ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[JPmia]

The GFDL run goes directly over Port Au Prince, Haiti.. that is not good for the earthquake relief and all the tent cities in that area housing thousands of people... and then look how close it gets to E FL coast.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

[blp]

Aric, you called it. We need to keep an eye on the bam's models because the other models tend to respond in there direction with this storm. It could just be because it comes out sooner than than the globals and it sees the trend first.

[Aric Dunn]

The GFDL run goes directly over Port Au Prince, Haiti.. that is not good for the earthquake relief and all the tent cities in that area housing thousands of people... and then look how close it gets to E FL coast.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

notice the ridging that builds in twice causing it to wobble more westerly .... weird the ridging was there at the 12z as well but it did not respond .. wonder why it responded now..

[Vortex]

hwrf

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

landfall actually vero beach

Thanks aric, noticed it was abit further south....interesting days ahead.

[ronjon]

Here's the full animated run of the 18z HWRF. Eyewall rakes FL east coast from Vero Beach to St Augustine. Yikes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011080218-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Bocadude85]

start at about image 66 and see what happens every time the bam models shift..
lol

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=05

How come the HWRF isnt updated on that map?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you called it. We need to keep an eye on the bam's models because the other models tend to respond in there direction with this storm. It could just be because it comes out sooner than than the globals and it sees the trend first.

well not really in their direction... the run basically of the gfs... but its just something weird thing I started noticing with this system... and it just happened again..

[KWT]

GFDL seems to have a good grip on the intial motion, quite big that the two GFS based hurricane models both shifted west in quite a big way...

So much for it being game over recurve bound eh!

[Aric Dunn]

start at about image 66 and see what happens every time the bam models shift..
lol

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=05

How come the HWRF isnt updated on that map?

sometimes takes awhile..

[wxsouth]

Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

Certainly looks that way. We may see a weak Category 1 before a landfall on Hispaniola.

Possible. Conditions aren't that bad in the central Carribean. A little dry air, not enough shear to write home about. Possible. But pressure still pretty high. Have to start seeing some real pressure falls I think.

The center is to the west of all that red in the image. The center remains on the western edge of the convection...so no eyewall is forming. Probably just gradual deepening.

[Jevo]

Looks like the 18Z GFDL and HWRF decided to make a trip back to the West.. The HWRF has a pretty tightly packed system taking a trip up the spine of FL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ronjon]

Funny that the 18z GFS run didn't shift west - what's up with that? usually GFS and GFDL follow one another.

[KWT]

Yeah I don't think thats an eyewall either, does look like it starting to deepen abit more as well.

[wzrgirl1]

Do you feel the NHC will shift the cone to the west in response to these model changes or do you think they will stay on the original track and wait to see if the models change once again?

[sweetpea]

With a storm like this, I get nervous for the people who are not as vigilant or as knowledgeable as us because a storm like this can change in an instant and catch many people by surprise, and if you are not keeping up with the advisories and/or models that you can really get caught off guard.

I totally agree with you, my husband is a great example of that. I love this site, lurk ALOT and learn. I have been watching this for days. I told him about Emily tonite, and he was like "I will worry about it when it is a day away, those storms always change at the last minute." So this is why I love this site, I will monitor it and decide what we will have to do to prepare. I am on the east coast about 30 miles north of Daytona Beach.

Thanks to all the people, pro mets on here that are patient and take the time to explain how things work and why. I love this site!

[Aric Dunn]

actually start back at image 47... the bam models shift east the models follow... that happens image 50 .. 53... then 62 and now.. basically every main package..

[JPmia]

The GFDL run goes directly over Port Au Prince, Haiti.. that is not good for the earthquake relief and all the tent cities in that area housing thousands of people... and then look how close it gets to E FL coast.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

notice the ridging that builds in twice causing it to wobble more westerly .... weird the ridging was there at the 12z as well but it did not respond .. wonder why it responded now..

i was wondering the same thing.. what about these runs of the GFDL and HWRF is causing her to go more westerly.. you answered part of it.. stronger, building ridge... but what else?

[stormreader]

Looks like what may be happening is that the trough at its furthest south extent S Fl has bottomed out and flattened just a tad. The flow around the continental High coming down strongly from N to S has perhaps confused the situation. The storm will of course take the trough's path out to sea. But it might feel some hesitation (thus a slightly further west move before doing this) as it senses the N-S flow around the continental high temporarily before finally being kicked to the right. Perhaps this is what models are picking up on. Could be a very delicate situation and it is possible that you might see more model divergence than we normally expect close to possible landfall. Here's the latest WV Loop showing the trough and the flow around the continental high. Maybe I'm wrong. Welcome any suggestions.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

[NDG]

Yes I do see a small opportunity for a shift a little closer to Florida, but the sub-Atlantic ridge should be far enough to the east that it leaves a huge door open. These tropical models have been switching back and forth like crazy.

GFS showing a large opening between the two ridges with plenty of space to move far enough from Florida.

Kory, you got to remember how far right the GFS was with Don, the same thing could be happening here.
Don't put all your eggs with the GFS.
Meanwhile the euro has been showing a little stronger ridge and a little farther west, if it is right that would put Emily's passage a bit closer to FL, too close for comfort.
UKMET shows even a stronger ridging, but UKMET lately has been overdoing the strength of ridges in past its 4-5 day range forecast.

[SunnyThoughts]

So is that bright red part of the mid level circulation? Its curved like its rotating... Is it possible that the mid level circulation could possibly getting stronger and dropping down to the surface?