ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Bocadude85]

Note that the center is on the western edge of that convective burst, indicating Emily is still fighting strong low-level flow that is resulting in low-level wind shear. This keeps the center out west of the convection. It needs to slow down to intensify.

But it's not as rough as yesterday! LLC and convection are closer than they were.

That's true, much better than yesterday. It does appear to be slowing down now, which should allow for intensification.

wxman57 what are you thoughts regarding the future track and strength of Emily? I have very elderly grandparents living in costal Palm Beach County and the family is concerned about the potential loss of power.

[Aric Dunn]

The Southwest quad appears to be very disorganized. Notice how all the winds in the other quads are more uniform in nature.

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/4673/swquad.png

thats just missing data... I believe

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,there is is.

[img]http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/JUA_loop.gif[/im]

Yep that would be it... been ploting the recon VDM on GR ... still west

[Macrocane]

I was surprised this morning when I looked at satellite imagery as I was prepared to see a sheared cyclone but I found a more symmetrical storm with strong convection and good outflow, than I as surprised by the NHC when I read the latest intermediate advisory as it said it was poorly organized, I think that that description diesn't fit what I saw on satellite, maybe Emiliy started to get organized after the advisory.

[Aric Dunn]

I was surprised this morning when I looked at satellite imagery as I was prepared to see a sheared cyclone but I found a more symmetrical storm with strong convection and good outflow, than I as surprised by the NHC when I read the latest intermediate advisory as it said it was poorly organized, I think that that description diesn't fit what I saw on satellite, maybe Emiliy started to get organized after the advisory.

yeah its slowly trying too.. having low level problems still for sure.. but slowly with every convective burst she should become more organized.

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021324
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 21 20110802
131430 1518N 06333W 9774 00270 //// +227 //// 081015 017 /// /// 05
131500 1517N 06332W 9788 00255 //// +213 //// 039008 012 /// /// 05
131530 1515N 06332W 9766 00274 //// +218 //// 002009 010 /// /// 05
131600 1514N 06332W 9755 00283 //// +222 //// 356011 015 /// /// 05
131630 1513N 06333W 9764 00276 //// +233 //// 359009 010 /// /// 05
131700 1514N 06334W 9781 00261 //// +237 //// 003006 007 /// /// 05
131730 1516N 06334W 9769 00272 //// +226 //// 029006 007 /// /// 05
131800 1517N 06334W 9769 00272 //// +231 //// 057011 013 /// /// 05
131830 1519N 06335W 9779 00263 //// +232 //// 087017 020 /// /// 05
131900 1520N 06335W 9772 00270 //// +232 //// 086015 016 /// /// 05
131930 1522N 06335W 9767 00275 //// +232 //// 093016 019 /// /// 05
132000 1523N 06335W 9768 00274 //// +230 //// 105016 020 /// /// 05
132030 1525N 06335W 9757 00284 //// +227 //// 104019 020 /// /// 05
132100 1527N 06335W 9772 00272 //// +231 //// 104020 021 /// /// 05
132130 1528N 06335W 9767 00276 //// +230 //// 106022 025 /// /// 05
132200 1530N 06335W 9766 00278 //// +231 //// 105022 025 /// /// 05
132230 1532N 06335W 9771 00274 //// +228 //// 111021 024 /// /// 05
132300 1533N 06335W 9775 00270 //// +233 //// 111019 021 /// /// 05
132330 1535N 06335W 9773 00271 //// +234 //// 119018 020 /// /// 05
132400 1536N 06335W 9771 00274 //// +234 //// 121020 021 /// /// 05
$$
;

[NDG]

Note that the center is on the western edge of that convective burst, indicating Emily is still fighting strong low-level flow that is resulting in low-level wind shear. This keeps the center out west of the convection. It needs to slow down to intensify.

But it's not as rough as yesterday! LLC and convection are closer than they were.

That's true, much better than yesterday. It does appear to be slowing down now, which should allow for intensification.

