ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ronjon]

Yes the models are coming into a good consensus from just off the FL east coast to the eastern side of the Bahamas. Not a whole lot of margin for error though and still 3-4 days away but they are narrowing in on it. Hispanola is still the wide card.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021836
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 13 20110802
182600 1445N 06459W 9773 00262 0069 +242 +215 217014 014 014 000 00
182630 1445N 06457W 9772 00263 0069 +243 +215 215014 014 015 000 00
182700 1445N 06455W 9770 00265 0069 +243 +214 218014 016 016 000 00
182730 1445N 06454W 9776 00260 0070 +241 +214 207015 015 015 000 03
182800 1445N 06452W 9770 00265 0069 +243 +214 204016 016 012 000 00
182830 1445N 06450W 9769 00267 0070 +241 +214 209016 016 015 001 00
182900 1445N 06449W 9772 00265 0070 +241 +214 211016 016 018 002 00
182930 1445N 06447W 9768 00268 0071 +245 +214 208016 017 022 002 00
183000 1445N 06445W 9770 00266 0071 +245 +214 208017 018 022 001 00
183030 1445N 06444W 9774 00264 0071 +245 +213 205018 018 018 002 00
183100 1445N 06442W 9770 00267 0071 +245 +214 205018 019 016 000 00
183130 1445N 06440W 9772 00266 0072 +245 +214 202018 018 016 000 00
183200 1445N 06439W 9770 00268 0072 +245 +215 202018 018 016 000 00
183230 1445N 06437W 9770 00268 0073 +247 +215 203019 019 016 000 00
183300 1445N 06435W 9772 00268 0073 +247 +216 204018 019 013 000 00
183330 1445N 06434W 9771 00269 0073 +247 +216 200018 018 019 000 00
183400 1445N 06432W 9766 00274 0074 +248 +216 199019 020 017 000 00
183430 1445N 06430W 9772 00268 0074 +250 +216 197020 021 017 000 00
183500 1445N 06429W 9771 00269 0074 +250 +216 197019 020 019 000 00
183530 1445N 06427W 9770 00271 0075 +250 +217 197019 019 018 000 00
$$
;

[chris_fit]

I cant believe how weak the circulation is. Recon is reporting ~10mph winds everywhere south of the center, wow!

[Bocadude85]

Seems like the models are coming to a solution that takes Emily over the Bahamas and then just east of Florida.. but it may be a very close call.

close enough to put a good scare into all the fossils living in boca

LOL hey we arent all fossils.. but yea going to be close... at the very least a cloudy breezy day.

[Blown Away]

18Z TVCN way east of Florida now, goes over DR.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Airboy]

Yeah, the winds from recon suggest that the center is more SW than the last position they had in the last vortex.

I don't think that's accurate.... Compare the VDM from last mission to the one from this one... WWNW

I meant that the center posion from the VDM from this mission looks a bit "wrong", the winds SW of it suggest the center is actually a bit more SW of the VDM position.

[KWT]

There is a weak broad circulation to the south-west of the center we got a VDM from but given this system has already relocated once, I can't be sure its not about to pull that trick for a 2nd time today.

[chris_fit]

Yeah, the winds from recon suggest that the center is more SW than the last position they had in the last vortex.

I don't think that's accurate.... Compare the VDM from last mission to the one from this one... WWNW

I meant that the center posion from the VDM from this mission looks a bit "wrong", the winds SW of it suggest the center is actually a bit more SW of the VDM position.

Ohhhh I get it, I see what you are saying. Interesting...

[Javlin]

You can't ignore how the CDO is in obvious directly-connected rotation with the surface feature.


I think we are seeing "Caribbean death zone" effects.

Shsssh.....can't talk about the graveyard

[Blown Away]

Many of the models turn Emily sharply into DR instead of Haiti.

[Bocadude85]

18Z TVCN way east of Florida now, goes over DR.

Map?

[gatorcane]

18Z TVCN way east of Florida now, goes over DR.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.

