ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

intersting enough the deep bam turns hard left.... dont they typically go with flow of GFS ? still clearly models are having a hard time... remember just one run ago the gfs and euro were almost western carrib with a weak system,,,,.. no consensus yet.. and wont be till after hispanola

[Nimbus]

I'm watching that little hot tower that recon just flew by, looks like it may be an emerging center.

The convection burst is near 15.5 N 64.5 W which is north of the NHC points but there probably is some shear from the south..

I agree with Gatorcane about the digging front seen in the WV imagery it does look more like a late season front. The question is will it persist with Emily likely to be south of 20N? If Emily misses she may get steered back west by the rebuilding ridge.

[HURAKAN]

[N2Storms]

[quote="Texas Snowman"][quote="mvtrucking"][quote="Hurricaneman"]If it relocates there, the track will definately have to be shifted west in the 24hr forecast[/quote]

I'm am just glad this thing will not end up in the Gulf.[/quote][/quote][quote]

Still early in this game. With all due respect, personally, I don't think there's any way we can say that yet with any real certainty.[/quote]


Thats true but right now, my confidence level is pretty high that I'm not going to have to cancel any of my weekend plans and that's a good thing...

[AdamFirst]

Still early in this game. With all due respect, personally, I don't think there's any way we can say that yet with any real certainty.

Florida gulf coast, at the most.

The cockroach ridge has put a giant "NO ENTRY" sign on the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

[wxman57]

The 18Z BAM suite really shifted west. I understand that they aren't as near as good as the dynamic models, but lets look for a trend.

I do see a big trend - all the dynamic models shifted well to the east of Florida at 18Z. That includes Euro and Canadian. Trend is for less of a threat to Florida, and for a weaker storm, but there remains lots of uncertainty because Emily just can't seem to get its act together.

[SouthDadeFish]

The 18Z BAM suite really shifted west. I understand that they aren't as near as good as the dynamic models, but lets look for a trend.

I do see a big trend - all the dynamic models shifted well to the east of Florida at 18Z. That includes Euro and Canadian. Trend is for less of a threat to Florida, and for a weaker storm, but there remains lots of uncertainty because Emily just can't seem to get its act together.

I said that because the BAM suite did the best job at showing a longer westward motion initially, which is more in line with the NHC track. With the current state of Emily's disrupted inner core, I am thinking a more westward track on the short term is probably more likely at this time. Not saying that it will hit Florida after that though. Just my opinion.

[psyclone]

with this storm this much of a mess now I can't help but wonder if it would even survive an encounter with mountainous terrain. even if it doesn't since we're in august it won't be long before something else pops.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021916
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 17 20110802
190600 1544N 06502W 9773 00250 0057 +230 +184 171010 011 /// /// 03
190630 1543N 06504W 9772 00252 0058 +227 +188 175010 012 /// /// 03
190700 1543N 06505W 9769 00254 0058 +226 +190 171010 012 /// /// 03
190730 1542N 06507W 9769 00253 0058 +224 +192 149011 012 /// /// 03
190800 1542N 06509W 9776 00248 0058 +221 +193 127008 009 /// /// 03
190830 1541N 06510W 9774 00248 0058 +220 +193 168005 006 /// /// 03
190900 1540N 06510W 9762 00262 0059 +224 +192 192010 013 /// /// 03
190930 1539N 06512W 9777 00245 0058 +211 +191 185010 013 /// /// 03
191000 1539N 06513W 9764 00259 0059 +209 +190 166006 009 /// /// 03
191030 1539N 06515W 9786 00238 0058 +211 +188 174007 009 /// /// 03
191100 1540N 06515W 9758 00263 0058 +211 +187 125010 011 /// /// 03
191130 1542N 06516W 9770 00253 0058 +220 +186 118010 010 /// /// 03
191200 1544N 06515W 9776 00247 0057 +224 +186 105009 009 /// /// 03
191230 1545N 06515W 9766 00257 0056 +232 +186 099008 009 /// /// 03
191300 1547N 06515W 9764 00256 0055 +232 +187 088007 008 /// /// 03
191330 1548N 06515W 9774 00246 0053 +234 +190 083006 006 /// /// 03
191400 1550N 06515W 9775 00243 0051 +236 +194 089006 006 /// /// 03
191430 1551N 06515W 9769 00248 0050 +232 +198 095005 006 /// /// 03
191500 1553N 06515W 9771 00245 0048 +233 +201 081007 008 /// /// 03
191530 1554N 06515W 9774 00241 0047 +235 +204 079009 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[hurricaneCW]

Those recurves may not even matter because Emily might be gone after Hispaniola anyway.

[wxman57]

Here are the 18Z dynamic model runs. I left the NHC's OFCI track on there. It's just an extension of their 15Z track (for now). Mountains of the DR could be more of a factor with any right shift in the track.

[KWT]

Looks like to me that recon is getting a better center punch this time, pressure dropping into 1004s and a bit Nw of previous fix, motion probably still close to 290.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021926
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 18 20110802
191600 1556N 06515W 9764 00249 0046 +235 +206 084011 012 /// /// 03
191630 1558N 06515W 9773 00240 0045 +235 +208 081013 014 /// /// 03
191700 1559N 06515W 9774 00239 0044 +239 +210 082013 014 /// /// 03
191730 1601N 06515W 9768 00245 0044 +233 +212 083015 016 /// /// 03
191800 1602N 06515W 9774 00239 0044 +231 +213 079015 016 /// /// 03
191830 1604N 06515W 9771 00242 0044 +231 +213 073019 021 /// /// 03
191900 1605N 06515W 9766 00246 0045 +230 +214 078023 025 /// /// 03
191930 1607N 06515W 9772 00241 0045 +230 +213 080027 028 /// /// 03
192000 1608N 06515W 9766 00249 0047 +227 +213 081030 031 /// /// 03
192030 1610N 06515W 9767 00249 0048 +227 +213 086035 036 032 001 03
192100 1611N 06515W 9771 00245 0050 +225 +212 086039 041 034 000 00
192130 1613N 06515W 9775 00243 0053 +223 +212 087040 041 034 000 03
192200 1614N 06515W 9767 00252 0053 +224 +210 089040 041 034 001 03
192230 1615N 06515W 9776 00244 0054 +225 +209 090040 041 032 002 00
192300 1617N 06515W 9777 00247 0056 +225 +208 091041 042 034 000 03
192330 1619N 06515W 9768 00255 0058 +227 +208 091040 042 032 000 03
192400 1620N 06515W 9770 00255 0058 +225 +208 091040 044 031 002 03
192430 1622N 06515W 9767 00259 0060 +222 +208 090041 042 032 001 03
192500 1623N 06515W 9772 00253 0060 +225 +208 090042 044 034 005 03
192530 1625N 06514W 9770 00256 0061 +227 +208 091044 045 034 000 03
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Wind shift isn't making any sense with the lowering pressure. Either they missed the center or this thing is a mess.

[Aric Dunn]

still 14kt winds there ... cant find the center maybe..

[SouthDadeFish]

How does recon find E winds as they head North towards lowering pressure? How does that make sense? Does this have a closed circulation anymore?

[x-y-no]

Wind shift isn't making any sense with the lowering pressure. Either they missed the center or this thing is a mess.

I think the bolded part sums it up.

[SouthDadeFish]

But if it is such a mess then why does the pressure continue to drop? I'm so confused...

[HURAKAN]

[MGC]

Emily looks like a train wreck...where the west wind? Very light at the most....hardly indicative of a TC. Never should have been upgraded yesterday....Emily does look good on the visible loop though with good MCL. Perhaps Emily is in the process or reforming a real surface circulation......MGC