ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
Looks like NAM has shifted north and now takes it through DR and then skimming the north coast
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recon may have found the center relocated south a good deal away from the last fix...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
You can see it's definitely disorganized in the SW quad. As Aric said, could be trying to reform in the area to the south.

If you look at MIMIC you can see where that may be happening in the near future.


If you look at MIMIC you can see where that may be happening in the near future.

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I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.
Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.
Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
right..but remember, the nam is not a tropical model...we are just using it to look at the synoptics

caneseddy wrote:Looks like NAM has shifted north and now takes it through DR and then skimming the north coast
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It may take Emily more time to really start getting organized.
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Re:
northjaxpro wrote:I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.
Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.
seems most likely that she will not go north of hispanola. at this point anyway
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
'CaneFreak wrote:right..but remember, the nam is not a tropical model...we are just using it to look at the synoptics
caneseddy wrote:Looks like NAM has shifted north and now takes it through DR and then skimming the north coast
Of course, I don't follow what the NAM depicts....but it is indicating a trough that is pulling towards north of the islands, which then seems to lift out
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grrr.. with all the missing data.. no pressure readings nothing.. thanks for the zoom 

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
SFLcane wrote:I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.
I agree. Think we will see a slight shift East.. though I wouldnt be shocked to see the track shift east and west the next few days until the models get a better idea on what Emily will do/
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
SFLcane wrote:I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.
Think the models are pretty close to the likely solution now...maybe a little either side of course but broadly I don't think the models will shift all that much from now unless the initial motion keeps tracking away from where ther models prog.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
caneseddy wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:right..but remember, the nam is not a tropical model...we are just using it to look at the synoptics
caneseddy wrote:Looks like NAM has shifted north and now takes it through DR and then skimming the north coast
Of course, I don't follow what the NAM depicts....but it is indicating a trough that is pulling towards north of the islands, which then seems to lift out
actually if you compare to the last few runs of the NAM this run the trough is lifting faster than even last night. and ridging building in ...
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:northjaxpro wrote:I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.
Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.
seems most likely that she will not go north of hispanola. at this point anyway
Nope. I noticed last night that ridge was a bit stronger and with Emily still in an organizational phase, it would go farther west. So, at this point, I don't foresee the cyclone going north of Hispaniola, unless she pulls a major surprise by slowing down to a crawl now and make the turn northwest sooner than anticipated.
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Re:
northjaxpro wrote:I think it is distinctly possible that Emily may ride the southern coast of Hispaniola and move either through the Mona Passage or across Eastern Cuba as it feels the impacts of the trough at around 68 degrees longitude. I think there is enough ridging at the moment to propel the cyclone at that longitude before she slows down and starts to bend more northwest in the next 48 hours.
Just one of several possibilities of course. I still think it is possible that Emily could have a track similar to David in '79.
So far it is following the Canadian model very closely....all week. Their path is along the Fla West coast and across the state exiting around Jax in five days.
IMO, were it to avoid any of the mountains of Hispanola and/or Cuba, the intensity will have to be increased substantially as that entire area is pretty conducive to growth. Charlie of 04 comes to mind now.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:SFLcane wrote:I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.
I agree. Think we will see a slight shift East.. though I wouldnt be shocked to see the track shift east and west the next few days until the models get a better idea on what Emily will do/
Given the 06z models only moved very slightly East overall, mixed with Emily's continued west movement and now uncertain center placement, I think they will hold the current cone. Consistency might be best right now with all the uncertainty.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
KWT wrote:SFLcane wrote:I expect another shift eastward on track based on guidance on the next advisory soon.
Think the models are pretty close to the likely solution now...maybe a little either side of course but broadly I don't think the models will shift all that much from now unless the initial motion keeps tracking away from where ther models prog.
I agree....there will be a turn to the north, but how far west or east will it be? That is the question for Florida, Gulf Coast, and the East Coast
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