ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Re:

#5341 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:03 pm

wxsouth wrote:Systems remains vertically tilted with low-level center outrunning the mid-level center. This is pretty clear from in the base velocity from San Juan where two distinct areas of rotation can be seen at different altitudes.


yep... low level flow too fast causing the shear ?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5342 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:04 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Still booking it right along to the west it would appear.

Image



I agree, maybe not due west, but slightly north of due west.
Based at the 8 PM AST estimated position by the NHC, she would have had to start tracking on a 295-300 deg heading to catch on her 8 AM AST forecast position. Clearly she does not have that heading right now, 285 deg heading at most.
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Re:

#5343 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:00z NAM has significant more ridging again.. the trough retreats the the large ridge the east build back west again.. .... as a result emily is much farther west.. but not worried about track with NAM just the synoptics..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012m.gif


Aric,

Do you feel as if the other models will follow as they have done the last couple of days. If so how much of a shift minor or big ones?
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#5344 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:07 pm

wow ok... the NAM build strong ridging and squashes emily.. lo
j/k not sure what its doing ... but ridginf is stronger
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#5345 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:08 pm

lol @ squashes Emily...well uhm...thats new!
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Re: Re:

#5346 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:10 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:00z NAM has significant more ridging again.. the trough retreats the the large ridge the east build back west again.. .... as a result emily is much farther west.. but not worried about track with NAM just the synoptics..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012m.gif


Aric,

Do you feel as if the other models will follow as they have done the last couple of days. If so how much of a shift minor or big ones?


this run seems to big difference from the 12 and 18z NAM in terms ok track... the synoptics is a medium change with the western extent of the ridging.. I would giving the trough has not pushed any farther south today and is north of where the models said it would stop. I would imagine at least a little shift back west. and of course the continued west track of emily will add to that.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5347 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:10 pm

With a very strong ridge to the north I might buy into a little flat on the the top or north section of the storm but not squashing it. :D
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#5348 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:12 pm

Aric, I am not sure what you are seeing. If you take the 18Z 18 HR (since 00Z is 12 HR that you posted)....I actually see a little more ridging in the 18Z:

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5349 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:13 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:With a very strong ridge to the north I might buy into a little flat on the the top or north section of the storm but not squashing it. :D


well I said that becasue at the 500 mb level NAM split the vortex and i though it lost it .. but then it popped up north of DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re:

#5350 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:Aric, I am not sure what you are seeing. If you take the 18Z 18 HR (since 00Z is 12 HR that you posted)....I actually see a little more ridging in the 18Z:

Image


look at the flow though and how fast the trough is retreating.. its quite clear when you toggle the two images in different tabs.
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#5351 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:17 pm

The anticyclone displaced to the SW is causing 10-20 knots of westerly shear of Emily. Vorticity products from CIMSS shows the low and mid-level centers to be unstacked. Seems like she is still quite messy....
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#5352 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:23 pm

Well the 00Z NAM is quite the fan of a pretty large ridge...
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#5353 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:25 pm

has it riding the north coast of Cuba..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5354 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:29 pm

NAM 00Z has the trough uh... passsing Emily by to the north but keeping a weak Emily on the northern Cuban coast on a wnw track towards the Florida Straights.... still think tmrws 18z and 00Z models will have a better handle.. due to the G-VI data if the jet flies! :)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5355 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:32 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:NAM 00Z has the trough uh... passsing Emily by to the north but keeping a weak Emily on the northern Cuban coast on a wnw track towards the Florida Straights.... still think tmrws 18z and 00Z models will have a better handle.. due to the G-VI data if the jet flies! :)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


The NAM: "what trough?" :lol:
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Re:

#5356 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:32 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:The anticyclone displaced to the SW is causing 10-20 knots of westerly shear of Emily. Vorticity products from CIMSS shows the low and mid-level centers to be unstacked. Seems like she is still quite messy....


To be close to exact, around 15 knots, but must important mid level shear is not a big problem.

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5357 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:32 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:NAM 00Z has the trough uh... passsing Emily by to the north but keeping a weak Emily on the northern Cuban coast on a wnw track towards the Florida Straights.... still think tmrws 18z and 00Z models will have a better handle.. due to the G-VI data if the jet flies! :)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



yes that data will be very helpful... they should have flown it today..

by 00z tomorrow it will be approaching DR ... and if its still heading west by tomorrow through all the models out that turned it into eastern hispanola.. the west motion does not seem like its changing yet even though it should have already started to more WNW motion,..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5358 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:33 pm

NDG wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Still booking it right along to the west it would appear.

Image



I agree, maybe not due west, but slightly north of due west.
Based at the 8 PM AST estimated position by the NHC, she would have had to start tracking on a 295-300 deg heading to catch on her 8 AM AST forecast position. Clearly she does not have that heading right now, 285 deg heading at most.



WOW did the center just move or reform wswward?
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#5359 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:34 pm

Think FL is still definitely in play.
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Re:

#5360 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:35 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Think FL is still definitely in play.



yes
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