ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021936
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 19 20110802
192600 1626N 06514W 9772 00256 0062 +230 +208 094045 047 036 002 03
192630 1627N 06514W 9772 00258 0062 +232 +208 096046 048 035 003 03
192700 1629N 06514W 9773 00255 0063 +234 +209 097046 048 035 002 03
192730 1631N 06514W 9767 00260 0063 +235 +210 098044 046 033 000 03
192800 1632N 06514W 9773 00257 0065 +234 +211 098043 044 031 001 03
192830 1634N 06514W 9766 00264 0065 +233 +212 100044 045 032 002 00
192900 1635N 06514W 9772 00260 0066 +234 +213 100041 043 032 001 03
192930 1637N 06514W 9765 00268 0067 +234 +213 099039 040 031 003 03
193000 1638N 06514W 9766 00266 0068 +235 +214 100039 039 032 000 03
193030 1640N 06514W 9780 00254 0068 +233 +215 099041 044 031 000 03
193100 1641N 06514W 9763 00271 0069 +230 +214 101041 043 033 000 03
193130 1643N 06514W 9769 00265 0069 +235 +213 102038 039 030 000 00
193200 1645N 06514W 9772 00261 0069 +239 +212 103041 042 028 000 03
193230 1646N 06514W 9774 00260 0069 +240 +212 103043 043 029 002 00
193300 1648N 06514W 9770 00265 0070 +240 +213 104043 044 029 002 00
193330 1649N 06514W 9768 00267 0070 +241 +214 104046 048 030 001 03
193400 1651N 06514W 9773 00264 0071 +241 +215 105045 046 033 000 03
193430 1653N 06514W 9765 00273 0073 +243 +216 102039 043 028 002 03
193500 1654N 06515W 9769 00268 0071 +246 +218 093039 041 /// /// 03
193530 1653N 06516W 9781 00257 0071 +247 +220 089035 036 030 002 03
$$
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[SunnyThoughts]

Emily looks like a train wreck...where the west wind? Very light at the most....hardly indicative of a TC. Never should have been upgraded yesterday....Emily does look good on the visible loop though with good MCL. Perhaps Emily is in the process or reforming a real surface circulation......MGC

I agree. Like I said earlier, never seen a storm look so good on visible loop, and be so weak and disorganized.

[AdamFirst]

Perhaps Emily is in the process or reforming a real surface circulation......MGC

We've been waiting for that to happen for three days now.

[SouthDadeFish]

This continues to be the strangest storm I've ever seen.

[Blown Away]

Deep BAM GOM bound, funny!

[Aric Dunn]

looking at sat .. there seems to be boundary of sorts extending west from the center... its should be rotating but is basically just staying that position and shifting west with the storm.. wonder if its inhibiting the inflow in the quad..

[Cainer]

Either Emily's poor excuse of a circulation has opened up, or recon has missed it to the east. I'm thinking it might be the former. Recon's found no straight west winds at all, only SSW winds to the south of the "circulation". Looks more like a strong wave with a pronounced mid-level spin to me, but I'll wait till recon makes another pass through before saying anything else

[Aric Dunn]

not too funny.. if you recall over the last few days they have been the first to show any shifts... for instance the present east shift.. they were the first to start doing that hard right turn... now they backed off and went to what they were 18 hours ago..

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021946
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 20 20110802
193600 1652N 06518W 9771 00266 0071 +248 +223 091034 036 030 001 00
193630 1652N 06520W 9769 00265 0071 +245 +224 088034 035 028 001 00
193700 1651N 06522W 9772 00266 0070 +245 +225 088032 033 030 002 03
193730 1650N 06523W 9770 00265 0070 +248 +226 090035 037 030 002 03
193800 1649N 06525W 9769 00267 0069 +249 +226 090037 038 033 001 03
193830 1649N 06527W 9765 00271 0069 +247 +226 090036 037 032 001 03
193900 1648N 06528W 9782 00253 0068 +246 +227 086036 038 033 003 03
193930 1647N 06530W 9770 00264 0068 +247 +227 082034 036 032 002 00
194000 1647N 06532W 9774 00260 0068 +248 +226 082033 034 030 000 00
194030 1646N 06534W 9770 00265 0069 +247 +226 084032 032 030 000 03
194100 1645N 06535W 9769 00266 0069 +245 +226 080032 034 029 001 00
194130 1644N 06537W 9773 00262 0069 +245 +226 084031 033 029 001 03
194200 1644N 06537W 9773 00262 0069 +245 +226 085029 030 027 001 00
194230 1643N 06540W 9772 00264 0069 +244 +226 083030 031 027 000 03
194300 1642N 06542W 9773 00262 0069 +243 +226 081033 034 026 000 03
194330 1642N 06544W 9769 00266 0069 +243 +225 080035 036 030 001 03
194400 1642N 06546W 9766 00269 0069 +242 +224 087032 034 030 002 00
194430 1642N 06548W 9769 00267 0069 +246 +222 082034 035 027 002 03
194500 1643N 06549W 9768 00269 0069 +247 +221 087036 036 /// /// 03
194530 1644N 06549W 9556 00455 0068 +232 +221 087036 037 /// /// 03
$$
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[HurricaneWarning92]

