18z Tropical model suite 92L=30kts TD#10 on the horizon

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cycloneye
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18z Tropical model suite 92L=30kts TD#10 on the horizon

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:52 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03082618

Hummmm 30kts sounds like TD freshold to me but looking at the system it has organized big time today.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Aug 26, 2003 3:14 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:53 pm

Looks like a TD to me ...at least!
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#3 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:55 pm

I agree.. Looks Like a TD, and if it wasnt so far East im sure it would of been called.. now my question.. WHY OH WHY is it still called 92L?? At first i just thought it was a lil boo boo, and they would fix it.. Its been two days now though
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:18 pm

Well chad that number will be gone later today if it is classified to TD#10 or noname.
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#5 Postby Colin » Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:49 pm

It sure does look like a TD to me! :o I might've been wrong about my prediction!! :o
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#6 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 26, 2003 4:09 pm

Anyone catch the big thing here! This is at a much lower latitude than the previous runs. Two and Three degrees further south while 8 - 10 degrees further west. Moves it faster than before :o
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YEp

#7 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 4:13 pm

Yeah, I noticed the southward track shift at 120hrs (19-20N vs 24N). Here's the 5pm NHC outlook:

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WESTNORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

As I thought, they're sitting on it until tomorrow.
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#8 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 26, 2003 4:15 pm

Yep. Thanks for the TWO....couldn't find the 5 pm.
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2003 4:21 pm

Yes they will wait for convection to consolidate and persist before any upgrade comes.
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#10 Postby JetMaxx » Tue Aug 26, 2003 4:23 pm

It definitely appears to be a TD...and a report from several hours at Sal in the Cape Verde shows both low pressure (1011 mb) and clear evidence of circulation....surface winds there veering from NNW yesterday to ENE this morning, gusting over 30 mph -- and Sal is at latitude 16.2 N...over 200 miles north of this system.

This is likely going to be our first major Atlantic hurricane in a few days...only question is will it stay far enough south to affect the NE Caribbean and beyond, or recurve as only a threat to shipping and possibly Bermuda.
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#11 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:13 pm

Not to mention the 18z Tropical Models were initialized at 1008 mb ...
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#12 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:22 pm

Is there a chance that this one could skip TD status and go right to TS status?
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#13 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:10 pm

It seems like we've had a bunch of those in the last couple of years LOL Whay not one more? ;-) With a system this far out I guess it's understandable that they wait and see if it holds together.
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#14 Postby Storm Cooper » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:47 pm

I see running ST6 with possibly 3 windows open for the first time for me :D The time is here 8-)
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