ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Tropics Guy]

Emily finally getting her act together, nice deep convection over the LLC, should strengthen before the DR/Haiti.................

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

TG

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021244
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 17 20110802
123430 1518N 06327W 9774 00267 //// +236 //// 004006 007 026 007 05
123500 1517N 06326W 9773 00266 //// +240 //// 353005 006 019 005 05
123530 1516N 06327W 9761 00278 //// +239 //// 356005 006 021 004 01
123600 1515N 06328W 9775 00264 //// +240 //// 339004 005 016 004 01
123630 1514N 06330W 9770 00269 //// +240 //// 327003 003 020 001 01
123700 1513N 06331W 9772 00267 //// +240 //// 308004 004 019 002 01
123730 1512N 06332W 9769 00268 //// +240 //// 303003 004 018 001 01
123800 1511N 06333W 9770 00268 //// +239 //// 284002 003 021 001 01
123830 1510N 06334W 9776 00264 //// +235 //// 249003 005 023 002 01
123900 1509N 06335W 9771 00268 //// +226 //// 188002 004 028 004 01
123930 1507N 06337W 9776 00262 //// +217 //// 195002 004 030 009 05
124000 1506N 06338W 9768 00271 //// +222 //// 243003 004 025 005 05
124030 1505N 06339W 9768 00271 //// +229 //// 224003 004 027 007 01
124100 1504N 06340W 9768 00271 //// +236 //// 257005 006 023 007 01
124130 1503N 06341W 9774 00266 //// +240 //// 245006 006 020 003 01
124200 1502N 06342W 9769 00271 //// +240 //// 243005 005 018 001 01
124230 1501N 06343W 9770 00270 //// +240 //// 254004 004 019 001 01
124300 1500N 06345W 9769 00271 //// +240 //// 272003 004 019 000 01
124330 1459N 06346W 9770 00270 //// +240 //// 286004 004 018 001 01
124400 1458N 06347W 9773 00267 //// +240 //// 267005 005 018 003 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye when the plane is scheduled to investigate Emily today?

Is right now there (Go to recon thread)

[wzrgirl1]

This is the 12z SHIP forecast for RI.

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    25% is   2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    21% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    16% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)


[/quote]


Thanks for that info Cycloneye!!

[jlauderdal]

In my opinion, forget what the satellite images show, look at the RECON data, that's the real story.

correct, RECON and ground observations always before sat

[Evil Jeremy]

Hey Cycloneye when the plane is scheduled to investigate Emily today?

One is currently in right now.

[Aric Dunn]

only hurricane model I see thats doing halfway decent on initial motion is the new hwrf-noaa .... it keeps the west motion till about 67-68w before turning into hispanola.

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021254
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 18 20110802
124430 1457N 06348W 9773 00267 //// +241 //// 266006 006 021 001 01
124500 1456N 06349W 9767 00272 //// +242 //// 254006 006 021 002 01
124530 1455N 06350W 9769 00271 //// +242 //// 256006 007 020 003 01
124600 1454N 06351W 9774 00267 //// +242 //// 257006 007 020 002 01
124630 1453N 06353W 9770 00272 //// +240 //// 257006 007 018 002 01
124700 1452N 06354W 9770 00273 //// +240 //// 263006 007 019 002 01
124730 1451N 06355W 9773 00270 //// +240 //// 258006 007 021 002 01
124800 1450N 06356W 9772 00272 //// +240 //// 248006 007 021 000 05
124830 1449N 06357W 9768 00276 //// +240 //// 246006 007 020 002 01
124900 1448N 06358W 9768 00275 //// +240 //// 247006 006 020 002 01
124930 1447N 06359W 9770 00274 //// +240 //// 255007 007 020 001 01
125000 1446N 06400W 9770 00273 //// +242 //// 257006 007 018 000 05
125030 1445N 06402W 9770 00274 //// +240 //// 240005 005 /// /// 05
125100 1446N 06403W 9755 00288 //// +240 //// 222006 007 021 000 05
125130 1448N 06402W 9689 00348 //// +239 //// 223007 007 020 001 01
125200 1450N 06402W 9748 00294 //// +240 //// 220006 007 018 003 01
125230 1451N 06402W 9773 00272 //// +240 //// 224005 005 020 002 01
125300 1453N 06402W 9768 00274 //// +238 //// 211004 005 021 001 01
125330 1454N 06402W 9769 00275 //// +238 //// 200004 004 017 003 05
125400 1456N 06402W 9772 00272 //// +240 //// 206003 004 018 002 01
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

Well I guess we will see another shift east in the NHC track at 11am since the tcvn is further east. I am starting to think Emily may pass Florida well to the east... but just my opinion of course. On a side note the NWS Miami is saying TS conditions possible Friday night and Saturday for my area.

[wxman57]

Note that the center is on the western edge of that convective burst, indicating Emily is still fighting strong low-level flow that is resulting in low-level wind shear. This keeps the center out west of the convection. It needs to slow down to intensify.

[ronjon]

I don't think you can doubt what your eyes can see. Much improved SAT appearance, anticyclone now anchored at 200 mb, shear appears non-existent and a center fix under deep convection. I think in the short term all indications are for intensification.

[GCANE]

Looks like we had a nice DMAX overshooting top just after dawn.

It set off a nice cirrus outflow.

But we really need to see if this can maintain convection over the next few hours.

If there is not a strong LLC, it could wash itself out again.

[jonj2040]

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[sandyb]

Well I guess we will see another shift east in the NHC track at 11am since the tvcn is further east. I am starting to think Emily may pass Florida well to the east... but just my opinion of course. On a side note the NWS Miami is saying TS conditions possible Friday night and Saturday for my area.

the weather channel on the locals on the 8 have us highlited in red and says watching the tropics for Sunday...wonder if they are thinking it will make it up here it wouldnt be the first one to do and some of the models are showing a good sign of it

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT12 KNHC 021257
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 02/12:32:50Z
B. 15 deg 22 min N
063 deg 31 min W
C. NA
D. 36 kt
E. 050 deg 24 nm
F. 127 deg 36 kt
G. 050 deg 24 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C / 304 m
J. 24 C / 303 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0505A EMILY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 11:54:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 057 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[plasticup]

Note that the center is on the western edge of that convective burst, indicating Emily is still fighting strong low-level flow that is resulting in low-level wind shear. This keeps the center out west of the convection. It needs to slow down to intensify.

But it's not as rough as yesterday! LLC and convection are closer than they were.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

Well I guess we will see another shift east in the NHC track at 11am since the tvcn is further east. I am starting to think Emily may pass Florida well to the east... but just my opinion of course. On a side note the NWS Miami is saying TS conditions possible Friday night and Saturday for my area.

TCVN is a consensus model takes into account all the other models. it basically is the middle. NHC went left of the TCVN this morning.

[wxman57]

Note that the center is on the western edge of that convective burst, indicating Emily is still fighting strong low-level flow that is resulting in low-level wind shear. This keeps the center out west of the convection. It needs to slow down to intensify.

But it's not as rough as yesterday! LLC and convection are closer than they were.

That's true, much better than yesterday. It does appear to be slowing down now, which should allow for intensification.

[SouthFloridawx]

What about the apparent wind shift to the SW of the center fix? What does that indicate?