ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Aric / Ivan

all kidding aside I do follow both of your post as well as WX57 and MW who no longer post. You guys seems to really know your stuff, are we still looking at a real shot of a keys south fla land fall ?

[Dave]

Just dropping this one in for you.

000
URNT12 KNHC 021525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 02/15:05:40Z
B. 15 deg 16 min N
063 deg 59 min W
C. NA
D. 45 kt
E. 041 deg 34 nm
F. 107 deg 44 kt
G. 042 deg 39 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C / 307 m
J. 24 C / 304 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 123 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0505A EMILY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 14:47:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[KWT]

Notice how the eastern part of the storm barely had any south winds. They're virtually all east winds. Not impressive at all. Very surprising if you look at satellite.

Yep not very impressive it has to be said, wonder why these systems this year are struggling to get going at the lower levels...

Recon fixes showed it gained 0.1N and 0.25W, sounds reasonable...

[cycloneye]

45kt surface winds...Hmm

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:47:20Z

[hurricaneCW]

The MLC looks amazing on satellite, probably world's apart from the lower levels, but I think the low levels will eventually get figured out. Who knows, maybe this thing will come a major hurricane by the end of the week.

[Gustywind]

[jonj2040]

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[ozonepete]

Heading is about 290 degrees.

of emily.. ? cant make that assumption.. the recon fixes are not in a line right now that are bouncing forward backwards south north... lol actually she just made a cyclonic loop according the fixes.

And looping is what a "stationary" storm often does.

[Sanibel]

This is weird. Last night at 3 it looked like there was an exposed LLC shooting out ahead. Now there's a broader feature closer to the convection that appears to be moving more slowly. ???

[petit_bois]

Aric / Ivan

all kidding aside I do follow both of your post as well as WX57 and MW who no longer post. You guys seems to really know your stuff, are we still looking at a real shot of a keys south fla land fall ?

NHC keeps a TS offshore... but know one knows for sure yet.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is something funny:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 AUG 2011 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 15:17:27 N Lon : 63:31:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.2mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.3 4.3

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Raw estimates support hurricane strength... And this thing barely has a LLC

[SFLcane]

45kt surface winds...Hmm

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:47:20Z

Could very well be intensifying.

[gatorcane]

Well the eastward shifts in the NHC track are happening as I thought. There are alot of factors at play here so it will be interesting to sit back and watch how this plays out.

One thing for sure is that the well-advertised weakness is going to happen now that nearly every reliable model shows it and in the short-range.

If she deepens in the Caribbean over the next 48 hours, I can' see how it won't slow down and start hitting the weakness with a NNW movement.

Factors such as how deep Emily is, how much Hispaniola impacts it (if at all), are going to determine where in that cone she ends up)

[Aric Dunn]

Aric / Ivan

all kidding aside I do follow both of your post as well as WX57 and MW who no longer post. You guys seems to really know your stuff, are we still looking at a real shot of a keys south fla land fall ?

yes. too early to say exactly how the ridging trough placement will unfold. but Florida should feel its effects

[JPmia]

Aric / Ivan

all kidding aside I do follow both of your post as well as WX57 and MW who no longer post. You guys seems to really know your stuff, are we still looking at a real shot of a keys south fla land fall ?

MWatkins is posting here:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=111336

[blp]

System appears to look better today on satellite but model support has waned and the big two Euro and GFS have dissipation. I am interested to see if the 12z GFS comes back. All the other models except for the GFDL and HWRF are very weak. I am going to hold off on getting too interested in this system for now because it has been a tease so far and could turn out to be another Don. We will see....

[Aric Dunn]

So far GFS SW of 06z bby like 100 miles and stronger

[JPmia]

The NHC discussion says GFS & EURO dissipate the storm around haiti:

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.

Is this based of the 12z runs?

[Aric Dunn]

by 30 hours its about 100 miles west of 6z postion still heading wnw

[Dave]

Take a break guys/gals...good job today!

000
URNT11 KNHC 021539
97779 15340 30165 64908 15400 09034 16//3 /2506
41235
RMK AF305 0505A EMILY OB 18
LAST REPORT
;

Mission Over