ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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hard to say ... could have cut across south florida. then off the east coast.
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- Bocadude85
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Re:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:I am not buying into the rightward shift. When the storm continued westward, despite calls for a more WNW path, the models adjusted to the west. That made sense. The swing to a Right bias was from bad feed data last night, and the next run was just that same data run again. The next runs should be a little better, but may not incorporate the new center location or the proper forward speed and direction of Emily, as it was too messy to determine. We probably won't see a clean set of runs until midnight tonight to get a better idea on what Emily may do next.
I suspect if we see RI, then a more northerly path to Hispanola would be likely. However, if she still strengthens at a normal progression, after her slow down, continued direction west, and center relocations to the south, that her likely path should shift more to the west. I suspect that Haiti will get a lot of rain, but receive no more than a southern graze from Emily. A path of Cuba looks more likely IMO.
I suspect a stronger system hitting Cuba too, at least a Hurricane 1, if not a weak 2.
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I actually think the NHC track is going to be pretty close to the ultimate track of Emily.
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Very weak CMC, so we have Nogaps and CMC which is weak and the GFS which strengthens on its 12z...
CMC+GFS now east of Florida BUT they are probably the two most progressive models...Does seem to be a hint of an eastward trend though.
CMC+GFS now east of Florida BUT they are probably the two most progressive models...Does seem to be a hint of an eastward trend though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
Pretty sure it skims South Florida then East... Not sure if it makes landfall though...


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Finally the radar is back !!!moving basically west 275 to 280 and seems to be developing a small inner core..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:rapid scan mode. Looks like it hasn't quite decided on a center yet, will be interesting to see what recon finds within the hour.
Yeah going to be very interesting to see what recon shows!
Should get a better idea of where the center is hopefully and motion.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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yeah looks like it goes through south florida
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- AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
Can someone post the SFWMD models plot?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
KWT wrote:tolakram wrote:rapid scan mode. Looks like it hasn't quite decided on a center yet, will be interesting to see what recon finds within the hour.
Yeah going to be very interesting to see what recon shows!
Should get a better idea of where the center is hopefully and motion.
they in the air ?
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Very close call with regards to Florida on the 12z CMC, either way its very weak on that run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Storms can really deviate over land which will cause a shift in track.
That is true..Irene in 1999 was supposed to track east of Florida when it crossed southern coast of Cuba as a Tropical Storm..when it emerged north of Cuba the center had shifted west and passed just west of the metro areas as a Cat 1, taking a lot of people here by surprise
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- TreasureIslandFLGal
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Re: Re:
Bocadude85 wrote:TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:I am not buying into the rightward shift... ...I suspect a stronger system hitting Cuba too, at least a Hurricane 1, if not a weak 2.
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I actually think the NHC track is going to be pretty close to the ultimate track of Emily.
I give huge props to the NHC, and they are usually very good in the 3 day for sure, and better every year in the 5 day. However, even they stated that there was a lot of questions out there regarding Em's future. They issue their line based on the model consensus, with a caveat. They left themselves plenty of wiggle room. I suspect they will wiggle back to the left again.
After the IV data gets rolled in (is that tonight or tomorrow night?), those should be the best model runs.
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Chrissy & Ligeia


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the land interaction part is going to be tough.. if it get stuck on the north side of DR mountains.. kind of like debbie than it can move way more westerly.. there are so many possibilities with it right now.. im just focusing on 2 days... where does it come ashore on hispanola... after that is too up in the air really speculate.
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- hurricanefloyd5
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Finally the radar is back !!!moving basically west 275 to 280 and seems to be developing a small inner core..
Dosethis mean it is well on its way of becoming a Hurricane aric or no?
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:KWT wrote:tolakram wrote:rapid scan mode. Looks like it hasn't quite decided on a center yet, will be interesting to see what recon finds within the hour.
Yeah going to be very interesting to see what recon shows!
Should get a better idea of where the center is hopefully and motion.
they in the air ?
