ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

The 18Z BAM suite really shifted west. I understand that they aren't as near as good as the dynamic models, but lets look for a trend.

[gatorcane]

yeah hwrf.. farther west.. almost on the coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Fortunatley the HWRF is an outlier showing it that far west and that strong.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.Pretty good consensus.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Hurricaneman]

I would watch this if indeed it does relocate southwest where recon found what looked like another area of lower pressure

[SunnyThoughts]

I can't remember ever looking at a sat pic, and thinking how good it looks at first glance, when in actuality its fairly weak and disorganized.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021856
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 15 20110802
184600 1456N 06414W 9770 00273 0078 +248 +216 174015 016 024 004 00
184630 1457N 06415W 9769 00273 0077 +245 +215 168016 017 026 005 00
184700 1458N 06416W 9772 00270 0077 +245 +215 164016 017 028 007 00
184730 1459N 06418W 9774 00267 0076 +243 +214 164015 017 026 007 00
184800 1501N 06419W 9771 00269 0075 +243 +213 161016 016 026 007 00
184830 1502N 06420W 9774 00265 0074 +242 +212 161017 019 025 006 00
184900 1503N 06421W 9769 00270 0073 +245 +210 163019 020 024 005 00
184930 1504N 06422W 9770 00267 0073 +243 +209 161018 018 024 005 00
185000 1505N 06424W 9772 00266 0072 +241 +209 159018 018 023 005 00
185030 1507N 06425W 9772 00266 0072 +241 +209 163018 018 024 006 00
185100 1508N 06426W 9769 00268 0072 +240 +208 164018 019 026 006 00
185130 1509N 06427W 9772 00265 0072 +238 +208 156017 018 025 006 00
185200 1510N 06429W 9769 00267 0071 +236 +207 154018 018 025 004 00
185230 1512N 06430W 9770 00266 0071 +235 +206 159018 019 024 005 00
185300 1513N 06431W 9771 00264 0071 +235 +205 159019 019 026 005 00
185330 1514N 06432W 9772 00263 0071 +235 +203 158019 020 024 006 00
185400 1515N 06433W 9772 00264 0070 +235 +202 160020 020 027 006 00
185430 1516N 06435W 9770 00264 0070 +225 +202 160020 021 038 022 03
185500 1518N 06436W 9768 00266 0071 +215 +200 153018 020 041 021 03
185530 1519N 06437W 9773 00259 0070 +211 +196 154021 021 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

yeah hwrf.. farther west.. almost on the coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Fortunatley the HWRF is an outlier showing it that far west and that strong.

Euro is only about 75-100 miles off the coast Gatorcane

[gatorcane]

When I loop this image, it seems Emily's west movement is coming to a screeching halt, as ridging is starting to really collapse north of the system.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[fci]

18z Tropical Models.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

Back to pretty much where everyone said she would go 2-3 days ago.
Funny thing....
Unless something unusual happens, default to a recurve.

[mvtrucking]

If it relocates there, the track will definately have to be shifted west in the 24hr forecast

I'm am just glad this thing will not end up in the Gulf.

[KWT]

Circulation looks quite good bar an eddy on the SW side, for now the northern center looks to be the dominant one, should be interesting to see where its heading.

Last recon fixes was about 290 degree, see no reason why that would be any different this time round...

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS basded models are back to where they are before...

Worth noting most of the models that go further east are the GFS based models, UKMO/ECM/CMC all are a bit further west, not massivly but through the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Look at this WV loop at the front digging down into the Atlantic off the SE Coast of the U.S....looks more like early or mid October out there with this deep trough

BTW, haven't seen a front this strong in many weeks. Perfect timing again for the SE CONUS maybe....assuming the models do not shift back to the west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

hehe.. and the bams are all back west side of state again.. lol

models still just dont have a clue... more waiting..

[CronkPSU]

When I loop this image, it seems Emily's west movement is coming to a screeching halt, as ridging is starting to really collapse north of the system.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

i am not seeing what you are seeing...

[SouthDadeFish]

Circulation looks quite good bar an eddy on the SW side, for now the northern center looks to be the dominant one, should be interesting to see where its heading.

Last recon fixes was about 290 degree, see no reason why that would be any different this time round...

I disagree. The wind shifts aren't matching up with what an established circulation would look like. A strong lack of west winds throughout the circulation.

[Texas Snowman]

If it relocates there, the track will definately have to be shifted west in the 24hr forecast

I'm am just glad this thing will not end up in the Gulf.

Still early in this game. With all due respect, personally, I don't think there's any way we can say that yet with any real certainty.

[Bocadude85]

hehe.. and the bams are all back west side of state again.. lol

models still just dont have a clue... more waiting..

Interesting.. and the bams are ran off the GFS correct?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021906
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 16 20110802
185600 1520N 06438W 9772 00260 0070 +203 +192 153022 023 /// /// 03
185630 1520N 06438W 9772 00260 0069 +206 +188 156023 024 /// /// 03
185700 1523N 06441W 9769 00264 0070 +216 +184 161020 021 /// /// 03
185730 1524N 06442W 9769 00263 0069 +221 +182 164020 021 /// /// 03
185800 1525N 06443W 9772 00260 0068 +224 +182 168021 022 /// /// 03
185830 1526N 06444W 9770 00261 0067 +223 +182 170022 022 /// /// 03
185900 1528N 06446W 9771 00260 0066 +230 +182 173022 023 /// /// 03
185930 1529N 06447W 9772 00259 0065 +232 +182 175021 022 /// /// 03
190000 1530N 06448W 9770 00259 0064 +235 +183 174021 022 /// /// 03
190030 1531N 06449W 9771 00259 0065 +230 +184 178020 021 026 007 00
190100 1532N 06450W 9772 00258 0064 +228 +186 184020 021 028 007 00
190130 1534N 06452W 9770 00258 0064 +226 +186 185019 020 030 010 00
190200 1535N 06453W 9770 00258 0065 +213 +187 190018 018 035 018 03
190230 1536N 06454W 9768 00258 0064 +204 +186 189017 017 /// /// 03
190300 1537N 06455W 9769 00255 0060 +214 +184 187020 021 /// /// 03
190330 1538N 06456W 9773 00251 0059 +215 +182 189020 021 /// /// 03
190400 1539N 06458W 9774 00251 0060 +216 +181 189018 019 /// /// 03
190430 1541N 06459W 9769 00256 0059 +217 +182 201016 018 /// /// 03
190500 1542N 06500W 9769 00255 0058 +220 +182 205013 015 /// /// 03
190530 1543N 06501W 9770 00253 0057 +230 +182 190012 012 /// /// 03
$$
;