ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

The NHC discussion says GFS & EURO dissipate the storm around haiti:

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.

Is this based of the 12z runs?

Nope..12z run actually makes Emily stronger. The models are just having a tough time.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal030.gif

[KWT]

The MLC looks amazing on satellite, probably world's apart from the lower levels, but I think the low levels will eventually get figured out. Who knows, maybe this thing will come a major hurricane by the end of the week.

Well we will hacve to see, as you say the MLC looks good, and to be fair its been very organised now for the last 3-4 days...

Recon fixes do suggest a 290 motion but whether or not that is true motion we will have to see!

[Aric Dunn]

Also between 24 and 30 hours GFS quickly lifts trough out and build 500mb back in... weakness still but smaller

[hurricanedude]

if she never makes cane status...thats 0/5....anyone have stats on if tht would be a record?

[madinina]

Hi Gustywind, i think it's exactly for MF. We are now in orange alert.
Inondations, but usualy for the season. I think Emily "aspire" inhale? winds.

[caneseddy]

At 36 hours, approaching Hispaniola with high pressure starting to build in

At 42 hours, right on the coastline of DR..one thing to note, this run has Emily stronger

[Aric Dunn]

The MLC looks amazing on satellite, probably world's apart from the lower levels, but I think the low levels will eventually get figured out. Who knows, maybe this thing will come a major hurricane by the end of the week.

Well we will hacve to see, as you say the MLC looks good, and to be fair its been very organised now for the last 3-4 days...

Recon fixes do suggest a 290 motion but whether or not that is true motion we will have to see!

where do you see 290... there has not been enough consistent center fix to do that.. hence the stationary by NHC.

[underthwx]

In order for Emily to even make a trek northward there needs to be a big enough breakdown in the huge ridge....is that correct?

[Sanibel]

Don't forget the Caribbean effect (the zone). It is early August still.

I guess a stall should allow the synoptic to move out ahead of Emily changing the eventual track.

My guess is you won't get two Don busts in a row...

[vbhoutex]

Gusty check your pms!!

[SunnyThoughts]

Morning everyone, wow so Emily went from 17mph to almost stationary in the last 8 hours or so? Just read the last advisory.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS breaks the ridge down between days 1-2.

500mb GFS
http://tinyurl.com/3u9aqv8

[Gustywind]

Hi Gustywind, i think it's exactly for MF. We are now in orange alert.
Inondations, but usualy for the season. I think Emily "aspire" inhale? winds.

Ok thanks for this info.

[caneseddy]

At 48 hours emerging off the north coast of Hispaniola..close to Turks and Caicos

[Aric Dunn]

GFS breaks the ridge down between days 1-2.

500mb GFS
http://tinyurl.com/3u9aqv8

well the trough weakened the ridge.. but from about 30 hrs on has been lifting out quick and ridging actually building in NNW of it.... still heading wnw at 48 hours..

[SFLcane]

GFS breaks the ridge down between days 1-2.

500mb GFS
http://tinyurl.com/3u9aqv8

Looks like it will recurve. Doesn't really do much with it intensity wise either.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I'm gonna stick a rule in my firewall or hosts file that blocks these meteo france images. God is that decieving.

[Fyzn94]

Gusty check your pms!!

A storm can't look much more classic than this.

[caneseddy]

Moving WNW and reintensifying in the SE Bahamas..looks like the ridge is starting to build in

[sphelps8681]

has a healthy system this time.. good a actual useful run

Does it take in to account the recent stall?