I estimated earlier this morning that her average during the night is closer to 10 mph based on her recon fix this morning and the one from yesterday evening. Or the idea of that she reformed or is reforming closer to the deep convection this morning thus for the illusion that she slowed down.

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Bocadude85]

Wouldnt the farther east posistion of Emily cause Emily to make her turn to the NW further east and thus reduce the risk to the US?

[Aric Dunn]

image from Grlevel3 ... little red dot is lat recon fix

[CronkPSU]

Wouldnt the farther east posistion of Emily cause Emily to make her turn to the NW further east and thus reduce the risk to the US?

yes, but who knows by how much it would reduce the risk, everyone's magic 8 ball is still really cloudy this far out

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021334
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 22 20110802
132430 1538N 06335W 9769 00275 //// +233 //// 122024 026 /// /// 05
132500 1540N 06335W 9770 00275 //// +227 //// 119027 029 /// /// 05
132530 1541N 06335W 9769 00276 //// +227 //// 118029 030 /// /// 05
132600 1543N 06335W 9772 00274 //// +227 //// 119031 032 /// /// 05
132630 1545N 06335W 9772 00274 //// +227 //// 122030 031 /// /// 05
132700 1546N 06335W 9770 00275 //// +229 //// 123034 035 /// /// 05
132730 1548N 06335W 9770 00276 //// +230 //// 122036 036 /// /// 05
132800 1550N 06335W 9769 00278 //// +233 //// 119035 037 /// /// 05
132830 1551N 06335W 9771 00276 //// +232 //// 118033 034 /// /// 05
132900 1553N 06335W 9770 00278 //// +228 //// 114032 033 /// /// 05
132930 1555N 06335W 9770 00278 //// +225 //// 115031 031 /// /// 05
133000 1556N 06335W 9774 00274 //// +229 //// 118034 035 /// /// 05
133030 1558N 06335W 9774 00275 //// +228 //// 121033 034 /// /// 05
133100 1600N 06335W 9773 00276 //// +229 //// 119034 035 /// /// 05
133130 1602N 06335W 9773 00277 //// +230 //// 115035 036 /// /// 05
133200 1603N 06335W 9768 00284 //// +228 //// 108033 035 /// /// 05
133230 1605N 06335W 9774 00277 //// +230 //// 109036 037 /// /// 05
133300 1607N 06335W 9767 00285 //// +227 //// 107036 038 /// /// 05
133330 1608N 06335W 9776 00277 //// +225 //// 108037 038 /// /// 05
133400 1610N 06335W 9766 00286 //// +230 //// 110036 038 /// /// 05
$$
;

[N2Storms]

[quote="Bocadude85"]Wouldnt the farther east posistion of Emily cause Emily to make her turn to the NW further east and thus reduce the risk to the US?[/quote]



You would think so...IMO, the NHC track is going to come pretty close to the mark. I think it may just graze S. Fla as it makes it turn to the N / NNE

[pgoss11]

If it continues westbound it's possible it will not cross over the rugged mountain terrain of DR and possibly just cross over the far western part of Haiti. I wonder what that would do to the intensity forecast?

[jonj2040]

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[Aric Dunn]

Wouldnt the farther east posistion of Emily cause Emily to make her turn to the NW further east and thus reduce the risk to the US?

yes, but who knows by how much it would reduce the risk, everyone's magic 8 ball is still really cloudy this far out

yes and no... if she reforms slightly farther east under convection ... than it really depends on the western extent of the ridging to the north. if its present would keep her moving westerly. its all about timing. right now more west seems to be the track in the short term.

[tolakram]

Emily just getting into Goes E Conus range which is running in rapid scan mode.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=15

[SFLcane]

[artist]

almost all 05 codes (last column) which mean -
T/TD and SFMR questionable
which are represented with the ///

[Aric Dunn]

Emily just getting into Goes E Conus range which is running in rapid scan mode.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=15

been waiting for that..