ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Yeah a VDM has come through, looks like its is a total train wreck in the lower levels...

Probably won't make much of a difference to it if Hispaniola takes it out because its in such a poor state anyway, its all just MLC it seems with a weak surface reflection.

[SouthDadeFish]

I wish recon could have investigated the SW a little more. Regardless, she really seems like a mess. Really shocking comparing recon's findings to satellite appearance.

[HURAKAN]

[AdamFirst]

What a disaster of a storm. This is worse than Don ever was.

[bamajammer4eva]

From Joe Bastardi Twitter:

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi

Emily starting to intensify. pressure is falling in storm.. awaiting next recon

21 minutes ago

[HURAKAN]

Mission over!! Thanks to Dave for your help!!

[Aric Dunn]

last two fixes show 265 or so motion ..

[Aric Dunn]

yeah they seem to be leaving.. wonder if something went wrong ...

[Ivanhater]

With Recon having a tough time pinning down and Center and land possibly disrupting a center later, that leads to multiple center relocation likely in the cards. Kind of hard to nail down a track if you ask me.

[cycloneye]

That was a quick mission. Did something happened that they returned to not make another pass before the 5 PM advisory?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The latest models that WXMan just posted up don't appear like they are anywhere near the correct path in the short term. They all take Emily nearly directly NW. She has been, and is still, moving west. -even with jogs possibly south of west now and then over the last cople of days. Her "slowdown" actually seemed ot allow that little ridge to build over her more today to allow for furthr westward motion.

I still think the model suites will come back west. If I gotta eat crow in a few days, so be it. I'm not a vegetarian.

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[wxman57]

last two fixes show 265 or so motion ..

You can't count that first fix as the plane clearly missed the center.

[Aric Dunn]

NAm back to more ridging ... this run.. not as much as last night but more than 12z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif

[artist]

have a question for the knowledgable here, looking at the satellite pictures it appears to me that there is circulation except on the western side there is a major updraft going on with that side of the circulation not seen elsewhere in it. Does anyone else see that or know what I am talking about?
here is a sample pic of what I think I see on the western side -

[StormClouds63]

In the event Emily does not attain hurricane status, that would make 5/5 named systems to start the season ... all w/o reaching hurricane strength. Does anyone know if that has happened before to start an Atlantic tropical season? Just wondering.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 022007
97779 19560 30172 65400 33800 09033 07//2 /3150
RMK AF309 0605A EMILY OB 07
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT

Got it Hurakan! Rebooted my system....all ok now. Back later on.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's funny but last night I was saying, "why are the models keeping this storm so weak?"
or "why are they dissipating it?" Based upon today's behaviour of Emily, now I understand....
Now I have zero confidence that Emily will ever get going.

[Aric Dunn]

last two fixes show 265 or so motion ..

You can't count that first fix as the plane clearly missed the center.

but its extrapolated.. VDM came out for it.

[SeminoleWind]

im starting to think that none of the models will be much help until we see what if anything is left after it crosses Hispaniola.

[SunnyThoughts]

im starting to think that none of the models will be much help until we see what if anything is left after it crosses Hispaniola.

Are we even sure its going to cross Hispaniola?