ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ozonepete]

Off topic, but LOL.

[SunnyThoughts]

plane is taking off around 12:15 right, what time will it get to the storm, will there be constant recon basically after that?

Cronk, I don't think it will take them long to get there, as they are taking off from a short distance from the area. And I believe the fixes are for every 6 hours. So I guess ( unless a problem arises with one of the aircraft) we could see recon there at least every 6 hours...along with the G-IV flights to gather synoptic info mixed in as well.

[Aric Dunn]

no center is well west of that convection in that microwave image.... also been doing my best plot center estimates with long range.. a lot easier now that there is some actual convection near the center. anyway the last couple hours has been moving about 275 to 280.

[ozonepete]

BTW, welcome Kory! And when I say stick to your guns to anyone, I assume they are making an honest attempt at a forecast and have data to back it up. The science is too good here to have it any other way. Okay, back to topic...

[CDO62]

It appears to me after watching the numerous sat loops for the last few hours that the "blob" is right on the NHC/s current track. Why would the NHC change their track because the models keep flipping back and forth with each run?

[Evil Jeremy]

no center is well west of that convection in that microwave image.... also been doing my best plot center estimates with long range.. a lot easier now that there is some actual convection near the center. anyway the last couple hours has been moving about 275 to 280.

Where would you fix the center right now?

[Aric Dunn]

Still booking it right along to the west it would appear.

yes very much so.. at a good clip too..

[AdamFirst]

It appears to me after watching the numerous sat loops for the last few hours that the "blob" is right on the NHC/s current track. Why would the NHC change their track because the models keep flipping back and forth with each run?

Because the "blob" is not necessarily where the center of circulation is.

[wxman57]

It appears to me after watching the numerous sat loops for the last few hours that the "blob" is right on the NHC/s current track. Why would the NHC change their track because the models keep flipping back and forth with each run?

Emily appears on track. However, 00Z models did shift a bit from near the eastern Bahamas to the central Bahamas. Consensus is about 50-60 miles west of the 21Z NHC track through the Bahamas, closer to eastern Andros Island. I think the NHC will nudge their track a little west closer to Andros Island next hour. That would be right on my track from this afternoon.

[capepoint]

That sharp right hook by both the 00z BAMS and BAMM is bizarre. Wouldn't expect anything like that to occur unless a strong fall front is coming down.

NWS MHX progs a front dropping thru eastern NC towards the end of the week, then retreating north as a warm front sat/sun.....................

[Aric Dunn]

still not sure why it looks like DON ... lol I cant seem to find very high shear..

[CronkPSU]

plane is taking off around 12:15 right, what time will it get to the storm, will there be constant recon basically after that?

Cronk, I don't think it will take them long to get there, as they are taking off from a short distance from the area. And I believe the fixes are for every 6 hours. So I guess ( unless a problem arises with one of the aircraft) we could see recon there at least every 6 hours...along with the G-IV flights to gather synoptic info mixed in as well.

thanks, i run an overnight camp in orlando so i am trying to figure out what to do with all the campers this weekend, if we need to make plans to get them all out and stuff....hundreds of live oaks and strong winds are not a good combo so i am trying to digest every nugget of info since i really need to have something to tell parents within 24 hours

[SouthDadeFish]

still not sure why it looks like DON ... lol I cant seem to find very high shear..

it's under 10-20 knots of western shear according to CIMSS

[ozonepete]

It appears to me after watching the numerous sat loops for the last few hours that the "blob" is right on the NHC/s current track. Why would the NHC change their track because the models keep flipping back and forth with each run?

They won't, and they don't. They don't have the luxury of making big speculations. They have to "smooth out" erratic behaviour in the models for consistencies sake. Having to stick to that makes them better at it and is one big reason why they're the experts.

[Aric Dunn]

The NAM is rolling in ..

[SunnyThoughts]

I know Aric. 2 systems in a row...with the center of circulation actually displaced from the majority of the convection. And main part of the convection actually "shaped" in such a way that it looks as though the actual LLC should be in the center of the convection. I don't know any other way to explain it, I hope folks get what I mean.

[Aric Dunn]

00z NAM has significant more ridging again.. the trough retreats the the large ridge the east build back west again.. .... as a result emily is much farther west.. but not worried about track with NAM just the synoptics..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012m.gif

[JPmia]

It appears to me after watching the numerous sat loops for the last few hours that the "blob" is right on the NHC/s current track. Why would the NHC change their track because the models keep flipping back and forth with each run?

Emily appears on track. However, 00Z models did shift a bit from near the eastern Bahamas to the central Bahamas. Consensus is about 50-60 miles west of the 21Z NHC track through the Bahamas, closer to eastern Andros Island. I think the NHC will nudge their track a little west closer to Andros Island next hour. That would be right on my track from this afternoon.

Wxman57 what is your forecast error in miles that many days out? same as NHC?

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:

Off topic, but LOL.

THANKS, i suppose that Emily bring some pressure for everbody it's time to have fun and relax...

[wxsouth]

Systems remains vertically tilted with low-level center outrunning the mid-level center. This is pretty clear from in the base velocity from San Juan where two distinct areas of rotation can be seen at different altitudes.