06324W 9773 00265 //// +240 //// 042007 008 022 001 01
122500 1520N 06325W 9769 00268 //// +240 //// 013006 007 020 002 01
122530 1519N 06325W 9772 00265 //// +232 //// 011005 006 024 004 01
122600 1517N 06325W 9774 00264 //// +239 //// 326005 006 023 001 01
122630 1516N 06325W 9774 00262 //// +239 //// 292004 005 024 005 01
122700 1514N 06325W 9771 00265 //// +239 //// 277005 005 021 003 01
122730 1513N 06325W 9774 00263 //// +238 //// 272004 005 /// /// 05
122800 1513N 06326W 9775 00262 //// +240 //// 257002 002 022 001 05
122830 1514N 06328W 9768 00268 //// +239 //// 285001 002 020 001 01
122900 1515N 06329W 9771 00266 //// +240 //// 001002 003 021 000 01
122930 1515N 06330W 9770 00266 //// +240 //// 360002 003 023 001 01
123000 1516N 06332W 9767 00270 //// +238 //// 015002 003 021 001 01
123030 1517N 06333W 9768 00269 //// +235 //// 053002 004 020 002 01
123100 1518N 06335W 9774 00263 //// +234 //// 050005 006 019 004 05
123130 1519N 06334W 9764 00273 //// +238 //// 028003 003 014 000 05
123200 1520N 06333W 9771 00267 //// +239 //// 052003 004 018 000 01
123230 1521N 06332W 9772 00266 //// +239 //// 080003 004 018 002 05
123300 1522N 06330W 9769 00269 //// +240 //// 052003 004 /// /// 05
123330 1521N 06329W 9770 00269 //// +240 //// 020004 004 016 003 05
123400 1520N 06328W 9770 00268 //// +233 //// 012004 007 031 008 01
$$
;

[knotimpaired]

Good for me on this end (NHC site)

[SFLcane]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

Actually the 12z plots just came and the Bams along with TCVN shifted futher eastward. I expect another eastward shift to the tpc track @11am

[jonj2040]

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[TheBurn]

[NDG]

Looks like her COC has not moved much since her last fix an hour ago, so she could had been in the process of reforming closer to the deep convection.

[JPmia]

hmm.. so the latest GFS and EURO call for it to be torn up by Hispainola and the remanents head toward florida and the bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah the bams have been all over the place.

[SFLcane]

Yeah the bams have been all over the place.

Open wave for SFL later this week.

[wzrgirl1]

Healthy looking minimal tropical storm.

[Evil Jeremy]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

The 06z consensus shift was east, but only slightly. Very marginal actually. Lets see what the 12z holds.

[HurricaneWarning92]

yep, i believe we have here a 50 mph storm. at least.

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

The 06z consensus shift was east, but only slightly. Very marginal actually. Lets see what the 12z holds.

well the 00z was west .. the 6z has no real new data.