ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Very nice loop, any link for this Cycloneye?

I found it in a spanish forum. That radar doesn't update as it is uploaded.

[Aric Dunn]

Although it does lift the trough out even faster..

[SouthFloridawx]

High pressure to the North of Emily.

[wxman57]

wxman57 what are you thoughts regarding the future track and strength of Emily? I have very elderly grandparents living in coastal Palm Beach County and the family is concerned about the potential loss of power.

I would prepare as if I expected power to be lost for several days. We won't know for sure how windy it may get there for at least another 48 hours and maybe 72 hours. But if you wait that long it may be too late to prepare. Emily could pass off to the east and they'd get very little wind. Or Emily could remain weaker and track west of the southern Peninsula, and they'd get very little. But if Emily goes right over them (distinct possibility), then they could be without power for several days even if Emily is a 60-70 mph TS when it passes.

[artist]

Very nice loop, any link for this Cycloneye?

I found it in a spanish forum. That radar doesn't update as it is uploaded.

here is the link all -
http://www.accuweather.com/enhanced-radar.asp

[Aric Dunn]

High pressure to the North of Emily.

[img]http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/5254/wg8dlm6.gif[/ig]

thats at the 200mb level ... its not doing much steering from there.. but could if it deepened more.. the rest of the layers have ridging still well in place too though

[KWT]

SouthFloridawx, most interesting to see, must be a very small ridge that has formed ahead of the upper trough which explains why the MLC at least is moving off to the west...

Recon fixing the center moving NW but not sure if thats actually the case or whether its just recon not quite hitting the center as it is still quite poorly defined.

[vbhoutex]

The satellite pics of Emily sure are deceiving, they make it look like a high-end TS! Clearly not nearly as well-organized as it looks, recon shows that it's barely even a tropical storm, the winds in the southwest quadrant only just support a closed circulation, and no pressure drop between passes. Poor Emily is struggling (for now).

I think she is still fighting the mid-level dry air and until she gets away from that we are going to see this continuing struggle. I see the suggestions that she may be turning, but I have my doubts about that as weak as she still is. It will be hard for her to feel any weakness unless she really ramps up or unless the trough coming down is extra strong for this time of year. Definitely still going to be a tough call for at least the next 24 hours imo.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CypressMike]

anyone really take notice of how large the error cone is.. lol.. eastern gulf to SC lol

Just remember guys that the size of the cone does NOT change from storm to storm or advisory to advisory...it is fixed. This is one of the most common mistakes I see people make...including unfortunately some 'professional' mets. The cone is based on average errors by the NHC over the last 5 years...essentially the cone shows 2/3rds of the average error for that stretch.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Is it really ? seems odd to do that considering each storm has different statistical anomalies.. ... either way I guess it does not make a difference. the chances of the system being outside the error cone that far out is low... thanks for that

Actually, the chances of the system being outside the error cone are not all that low. Statistically, 1/3 of the time the actual path will be outside the cone of error. That's better than 3 out of every 10 storms.

[HurricaneWarning92]

The satellite pics of Emily sure are deceiving, they make it look like a high-end TS! Clearly not nearly as well-organized as it looks, recon shows that it's barely even a tropical storm, the winds in the southwest quadrant only just support a closed circulation, and no pressure drop between passes. Poor Emily is struggling (for now).

lol for real it looks like a 65/70 mph storm, but it really isnt.

[Aric Dunn]

SouthFloridawx, most interesting to see, must be a very small ridge that has formed ahead of the upper trough which explains why the MLC at least is moving off to the west...

Recon fixing the center moving NW but not sure if thats actually the case or whether its just recon not quite hitting the center as it is still quite poorly defined.

NW ... it was only .2 degrees of latitude N of the previous fix ... thats still west..

[Gustywind]

Very nice loop, any link for this Cycloneye?

I found it in a spanish forum. That radar doesn't update as it is uploaded.

here is the link all -
http://www.accuweather.com/enhanced-radar.asp

Thanks my friend i appreciate artist. I like the way you discuss and help us in many threads

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021414
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 26 20110802
140430 1514N 06343W 9770 00274 //// +238 //// 012006 007 /// /// 05
140500 1513N 06342W 9770 00274 //// +238 //// 005005 006 /// /// 05
140530 1512N 06341W 9764 00281 //// +216 //// 285003 007 /// /// 05
140600 1511N 06340W 9772 00273 //// +203 //// 278001 007 /// /// 05
140630 1510N 06339W 9770 00275 //// +207 //// 050004 004 /// /// 05
140700 1509N 06338W 9767 00278 //// +209 //// 102007 009 /// /// 05
140730 1508N 06336W 9781 00267 //// +234 //// 108009 012 /// /// 05
140800 1507N 06335W 9788 00257 //// +230 //// 007003 009 /// /// 05
140830 1505N 06334W 9762 00283 //// +224 //// 162001 004 /// /// 05
140900 1504N 06333W 9768 00277 //// +211 //// 189015 021 /// /// 05
140930 1503N 06332W 9778 00273 //// +208 //// 194017 020 /// /// 05
141000 1502N 06331W 9775 00274 //// +220 //// 197016 018 /// /// 05
141030 1501N 06329W 9774 00274 //// +211 //// 201020 021 /// /// 05
141100 1500N 06328W 9764 00285 //// +228 //// 198022 023 /// /// 05
141130 1459N 06327W 9766 00283 //// +213 //// 188023 025 /// /// 05
141200 1458N 06326W 9775 00275 //// +230 //// 181024 025 /// /// 05
141230 1458N 06326W 9775 00275 //// +238 //// 186024 025 /// /// 05
141300 1456N 06324W 9769 00282 //// +244 //// 186026 026 /// /// 05
141330 1455N 06323W 9769 00283 //// +241 //// 177025 026 /// /// 05
141400 1454N 06322W 9774 00281 //// +233 //// 160021 022 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Just remember guys that the size of the cone does NOT change from storm to storm or advisory to advisory...it is fixed. This is one of the most common mistakes I see people make...including unfortunately some 'professional' mets. The cone is based on average errors by the NHC over the last 5 years...essentially the cone shows 2/3rds of the average error for that stretch.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Is it really ? seems odd to do that considering each storm has different statistical anomalies.. ... either way I guess it does not make a difference. the chances of the system being outside the error cone that far out is low... thanks for that

Actually, the chances of the system being outside the error cone are not all that low. Statistically, 1/3 of the time the actual path will be outside the cone of error. That's better than 3 out of every 10 storms.

I meant at 3 to 5 days. given a reasonable forecast.. not a Fay or Ophelia .. lol

[jonj2040]

26


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[tronbunny]

I apologize if this is old news, but I've been working weird hours and haven't had the luxury of following.
What the heck happened to our Bermuda high?
Isn't this unusual to have an east coast approach this time of the season?
I thought that didn't happen for a few more weeks, yet because of the usual high sitting off our EC.

[Airboy]

Looks like it's struggling to "close the door" on the south part of the circulation, weak west winds. Looking at the last wind data it looks like the center could be reforming a bit south of the last reported center.

[KWT]

Looking at the whole system, it seems to be slowing right down at the moment, the MLC still moving westweards though there does seem to be some expansion to the NW which would back up recon observations of the systems LLC jogging to the NW.

Aric, its not a motion but recon fixes werre NW...whether or not that just them missing the center or not is another matter....

[Gustywind]

[Aric Dunn]

is that another center relocation even farther south.. can you Zoom in a little ?