Area near 12N 30W

[cycloneye]

1008mb low Luis...sound familiar? Invest looks likely soon...Choo Choo!!

Yes,looks like invest candidate soon. The train is leaving the station.

[KWT]

Interesting, a reasonable SAL outbreak with it though which will keep it in check. I would suspect it needs watching down the line but not for now...

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 11N30W TO
19N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB
CENTERED AT 11N30W ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
ABOUT 388 NM. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION LIES BEHIND THE WAVE
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 11N30W TO
19N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB
CENTERED AT 11N30W ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
ABOUT 388 NM. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION LIES BEHIND THE WAVE
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

already no time out call and we're only at beginning of August. Cycloneye, do you think that this one as conducive conditions even better than it predecessor Emily in this area?

[Gustywind]

Maybe interresting %... for the area near 30W. Let's wait and see.

[sky1989]

This definately is the next one to watch. Do any of the models develop it at the moment? I know some did in previous runs.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Good looking waves coming offshore the next 2 days... specially the one in the right...

[FireRat]

I don't see why we wouldn't have a continued stream of storms rolling of the African coast en route to the Islands and trying a shot at the U.S. two weeks from now. Emily may very well be the opening act.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
19N32W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N34W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE LOW FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 35W-38W.


$$
PAW

[Gustywind]

Dr. Rick Knabb, Hurricane Expert, The Weather Channel

Aug 2, 2011 11:06 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Tropics Watch: Daily map analysis

ATLANTIC BASIN

Another tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, producing a broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Models do not yet forecast much development as it moves westward over the tropical eastern and central Atlantic this week.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
19N31W ALONG 16N33W TO 12N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
WELL DEFINED THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS. HOWEVER...IT IS ILL DEFINED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE. THE NEAR STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW LONGER ATTACHED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND IS CENTERED NEAR 11N32W.NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

$$
PAW

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not going to look at storms over Africa at the moment. As we've recently seen, it doesn't matter what the storm looks like over Africa, it could look like a monster and fizzle. What matters is what it looks like several days after coming off of Africa. So don't let those African waves fool you like they've fooled me.

[Gustywind]

Tropical activity between Africa and the Lesser Antilles...

[FireRat]

Just a bold statement/prediction:

Watch the next wave coming off Africa, I believe August 9th-10th are dangerous times for something hurricane-related and the wave coming off right now would be in the vicinity of the Leewards then, if it develops and is not picked up by any trough. Of course its an 8-ball deal, but not too early to mention. If something pops up, I'd watch it with more interest than anything so far this season.

That's one good looking wave, but as ConvergenceZone stated, we shouldn't let these fool us but rather wait and see how it looks a few days further out as it travels the Atlantic. Bottom line, something to keep an eye on for the longer run IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, that one wave that came off the coast a couple of days ago(that we thought might be an invest today) is all but gone. Zero convection, looks like the SAL had it for dinner last night.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

......TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N31W 11N33W.
THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W.


$$
MT

[jonj2040]

so far this wave has less SAL to deal with than its recent predecessor

today


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

July 31st


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 040600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
16N34W TO 9N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS BUT REMAINS RATHER ILL DEFINED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.


$$
PAW

[dixiebreeze]

Maybe something else to watch soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[Hurricaneman]

Maybe something else to watch soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

This is the one the Canadian and Gfs are developing, depends on what this does when it hits the water and factor number 2, how much SAL will this have to deal with