ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Gustywind]

Very strong showers are falling at Basse-Terre.

[SFLcane]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

The 06z consensus shift was east, but only slightly. Very marginal actually. Lets see what the 12z holds.

Already posted above it did shift futher eastward a bit.

[sandyb]

Keep us informed on what JB is daying after he left Accuweather I didn't follow him but I guess I need to do it on twitter

[wzrgirl1]

If T numbers are 3.0 then that would indicate a 50-55 mph storm yes???

[JPmia]

That EURO run is showing A LOT of rain for Florida.. and a strike on Haiti.

[sandyb]

Is the plane still out there? If not when will they go back?

[HURAKAN]

In my opinion, forget what the satellite images show, look at the RECON data, that's the real story.

[HurricaneWarning92]

If T numbers are 3.0 then that would indicate a 50-55 mph storm yes???

id assume, yes. thats where im basing my prediction of a 50 mph storm. But not sure.

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised at all the models came back west for 00z.. the riding was stronger than 18z had and the west motion of the storm had to be accounted for. a continued west shift is likely

The 06z consensus shift was east, but only slightly. Very marginal actually. Lets see what the 12z holds.

Already posted above it did shift futher eastward a bit.

also said the bams have been all over the place since yesterday afternoon. little faith in the bams.... gfs and euro are way left... hurricane models do not yet have a good handle on intensity or motion.. they keep sending it more wnw from initial position even though its moving W... hardly what you would call doing well... the models that have a westerly track should be paid more attention to in the short term.

[Gustywind]

If T numbers are 3.0 then that would indicate a 50-55 mph storm yes???

Absolutely you're right 52mph exactly given the Dvorak scale...

[NDG]

If T numbers are 3.0 then that would indicate a 50-55 mph storm yes???

I think that once her LLC gets going she could get that strong shortly after.

[Gustywind]

[ronjon]

Anticyclone building overtop Emily - explains the good outflow now. Could ramp up fairly quickly if COC is under the deep convection. Movement appears almost due west just north of 15N.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[wzrgirl1]

If T numbers are 3.0 then that would indicate a 50-55 mph storm yes???

I think that once her LLC gets going she could get that strong shortly after.

I unfortunately agree. Curious if anyone has any percentages from a couple of days ago regarding RI.....although I guess that may not apply if at that point there was no LLC.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If T numbers are 3.0 then that would indicate a 50-55 mph storm yes???

I think that once her LLC gets going she could get that strong shortly after.

She is getting the feathered look now in all quadrants...Good sign anticyclone is in perfect position for her to go from here at least in the short term...Have feeling were gonna see a strength forecast bust in next 48 hrs...

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye when the plane is scheduled to investigate Emily today?

[wxman57]

If T numbers are 3.0 then that would indicate a 50-55 mph storm yes???

id assume, yes. thats where im basing my prediction of a 50 mph storm. But not sure.

Dvorak T numbers are just rough estimates based on satellite. There's quite a bit of subjectivity in determining the Dvorak number. Placement of the center is highly critical. Get that wrong and there can be wild swings in the estimate for a weak system like Emily. Recon is ground truth. The plane is finding that Emily has not strengthened overnight (it's near the center right now). Winds are in the 40 mph range, still. Pressure is up 1mb since yesterday afternoon (now 1007mb).

[cycloneye]

If T numbers are 3.0 then that would indicate a 50-55 mph storm yes???

I think that once her LLC gets going she could get that strong shortly after.

I unfortunately agree. Curious if anyone has any percentages from a couple of days ago regarding RI.....although I guess that may not apply if at that point there was no LLC.

This is the 12z SHIP forecast for RI.

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    25% is   2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    21% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    16% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)


[Gustywind]

[jonj2040]

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