ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[caneseddy]

Let's see what the Euro will say....remember it had Emily very weak as well in its earlier run, so let's see what it says

[Aric Dunn]

Recon can barely find the center and we have some people trying to fix a movement

Thats what im trying to figure out...

[Blown Away]

I'm hung up on why some models have a very sharp right turn, something tells me Emily will get pulled N but not enough to recurve and get left behind w/ a ridge building in, JMHO.

[micktooth]

Sure wish PR radar would come back up.. so I can actually track it..been down for 2 hours

Found this on Wunderground for what it's worth: "MESSAGE DATE: AUG 02 2011 14:58:00 THE FAA/NWS SAN JUAN WSR-88D (TJUA) IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO AN APPARENT RDA PROBLEM. THE LOCAL FAA TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL BE GOING TO THE RADAR SITE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THAT THIS OUTAGE MAY CAUSE. BCS/AAS"

[Javlin]

Quote:One interesting thing to note is the way the northern part of the convection is flattening out, sure suggestive of a ridge to the north of the system.

Now wouldn't that suggest a basic W movement?

Recon can barely find the center and we have some people trying to fix a movement

The cloud pattern as you mention and others suggest W for alittle longer how long don't know.I guess till the ridge runs out

[Fego]

Sure wish PR radar would come back up.. so I can actually track it..been down for 2 hours

I hope this link help you track it down.
http://www.meteo.an/SatRadarImages/Img_ ... i_Loop.asp

[Gustywind]

Latest Visible floater

[Aric Dunn]

Sure wish PR radar would come back up.. so I can actually track it..been down for 2 hours

Found this on Wunderground for what it's worth: "MESSAGE DATE: AUG 02 2011 14:58:00 THE FAA/NWS SAN JUAN WSR-88D (TJUA) IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO AN APPARENT RDA PROBLEM. THE LOCAL FAA TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL BE GOING TO THE RADAR SITE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THAT THIS OUTAGE MAY CAUSE. BCS/AAS"

how convenient .. thanks

[maxx9512]

At what point will Emily have to start a northwest turn in order to keep on the
track laid out by the NHC? The direction has been westerly and if this keeps up there has to be a point
the track would have to shift left. I am pretty sure systems don't make 90 degree turns. I guess my question is how much longer or at what spot on the map would the turn have to start to keep on track? Hope this makes sense to be answered!

[AHS2011]

Now what would you say the threat level of a Southern New England landfall is on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest?

[KWT]

Quote:One interesting thing to note is the way the northern part of the convection is flattening out, sure suggestive of a ridge to the north of the system.

Now wouldn't that suggest a basic W movement?

To a degree yes, but then again the models all pretty much suggest WNW for another 36hrs so that makes sense for it to be flattened on the northern side, esp remember thats where the dry air is as well...

maxx9512, about 285-290 would be needed for it to hit Hispaniola where the NHC suggests, after that is a bit pointless to even think about

[Blown Away]

Recon can barely find the center and we have some people trying to fix a movement

The LLC may be stationary but the convection envelope appears to be moving W, maybe just expansion. IMO, stationary is usually pretty obvious, in this case everything appears to be on the move. Weird to go from 14 mph to zero w/ no apparent cause?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Anny ships and bouy reports from this area?

[Javlin]

At what point will Emily have to start a northwest turn in order to keep on the
track laid out by the NHC? The direction has been westerly and if this keeps up there has to be a point
the track would have to shift left. I am pretty sure systems don't make 90 degree turns. I guess my question is how much longer or at what spot on the map would the turn have to start to keep on track? Hope this makes sense to be answered!

They can but they about have to come to crawl then turn.I always look at storms as mass many many little water dropletts moving in unisom.The air about us is considered a fluid hence ever how small the particle it has mass.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Now what would you say the threat level of a Southern New England landfall is on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest?

At this point in the game, I would say nearly 0%, so "1", since ultimately this will either dissipate over land in the south, or take the recurve path and head out into the Atlantic around the high pressure system. Ther eis a trough digging down that this will be shunted in front of. If it misses that connection, there is another one behind it, reducing the likelihood of a New England storm out of this.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Now what would you say the threat level of a Southern New England landfall is on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest?

1 out of 10, the first trough would have to not fully connect with Emily and only pull her north into the Bahamas and then there would be a chance that the second trough could pull her into Southern New England. It is a long shot right now, imo.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SunnyThoughts]

Nice looking presentation for a storm where recon had a tough time finding the center. And going from 17 mph to stationary since I went to bed at 3 am? Uhm, did it hit a brick wall or something?

[KWT]

Now what would you say the threat level of a Southern New England landfall is on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest?

Pretty much no chance. the upper westerlies are pretty far south for the time of yeasr its got to be said...

The more I look at the loop the more convinced I am this is starting to gain abit of latitude.

[Javlin]

Quote:One interesting thing to note is the way the northern part of the convection is flattening out, sure suggestive of a ridge to the north of the system.

Now wouldn't that suggest a basic W movement?

To a degree yes, but then again the models all pretty much suggest WNW for another 36hrs so that makes sense for it to be flattened on the northern side, esp remember thats where the dry air is as well...

maxx9512, about 285-290 would be needed for it to hit Hispaniola where the NHC suggests, after that is a bit pointless to even think about

But yea KWT the models had Don all over the N/side of the Islands also and it just never panned out.The models are a useful tool but come later today we are still around 15-15.5N the models met nothing compared to the visible eye.Maybe they(models) will prevail but they always seem to have a slight r/basis?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon can barely find the center and we have some people trying to fix a movement

The LLC may be stationary but the convection envelope appears to be moving W, maybe just expansion. IMO, stationary is usually pretty obvious, in this case everything appears to be on the move. Weird to go from 14 mph to zero w/ no apparent cause?

yeah westerly it is...and it only stationary becasue it was reforming..