Yes
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- HURAKAN
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927
URNT15 KNHC 021726
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 06 20110802
171600 1649N 06326W 9758 00300 0098 +238 +193 100032 033 034 001 03
171630 1648N 06327W 9773 00286 0097 +237 +194 100032 033 035 001 03
171700 1647N 06329W 9766 00292 0097 +235 +194 096031 033 034 000 00
171730 1645N 06330W 9771 00287 0097 +235 +194 102032 033 034 000 03
171800 1644N 06331W 9771 00288 0097 +237 +194 107034 035 034 000 00
171830 1643N 06332W 9772 00285 0096 +237 +194 106034 034 034 000 03
171900 1642N 06334W 9770 00287 0095 +237 +194 106034 035 034 000 03
171930 1641N 06335W 9768 00289 0094 +239 +195 106032 033 035 000 03
172000 1640N 06336W 9773 00282 0093 +240 +195 105033 034 034 000 03
172030 1638N 06337W 9771 00285 0093 +240 +196 108032 032 034 000 03
172100 1637N 06338W 9770 00285 0092 +240 +196 110033 034 034 000 00
172130 1636N 06340W 9774 00281 0092 +240 +197 109032 033 033 000 03
172200 1635N 06341W 9768 00287 0091 +240 +198 110032 033 033 000 00
172230 1634N 06342W 9763 00289 0090 +240 +198 108032 033 034 000 03
172300 1632N 06343W 9770 00282 0090 +240 +199 106032 033 034 001 03
172330 1631N 06345W 9771 00281 0089 +240 +199 107033 034 034 000 00
172400 1630N 06346W 9769 00283 0089 +240 +199 106033 034 034 000 03
172430 1629N 06347W 9773 00278 0088 +240 +200 107033 034 035 001 03
172500 1628N 06348W 9772 00278 0088 +240 +200 107034 034 035 000 03
172530 1627N 06350W 9777 00273 0086 +242 +200 106034 036 035 001 00
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 021726
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 06 20110802
171600 1649N 06326W 9758 00300 0098 +238 +193 100032 033 034 001 03
171630 1648N 06327W 9773 00286 0097 +237 +194 100032 033 035 001 03
171700 1647N 06329W 9766 00292 0097 +235 +194 096031 033 034 000 00
171730 1645N 06330W 9771 00287 0097 +235 +194 102032 033 034 000 03
171800 1644N 06331W 9771 00288 0097 +237 +194 107034 035 034 000 00
171830 1643N 06332W 9772 00285 0096 +237 +194 106034 034 034 000 03
171900 1642N 06334W 9770 00287 0095 +237 +194 106034 035 034 000 03
171930 1641N 06335W 9768 00289 0094 +239 +195 106032 033 035 000 03
172000 1640N 06336W 9773 00282 0093 +240 +195 105033 034 034 000 03
172030 1638N 06337W 9771 00285 0093 +240 +196 108032 032 034 000 03
172100 1637N 06338W 9770 00285 0092 +240 +196 110033 034 034 000 00
172130 1636N 06340W 9774 00281 0092 +240 +197 109032 033 033 000 03
172200 1635N 06341W 9768 00287 0091 +240 +198 110032 033 033 000 00
172230 1634N 06342W 9763 00289 0090 +240 +198 108032 033 034 000 03
172300 1632N 06343W 9770 00282 0090 +240 +199 106032 033 034 001 03
172330 1631N 06345W 9771 00281 0089 +240 +199 107033 034 034 000 00
172400 1630N 06346W 9769 00283 0089 +240 +199 106033 034 034 000 03
172430 1629N 06347W 9773 00278 0088 +240 +200 107033 034 035 001 03
172500 1628N 06348W 9772 00278 0088 +240 +200 107034 034 035 000 03
172530 1627N 06350W 9777 00273 0086 +242 +200 106034 036 035 001 00
$$
;
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- southerngale
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Adam... this image is saved. The link to check for updates later is below it.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The only thing I can see thats keeping this from really going at the current time seems to be SAL and dry air to the north
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