Maybe they are picking up on a ridge building back in strong enough that keep it on a wnw motion.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 021948
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 02/19:10:10Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
065 deg 13 min W
C. NA
D. 27 kt
E. 121 deg 45 nm
F. 159 deg 24 kt
G. 117 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 24 C / 305 m
J. 24 C / 300 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0605A EMILY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 17:35:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 360 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 19:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 19:10:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°39'N 65°13'W (15.65N 65.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 199 miles (320 km) to the SSE (164°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the ESE (121°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 159° at 24kts (From the SSE at ~ 27.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 305m (1,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 300m (984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:35:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center

[nicole]

Deep BAM GOM bound, funny!

Is the GOM still possible??

[Blown Away]

not too funny.. if you recall over the last few days they have been the first to show any shifts... for instance the present east shift.. they were the first to start doing that hard right turn... now they backed off and went to what they were 18 hours ago..

Bams, CMC, Ukmet still show Florida/EGOM, so it's not in stone this hard recurve. IMO, GFS is to strong with the trough.

[SouthDadeFish]

Is recon leaving already?? The last ob had them climbing.

[KWT]

The GFS probably is too keen on the trough, thats fairly normal for the model from what I've noticed, but still could be the start of a new trend of heading back east.

[wxman57]

But if it is such a mess then why does the pressure continue to drop? I'm so confused...

Emily is so disorganized that recon missed the center on that first drop. Second drop was closer to the center, about half a degree farther west. Thus the lower pressure in the last vortex.

The plane did find plenty of west winds down around 15.1N and 65.5W.

[lester]

They were able to get a VDM so I guess it still has a circulation..

- לסטר

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021956
AF309 0605A EMILY HDOB 21 20110802
194600 1646N 06549W 9191 00809 0077 +212 //// 090037 038 /// /// 05
194630 1647N 06549W 8801 01184 0082 +195 //// 089037 038 /// /// 05
194700 1649N 06548W 8497 01487 //// +176 //// 089034 035 027 001 05
194730 1650N 06548W 8412 01577 //// +169 //// 093034 034 028 000 01
194800 1652N 06547W 8410 01584 //// +168 //// 095034 034 029 002 01
194830 1653N 06546W 8382 01611 0081 +172 //// 093033 034 029 001 01
194900 1655N 06545W 8112 01892 //// +161 //// 093031 033 029 001 05
194930 1656N 06543W 7770 02259 //// +143 //// 093027 028 031 000 05
195000 1657N 06542W 7427 02637 //// +118 //// 086022 024 027 003 05
195030 1658N 06541W 7193 02905 //// +105 //// 079021 022 029 000 05
195100 1659N 06539W 6887 03267 //// +088 //// 074024 025 026 001 05
195130 1700N 06538W 6810 03369 //// +087 //// 087028 030 029 001 05
195200 1702N 06537W 6710 03491 //// +082 //// 093030 030 030 001 01
195230 1703N 06535W 6695 03511 //// +081 //// 092029 030 029 001 01
195300 1704N 06534W 6701 03505 //// +083 //// 094030 031 029 000 01
195330 1706N 06532W 6668 03543 //// +083 //// 092031 031 030 000 01
195400 1707N 06530W 6681 03532 //// +082 //// 093031 032 031 001 01
195430 1708N 06529W 6676 03541 //// +080 //// 095030 030 031 001 05
195500 1710N 06527W 6676 03540 //// +081 //// 091031 031 030 000 05
195530 1711N 06526W 6675 03540 //// +076 //// 092033 034 031 000 05
$$
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