ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[BigA]

I am surprised at the seeming incongruity between the storm's weak recon observations and its apparently robust satellite presentation. That said, I have noticed three things

1)Where Recon is pegging the center (Where the center is) is now colocated with the heavy convection.

2) The storm has slowed its motion--note by a huge amount, but 17 mph to 14 mph, a decrease of close to 20 percent. Makes it less likely that the circulation will race away from convection.

3)The center has moved (reformed?) nearly half a degree to the south from where it was yesterday evening. This makes it less likely to run into Hispaniola, and keeps it that much farther away from the shear to the north.

I'm still not certain at all that the storm will do much intensifying in the short run, as it is still poorly organized, but the three above factors may make intensification more likely.

[KWT]

Its interesting, the system reminds me of Don, in that whilst it was constantly producing deep convection, the lower levels were a constant mess...

That southwards relocation would be significant though if thats the case...may well have multiple centers rotating around each other, hence why the northern fix went NW orginally.

[Aric Dunn]

check out the ridge the NAM has about to slide off the east coast..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

It's all on mimic. And recon did relocate the center towards the sw of the old fix. I knew something wasn't right there. It's westward for this system until it organizes more.

[artist]

my concern is Emily's interaction with the gulf stream.

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest VDM... south re-formation of almost half a degree..

crazyiness

Question is, which VDM will the advisory follow, and how will that affect the track (all models can be thrown out for the new track if the southern relocation is assumed, no?)

[SouthFloridawx]

Are we going to get another NE to SW pass?

[Aric Dunn]

Storms very rarely reform centers anti-poleward.

[tolakram]

NHC has special advisory headline for Emily but no text yet. Hmmm. Just adding to the suspense I suppose.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[northjaxpro]

Blown Away, yeah, comparing to David, I agree that it appears that Emily will move along the southern coast of Hispaniola and move through the Mona Passage or over eastern Cuba. Yeah, David went directly over Hispaniola instead, and really struggled to re-establish its core, but it did and regained hurricane status to actually make a landfall in Palm Beach and then to ride straight up the FL East Coast '79, before making a second landfall just northeast of Savannah, GA.

[psyclone]

I am surprised at the seeming incongruity between the storm's weak recon observations and its apparently robust satellite presentation. That said, I have noticed three things

1)Where Recon is pegging the center (Where the center is) is now colocated with the heavy convection.

2) The storm has slowed its motion--note by a huge amount, but 17 mph to 14 mph, a decrease of close to 20 percent. Makes it less likely that the circulation will race away from convection.

3)The center has moved (reformed?) nearly half a degree to the south from where it was yesterday evening. This makes it less likely to run into Hispaniola, and keeps it that much farther away from the shear to the north.

I'm still not certain at all that the storm will do much intensifying in the short run, as it is still poorly organized, but the three above factors may make intensification more likely.

excellent points. even though the center is lurching around, the fact that it is buried in deep convection is key and makes the storm much more organized now vs the overnight period. it has a rather nice sat presentation now as well.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest VDM... south re-formation of almost half a degree..

crazyiness

Question is, which VDM will the advisory follow, and how will that affect the track (all models can be thrown out for the new track if the southern relocation is assumed, no?)

the southern one seems stronger.. atm

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC has special advisory headline for Emily but no text yet. Hmmm. Just adding to the suspense I suppose.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

It's also showing Forecast/Advisory #1 . Must be a "Storm_Fullname" type glitch. Ugh budgetcuts lol.

[KWT]

check out the ridge the NAM has about to slide off the east coast..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Wow thats going to be close, steering currents still NW at that point but look at the easterlies strengthening just west, I'd imagine Florida landfall based on the NAM.

Relocation may prove significant as well fwiw...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY HESITATES...IT COULD BE REORGANIZING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EMILY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 12 MPH...19 KM/H...LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WAS REPORTED ON
ST. THOMAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.

FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS
BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY. A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 15.7N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1200Z 26.5N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 30.0N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

...EMILY HESITATES...IT COULD BE REORGANIZING...

[bigdan35]

still looks like a close call to Florida and possibly stronger.

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021444
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 29 20110802
143430 1538N 06315W 9772 00283 //// +235 //// 113039 040 /// /// 05
143500 1540N 06315W 9774 00280 //// +235 //// 116039 040 /// /// 05
143530 1542N 06315W 9768 00287 //// +235 //// 114040 041 /// /// 05
143600 1543N 06315W 9764 00291 //// +235 //// 114040 041 /// /// 05
143630 1545N 06315W 9770 00285 //// +237 //// 113041 042 /// /// 05
143700 1547N 06316W 9772 00284 //// +238 //// 115040 042 /// /// 05
143730 1548N 06316W 9772 00285 //// +238 //// 116040 041 /// /// 05
143800 1550N 06316W 9772 00285 //// +237 //// 114040 041 /// /// 05
143830 1552N 06316W 9767 00289 //// +239 //// 113040 042 /// /// 05
143900 1553N 06316W 9768 00288 //// +240 //// 113040 040 /// /// 05
143930 1555N 06316W 9770 00286 //// +242 //// 112040 041 /// /// 05
144000 1557N 06316W 9768 00289 //// +241 //// 112039 041 /// /// 05
144030 1559N 06316W 9770 00286 //// +240 //// 112040 040 /// /// 05
144100 1600N 06317W 9764 00293 //// +241 //// 110038 040 /// /// 05
144130 1600N 06319W 9773 00285 //// +241 //// 107035 036 /// /// 05
144200 1559N 06320W 9772 00285 //// +242 //// 108035 036 /// /// 05
144230 1558N 06321W 9769 00288 //// +240 //// 107036 036 /// /// 05
144300 1556N 06322W 9769 00287 //// +240 //// 109036 037 /// /// 05
144330 1555N 06323W 9770 00285 //// +240 //// 108038 038 /// /// 05
144400 1554N 06324W 9769 00286 //// +240 //// 108037 039 /// /// 05
$$
;
Edit: Can someone please take over? TNX!

[TheEuropean]

Latest from NHC: stationary!

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Miami Storm Tracker]

From that visual it would seem that it would stay off the south fla coast. But then again is the high become strong enough to force it back due west?