ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Bocadude85]

She does not look stationary to me

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Portastorm]

Martinique

Excellent. Thanks for the report and please keep us posted.

[Aric Dunn]

Heading is about 290 degrees.

of emily.. ? cant make that assumption.. the recon fixes are not in a line right now that are bouncing forward backwards south north... lol actually she just made a cyclonic loop according the fixes.

To be fair the old center pretty much tracked the same heading so its certainly possible that 290 is a good true estimate.

here is the recon fixes.. and the loops the center did.. 290 is not what I see and cant even be assumed until some real motion starts..

rough motion...

[Ivanhater]

Wow,

And I always watch your post, you always seem to know when and where a storm is going, so if you don't know no one does.

I may get lucky a few times but that's about it

[madinina]

We are in red alert for rain, but in the south of island, the weather is like before storm.

[Aric Dunn]

loops loopy... lol

[jonj2040]

33


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[gatorcane]

I see an organizing cyclone. Look at the huge difference between yesterday at this time and today. There may be some issues at the lower-levels but that should correct over the next 12 to 24 hours. If it can avoid Hispaniola, no reason why we will not see steady strengthening.

[Gustywind]

Martinique

How are you my friend? What's the latest news in your island? I knew that strong showers and tstorms, muslides, floodings, rivers out of their blanket are occuring . The red vigilance is always active ? Things have calm down i hope...

[KWT]

that trough sure is digging down through Florida.. was it forecasted to dig this far south?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

It is but thats pretty much what was expected.

The MLC at the very least still going close to due west, maybe 275.

Low levels still a mess, till that gets sorted its not going to reflect the impredssive organisation seen above the low levels.

[jonj2040]

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 15:05:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°16'N 63°59'W (15.2667N 63.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 257 miles (414 km) to the SSE (148°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 44kts (From the ESE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 307m (1,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar and Wind
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:47:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[SouthDadeFish]

Notice how the eastern part of the storm barely had any south winds. They're virtually all east winds. Not impressive at all. Very surprising if you look at satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow,

And I always watch your post, you always seem to know when and where a storm is going, so if you don't know no one does.

I may get lucky a few times but that's about it

besides all this re-organizing stuff the motion will be probably 275 to 280 for the next 2 days after that ... dont think anyone really has a good handle..

[tronbunny]

I really do rely on the information here to either calm or prod into action, family and friends.
I just got a pooh-pooh from a 50+ year resident of Central Florida...
He says "ha. It's only supposed to graze the coast as Cat1 or cat2. I'm not even gona think about it. I'd go to work in that"
What do y'all think of that?
Needless to say, I'm watching the recons, models and analysis here, because I'm more likely to see the best course/intensity at least 6hrs before the general public.
I'm fairly certain this time tomorrow we'll have a firmer grip on the synoptics to speculate more intelligently for landfall(s).

[Aric Dunn]

gfs rolling in... at least it has a system this time.. lol

[Gustywind]

We are in red alert for rain, but in the south of island, the weather is like before storm.

OK thanks for this info. Hope things will calm down. Since 2 hours it's impossible to go on Metteofrance Guadeloupe or Martinica weather site... maybe too much people want to connect .

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021534
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 34 20110802
152430 1600N 06443W 9772 00273 //// +239 //// 088028 029 /// /// 05
152500 1601N 06444W 9419 00604 //// +213 //// 090027 028 /// /// 05
152530 1603N 06446W 8937 01067 //// +195 //// 084029 030 /// /// 05
152600 1604N 06447W 8533 01466 //// +182 //// 078027 027 /// /// 05
152630 1605N 06448W 8439 01562 //// +176 //// 073024 026 /// /// 05
152700 1607N 06449W 8430 01573 //// +175 //// 075024 024 /// /// 05
152730 1608N 06451W 8432 01570 //// +175 //// 079026 026 /// /// 05
152800 1609N 06452W 8430 01572 //// +174 //// 081027 028 /// /// 05
152830 1611N 06453W 8432 01569 //// +160 //// 081030 031 /// /// 05
152900 1612N 06454W 8409 01592 //// +166 //// 079025 028 /// /// 05
152930 1613N 06456W 8405 01598 //// +175 //// 078022 022 /// /// 05
153000 1615N 06457W 8413 01592 //// +175 //// 087025 027 /// /// 05
153030 1616N 06456W 8396 01608 //// +171 //// 089026 026 /// /// 05
153100 1618N 06456W 8412 01594 //// +168 //// 098027 028 /// /// 05
153130 1620N 06456W 8413 01593 //// +161 //// 096029 031 /// /// 05
153200 1622N 06455W 8413 01592 //// +174 //// 095031 031 /// /// 05
153230 1624N 06455W 8409 01599 //// +171 //// 099030 030 /// /// 05
153300 1626N 06455W 8410 01596 //// +168 //// 094031 031 /// /// 05
153330 1628N 06454W 8413 01593 //// +170 //// 095032 034 /// /// 05
153400 1630N 06454W 8408 01598 //// +150 //// 094032 032 /// /// 05
$$
;

[SFLcane]

45kt surface winds...Hmm

[artist]

We are in red alert for rain, but in the south of island, the weather is like before storm.

that eery stillness I just hate before a storm. Good luck to you! It looks like you could get around 2-4 inches of rain there according the the NHC -

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

[Aric Dunn]

has a healthy system this time.. good a actual useful run