ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[stormhunter7]

When is the next G-IV flight? Sometime tomorrow?

NHC canned yesterdays flight.... err! But next one is should be a go tomorrow
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... 801N1.html



NOAA 49 17:30-02:00 Z Synoptic Surviellance
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... 803N1.html

[CourierPR]

Sticking to my current forecast of it staying far enough to the east that only a few showers and high surf will be a problem.

I see the word "forecast." Where is the disclaimer?

[ronjon]

Overall consensus has shifted east. Not a big change though. 00z suite will be key, will determine if the 18z models are a fluke or if the trend has reversed again. This, combined with Emily's westward movement will likely result in a west shift in the 11pm cone.

Actually the NHC track is now east of the TVCN model consensus.

[itsahurricane]

Sticking to my current forecast of it staying far enough to the east that only a few showers and high surf will be a problem.

I see the word "forecast." Where is the disclaimer?

He already made the disclaimer. He is just addending his original forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

00z Tropical Models.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

Looks like NHC may shift back to the west, but not too much

About 100 mile shift to the west for the NHC hugging TVCN near the Florida coast, that's significant IMO! About 90 miles from WPB.

nearly 150 miles.. some more came west..

[Evil Jeremy]

Sticking to my current forecast of it staying far enough to the east that only a few showers and high surf will be a problem.

I see the word "forecast." Where is the disclaimer?

He already made the disclaimer. He is just addending his original forecast.

Every post with a forecast needs a disclaimer.

[SunnyThoughts]

When is the next G-IV flight? Sometime tomorrow?

NHC canned yesterdays flight.... err! But next one is should be a go tomorrow
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... 801N1.html



NOAA 49 17:30-02:00 Z Synoptic Surviellance
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... 803N1.html

Thanks so much for your reply stormhunter7 Greatly appreciated

[blp]

Every hour is moves West it is changing the angle. I notice from the SFWMD plots that this should already be on a WNW heading as soon as it passed 65W but the 8pm still confirms a West heading. It will be interesting to see how much further it goes. Small shifts now could be a big deal later.

[bamajammer4eva]

aric... seems when the BAMS suite starts showing small loops like that... it takes a few cycles and sometimes the Globals follow with a slow down or a bend one way or another. I know there shallow models, but if i remember from past... its usually a sign of missing the trough coming through and allowing the ridge build back, or just maybe slightly stronger ridge. Interesting to see this trend, but cant wait til we get the G-IV data into the globals! That should greatly help us understand more.

Seems like the Bam models were the first to pick up on Jeanne's loop in 04

[stormhunter7]

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2011/AL052011/0802/1930/AL052011_0802_1930_contour08.png

[Aric Dunn]

Overall consensus has shifted east. Not a big change though. 00z suite will be key, will determine if the 18z models are a fluke or if the trend has reversed again. This, combined with Emily's westward movement will likely result in a west shift in the 11pm cone.

Actually the NHC track is now east of the TVCN model consensus.

yep about 75 miles east of the TCVN

[Kory]

Sorry if I didn't put a disclaimer...I'm new to the forum.

[itsahurricane]

Every post with a forecast needs a disclaimer.

That is repetitive; there ought to be a disclaimer in the beginning of a thread instead of having to place it in every post with a forecast.

[JPmia]

When is the next G-IV flight? Sometime tomorrow?

I've been told tomorrow evening and then that data will be included in the Thursday 12z models.

[Kory]

Sticking to my current forecast of it staying far enough to the east that only a few showers and high surf will be a problem. It might wrap in some dry continental air on the west side.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Better guys...I put the disclaimer?

[AdamFirst]

Lets try to keep things civilized and on topic, folks. Forgive the new guy, everyone makes mistakes.

[cycloneye]

Sorry if I didn't put a disclaimer...I'm new to the forum.

Welcome to storm2k.

I add it to the post.

Ok, lets move on to the topic.

[stormhunter7]

August 03, 2011 NOAA 49 17:30-02:00 Z Synoptic Surviellance NOAA 49

[Evil Jeremy]

Overall consensus has shifted east. Not a big change though. 00z suite will be key, will determine if the 18z models are a fluke or if the trend has reversed again. This, combined with Emily's westward movement will likely result in a west shift in the 11pm cone.

Actually the NHC track is now east of the TVCN model consensus.

yep about 75 miles east of the TCVN

And they were west of the TCVN for the 5pm. They won't shift all the way to be over the TCVN. They love their cone-to-cone consistency. But there will be a shift.

[stormreader]

Every hour is moves West it is changing the angle. I notice from the SFWMD plots that this should already be on a WNW heading as soon as it passed 65W but the 8pm still confirms a West heading. It will be interesting to see how much further it goes. Small shifts now could be a big deal later.

A more westerly angle in the Carribean might allow the storm to scrape along the southern coast of Hispaniola instead of going directly over it. This might allow Emily to cross over the southern penninsula in Haiti and trek over the Mona Passage and extreme E Cuba. Could allow for less disruption in the storm.