ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Runs up the east side of the Bahamas on 12x GFS. Looks like another shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley after 90 hrs will scoop it out and away from the coast. This run also moves the system across hispanola on its east side contrary to the NHC track - seems pretty quick.

Yeah, as you say it hits E.Hispaniola...needs something close ro 300 degrees for that...not impossible if the recon fixes of 290 is close...

[Aric Dunn]

117 hours up and out.. no trough just drifts north enough to feel the Zonal westerlies.. not a very conclusive run... when systems stall like that... anything can happen ... also it seems its a strong storm this run... it could be that it would be able to beef up the ridging to the north..

[fci]

Tropical Storm Emily has stalled south of Puerto Rico and at least two computer forecast models suggest it will dissipate near the island of Hispaniola, according to the National Hurricane Center...


just read this on Bloomberg news site.......

Not the case. The GFS and GFDL were predicting dissipation in previous runs, but not anymore.

I thought that the last NHC Disco said it too.

[KWT]

Also looks to me like the MLC and the convection is starting to gain latitude as well now...maybe 285 or so.

[ronjon]

If Emily makes that turn to the NW just 100 miles further west, it puts her on the east coast of FL. Let's see what the other globals do at 12z.

[fci]

I'm gonna stick a rule in my firewall or hosts file that blocks these meteo france images. God is that decieving.

LOL.
I know, it seems that all of their images make a system look amazing.
Think they just use stock pictures??

[KWT]

Yeah but the latest NHC was based on OLD data...namely the 00z and 06z data.

Moves NNW between 96-120hrs but as others have said the westerlies are quite far south at the moment so where as normally SC/NC would be probably hit, they get a lucky escape...

[Aric Dunn]

where do you see 290... there has not been enough consistent center fix to do that.. hence the stationary by NHC.

Just looking at the alst recon fix AND the center fixes before it relocated, both were between say 285-290 which makes sense given the model forecast.

In truth though at the moment that is only an educated guess...have to get more recon in to have more certainty.

unfortunately recon was not out there the whole and we dont know what it was doing before... could have been reforming multiple times all night... the motion has basically been due west if you just follow the convection... which at this time is a good idea being that the center keeps re forming under it..

[hurricaneCW]

Also the time of year would favor more ridging, if this was late August or September, I'd be more inclined to believe in weak ridging and a lot more troughiness.

[Aric Dunn]

I see barely any north component... the convection is expanding in almost all direction and can be quite deceiving. but look at images from this morning and now and its almost due west..

[KWT]

Also the time of year would favor more ridging, if this was late August or September, I'd be more inclined to believe in weak ridging and a lot more troughiness.

Pattern is so close to last year its untrue, that death ridge over the US just does want to budge for anything...

Bahamas are going to have a very close call, a strengthening system likely looking at the GFS past Hispaniola, though i'd be amazed if strengthens as rapidly is it wants...

Besides all sorts xof funky things can happen overland!

[KWT]

I see barely any north component... the convection is expanding in almost all direction and can be quite deceiving. but look at images from this morning and now and its almost due west..

honestly think its starting to gain latitude, of course will take quite a few hours more of data to get a good idea if thats the case but I think I can see a 285-290 type motion now in the last hour or so...only a new development IMO.

[Bocadude85]

Banding features may be starting to develop, and it seems the storm as a whole has more of a spin to it:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Yea not looking to bad.. also seems to be heading due w to me

[KWT]

One interesting thing to note is the way the northern part of the convection is flattening out, sure suggestive of a ridge to the north of the system.

[joefox11]

Hi, everybody. Just a question. Here in Puerto Rico the government is holding a press conference and the national weather service spokesman said if Emily keeps stationary for 4 or 5 hours, it might get stronger enough to get close to Cat 1. Is that a realistic scenario with this poorly organized system?

He also mentioned that a stronger system might track more to the north. Any thoughts on this?

Thanks!

PS Conditions here in my hometown in the nothern-central part of the island are overcast skies, moderate tp a strong ocassionally breeze. No rain as of right now.

First,welcome to storm2k. I also live in Puerto Rico. Anything is possible in the tropics in terms of intensity as many factors play a roll. A stronger system moves more to the WNW or NW especially,if a trough deepens southward as is progged by models.

Thanks Cycloneye. I hope it starts moving along again, and things don't get worse for PR.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like we could be seeing the start of a trend to the east.

[KWT]

Bocadude85, possibly but I'd like to see another few models that are NOT based off the GFS initial data (SHIPS, GFDL and HWRF all based off GFS data I believe) and see where they are going.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Storms can really deviate over land which will cause a shift in track.

[Ivanhater]

Recon can barely find the center and we have some people trying to fix a movement

[Aric Dunn]

Sure wish PR radar would come back up.. so I can actually track it..been down for 2 hours