Yeah I see that and that has been my thinking on this system from the beginning which was that if it developed it would hit the weakness. This weakness was shown on the models days ago. It's a big front for this time of year but it's not that uncommon.

I am even wondering if the Central Bahamas will see any impacts here as my thinking is that it will go east of them also, maybe by about 50-75 miles or so. NHC has no choice but to move the track right again....away from Florida, unless the ECMWF does something bizarre.

The way Emily is looking models can only recurve her into that weakness. They don't have much of a choice unless hispaniola really weakens her in which case I could use some rain here in South Florida

[HURAKAN]

[underthwx]

Hopefully emily spares all in its path

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021846
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 14 20110802
183600 1446N 06425W 9770 00272 0076 +250 +217 195018 019 019 000 00
183630 1446N 06424W 9770 00272 0076 +250 +217 194018 018 019 000 00
183700 1446N 06422W 9769 00273 0076 +250 +217 192018 019 020 001 00
183730 1446N 06421W 9771 00271 0077 +250 +218 195019 019 019 000 00
183800 1446N 06419W 9771 00272 0077 +250 +218 195018 019 017 000 00
183830 1446N 06417W 9769 00274 0078 +250 +218 195018 018 017 000 00
183900 1446N 06416W 9772 00272 0078 +250 +219 191017 017 018 000 00
183930 1446N 06414W 9770 00274 0078 +250 +219 189017 018 018 000 00
184000 1446N 06412W 9771 00273 0078 +250 +219 188019 019 019 001 00
184030 1446N 06411W 9772 00273 0079 +250 +219 185019 020 020 000 00
184100 1446N 06409W 9770 00274 0079 +250 +219 185018 019 020 001 00
184130 1446N 06408W 9772 00273 0079 +250 +219 180019 020 022 001 00
184200 1446N 06406W 9773 00272 0079 +250 +219 174020 021 /// /// 03
184230 1447N 06406W 9769 00276 0079 +247 +220 163020 021 /// /// 03
184300 1449N 06407W 9780 00265 0079 +250 +221 164018 019 024 005 00
184330 1450N 06408W 9767 00277 0079 +246 +221 169017 018 027 010 03
184400 1451N 06409W 9766 00277 0079 +247 +221 171016 016 022 004 00
184430 1452N 06411W 9772 00272 0078 +246 +219 171016 017 023 004 00
184500 1453N 06412W 9768 00276 0078 +247 +218 169016 017 024 002 00
184530 1455N 06413W 9769 00275 0079 +245 +217 174016 016 023 006 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

18Z TVCN way east of Florida now, goes over DR.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.

Yeah I see that and that has been my thinking on this system from the beginning which was that if it developed it would hit the weakness. This weakness was shown on the models days ago. It's a big front for this time of year but it's not that uncommon.

I am even wondering if the Central Bahamas will see any impacts here as my thinking is that it will go east of them also, maybe by about 50-75 miles or so.

The way Emily is looking models can only recurve her into that weakness. They don't have much of a choice unless hispaniola really weakens her in which case I could use some rain here in South Florida

But it doesn't appear Emily is becoming that deep developed system anytime soon?

[KWT]

18Z TVCN way east of Florida now, goes over DR.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Yes interesting...

All well and good for that to go east but given the system is still moving 280-285 and indeed possibly southwards starting another relocation process I'm not sure why I'd put all that much faith in the models trending eastwards, at least in the short term...

In the longer term I suppose just about anything could happen still...

[Hylian Auree]

Even after its formation, this system is still playing tricks on us. I can't even discern in what direction it's heading anymore

[KWT]

Many of the models turn Emily sharply into DR instead of Haiti.

Yep they are, but many of these models are moving 285-290 already...which isn't the case at the moment...

models are shifting eastwards again though, so will need to watch to see if the motion actually decides to shift up a little.

[Bocadude85]

Well the Euro seems to be in line with the current NHC track so I dont know...