ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[HURAKAN]

[SeminoleWind]

120 hours slowly heading out

[Jimsot]

Well Emily keeps spitting out outflow boundaries to the west. Looking terrible right now, but maybe she's tighter under the center. I agree she never stalled; the weak llc kept movely along, but she has slowed up some. Th ings can change, but she still is suffering from shear and some dry air

Whatever she spit out just came past here on the SE coast of Anguilla. We went from breezy to gales, rain, and knocked over patio furniture.

[KWT]

Hmmm interesting, the recon obs seems to shown a fair few west winds SW of the center we've been tracking...

Can't rule out another center relocation happening....

[wxman57]

Recon now appears to be finding a very broad open center to the southwest and west of that vortex message.

[KWT]

Recon now appears to be finding a very broad open center to the southwest and west of that vortex message.

Do you think the center maybe starting to relocate again, it has previous with moves like this...

[Blown Away]

Well, it DID go from 15.3 to 15.6 north since 11 AM

And from 63.6 to 64.8 west since 11am, no "stationary" IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

If it relocates there, the track will definately have to be shifted west in the 24hr forecast

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021826
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 12 20110802
181600 1444N 06532W 9770 00266 0071 +240 +217 243010 010 /// /// 03
181630 1444N 06530W 9770 00266 0071 +240 +216 237010 010 008 000 00
181700 1444N 06529W 9770 00265 0070 +240 +215 238010 010 009 000 00
181730 1444N 06527W 9770 00266 0070 +240 +215 235010 011 008 000 03
181800 1444N 06525W 9773 00263 0070 +244 +214 230011 011 007 000 00
181830 1444N 06524W 9770 00265 0069 +245 +214 237011 012 009 000 00
181900 1444N 06522W 9772 00264 0070 +245 +214 238011 011 009 000 00
181930 1444N 06520W 9770 00265 0070 +241 +214 234011 011 009 000 00
182000 1444N 06519W 9773 00263 0069 +244 +214 229011 011 007 000 00
182030 1444N 06517W 9770 00266 0069 +245 +214 228011 011 007 000 00
182100 1444N 06515W 9770 00265 0069 +245 +215 224011 011 008 000 00
182130 1444N 06514W 9770 00265 0069 +245 +215 225011 012 010 000 00
182200 1445N 06512W 9770 00265 0069 +245 +214 224012 013 010 000 00
182230 1445N 06510W 9772 00264 0070 +245 +214 222012 013 009 000 00
182300 1445N 06509W 9771 00264 0069 +245 +215 217012 013 010 000 00
182330 1445N 06507W 9770 00265 0069 +245 +215 218012 013 010 000 00
182400 1445N 06505W 9772 00264 0069 +245 +215 216012 013 009 000 00
182430 1445N 06504W 9769 00266 0069 +245 +215 218013 014 008 000 00
182500 1445N 06502W 9773 00262 0069 +245 +215 216013 014 009 000 00
182530 1445N 06500W 9768 00266 0069 +243 +215 217013 014 011 000 00
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

Seems like the models are coming to a solution that takes Emily over the Bahamas and then just east of Florida.. but it may be a very close call.

[HURAKAN]

[jlauderdal]

Oh yeah there is a weak ridge, but its not the beast that shunted Jeanne all the way back due west, its a small ridge that could prevent a total recurve and maybe bend the system WNW.

Think the models are still too far east in the short term looking at the motion at the moment.

could get a system into jacksonville which is very rare but it takes a setup like this to have a chance

[Airboy]

Yeah, the winds from recon suggest that the center is more SW than the last position they had in the last vortex.

[KWT]

ECM suggesting a close call, seems like we have very good general agreement tonight with the models...now watch Emily throw a wobbler and not track as they want!

[jlauderdal]

Seems like the models are coming to a solution that takes Emily over the Bahamas and then just east of Florida.. but it may be a very close call.

close enough to put a good scare into all the fossils living in boca

[OuterBanker]

Canseddy, what you posted has emily off east coast of fl then out to sea. Thankfully most models are still taking it out before NC and no landfall.

[chris_fit]

Yeah, the winds from recon suggest that the center is more SW than the last position they had in the last vortex.

I don't think that's accurate.... Compare the VDM from last mission to the one from this one... WWNW

[Sanibel]

You can't ignore how the CDO is in obvious directly-connected rotation with the surface feature.


I think we are seeing "Caribbean death zone" effects.

[caneseddy]

Canseddy, what you posted has emily off east coast of fl then out to sea. Thankfully most models are still taking it out before NC and no landfall.

Yeah I realized that...for some reason, when I clicked on the 12z run earlier, the ones in the Gulf came up...I guess I must have forgotten to refresh

[Bocadude85]

ECM suggesting a close call, seems like we have very good general agreement tonight with the models...now watch Emily throw a wobbler and not track as they want!

And if recon does confirm that the center is farther west then you could shift the Euro track 50-100 miles farther west and then the system would then be inland in S. Fla.