ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[leanne_uk]

starting to look pretty ominous in visuals

Just my very amateur opinion :-\

[SouthFLTropics]

The navy track posted above seems reasonable...Unfortunately it would spend a lot of time over open water. My forecast as of midday yesterday called for a track between Jamaica and Cuba with a landfall somewhere near Gitmo. After that, cross the middle Keys and then run up the state west of Lake O and exit between Daytona and Jacksonville. I think I'll stick with that...looks very plausible.

SFT

[AdamFirst]

Anxiously awaiting the 12z models.

[jonj2040]

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[Aric Dunn]

anyone really take notice of how large the error cone is.. lol.. eastern gulf to SC lol

Just remember guys that the size of the cone does NOT change from storm to storm or advisory to advisory...it is fixed. This is one of the most common mistakes I see people make...including unfortunately some 'professional' mets. The cone is based on average errors by the NHC over the last 5 years...essentially the cone shows 2/3rds of the average error for that stretch.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Is it really ? seems odd to do that considering each storm has different statistical anomalies.. ... either way I guess it does not make a difference. the chances of the system being outside the error cone that far out is low... thanks for that

[KWT]

Wow take a look at that MLC, it really is strong at the moment, LLC doesn't look as vigorous on that high resolution sat.loop.

system is slowing right down, probably a sign that a turn will happen fairly soon more to the WNW...for now still heading westwards, at least the MLC is!

[tolakram]

Latest recon fix is NW of last few positions.

[AHS2011]

Could we be seeing a hurricane later today?

[Aric Dunn]

man recon is having rough time out there.. lol

[AdamFirst]

Do I dare say it...it's got that "comma" shape

[cycloneye]

Aric a better radar



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[Aric Dunn]

well the 12z NAm is now farther north. more of a weakness at 18 hours. lets see if it translates to the other models later.

[Gustywind]

From our local newspaper France-Antilles...
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 133364.php

METEO. Back to yellow, but strong storm expected showers
franceantilles.fr02.08.2011

The most active part of the storm tropical Emily finally avoided the archipelago of Guadeloupe. In the beginning of the day, the risk of heavy stormy showers persists however in the back. Yellow cyclone vigilance is therefore maintained in the beginning of the day. Sea and wind conditions are improving, Wednesday, but storms still relate to the Department, a real improvement that not occur before Thursday.
Tropical storm now away on the Caribbean Sea, hence a reduction in the level of vigilance in yellow. The cyclone vigilance (which might evolve in vigilance "Rain and storms" in the day) is still maintained in the beginning of the day, the parameters of wind, sea and time still being affected by the proximity of Emily.
The most active part of the tropical storm Emily finally avoided the Guadeloupe archipelago, passing just to the South and rather Dominica and Martinique. In the beginning of the day, the risk of heavy stormy showers continues to the rear of the storm. Wind strong enough that night with values of 50 to 60 km/h and gusts of 100 km/h, turned to the Southeast and weakens significantly today, while remaining fairly sustained (40 to 50 km/h, gusts risk approaching 100 km/h). The sea, strong with 3 m to 3 m 50 and wave troughs maximum of more than 5 m, cushions in the evening. A sea of South-East wind can cause rolls along the South and West (side Caribbean) usually protected.
Wednesday, sea and wind conditions continue to improve, but storms still relate to the Department, a real improvement that not occur before Thursday.

[jonj2040]

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[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021405
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 25 20110802
135430 1541N 06401W 9770 00274 //// +239 //// 085013 014 025 002 01
135500 1539N 06400W 9767 00277 //// +240 //// 077010 011 022 002 01
135530 1537N 06400W 9772 00272 //// +240 //// 068009 009 019 001 05
135600 1536N 06400W 9766 00277 //// +240 //// 069008 008 021 002 05
135630 1534N 06359W 9772 00272 //// +240 //// 064008 009 020 000 05
135700 1533N 06359W 9770 00273 //// +240 //// 059009 009 021 001 05
135730 1532N 06358W 9770 00273 //// +240 //// 054008 008 021 000 01
135800 1530N 06357W 9770 00274 //// +240 //// 056008 008 020 001 05
135830 1529N 06356W 9769 00274 //// +240 //// 048006 007 021 000 05
135900 1527N 06355W 9768 00275 //// +240 //// 036003 004 020 001 05
135930 1526N 06354W 9770 00275 //// +236 //// 062002 002 022 000 01
140000 1525N 06353W 9773 00273 //// +240 //// 025002 002 022 000 01
140030 1524N 06352W 9773 00274 //// +240 //// 356002 003 021 001 01
140100 1522N 06351W 9769 00277 //// +237 //// 027002 002 024 002 01
140130 1521N 06350W 9772 00274 //// +222 //// 047002 003 026 007 01
140200 1520N 06349W 9772 00274 //// +235 //// 266002 002 024 000 01
140230 1519N 06348W 9771 00275 //// +235 //// 009002 003 025 003 01
140300 1518N 06347W 9761 00283 //// +229 //// 055005 006 029 006 01
140330 1517N 06346W 9773 00272 //// +235 //// 034005 005 023 005 01
140400 1516N 06345W 9772 00273 //// +238 //// 007005 005 024 003 01
$$
;

[tolakram]

For the wobble watchers, lat lon turned on.

Emily really moving west rapidly ... at least the main convection is, not really sure where the LLC is at the moment.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[artist]

ALHurricane, a pro met here posted this thread for us a few years back regarding all the models with information on each for all who are interested in learning more about them -
viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467

[Gustywind]

Aric a better radar

http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t26/ ... apr/58.gif

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Very nice loop, any link for this Cycloneye?

[Cainer]

The satellite pics of Emily sure are deceiving, they make it look like a high-end TS! Clearly not nearly as well-organized as it looks, recon shows that it's barely even a tropical storm, the winds in the southwest quadrant only just support a closed circulation, and no pressure drop between passes. Poor Emily is struggling (for now).

[Aric Dunn]

Aric a better radar

[img]http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t26/alberto1apr/58.gif[/im]

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hehe.. not better than GR... but I do like the over shading of green. its lets it stand out more. Thanks