ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030440
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 04 20110803
043000 1729N 06610W 8423 01589 0119 +162 +089 128035 036 029 000 00
043030 1728N 06612W 8430 01580 0122 +160 +090 130036 037 029 000 00
043100 1726N 06613W 8424 01587 0122 +158 +090 132037 038 028 000 00
043130 1725N 06614W 8423 01588 0120 +160 +090 129036 037 026 000 00
043200 1724N 06615W 8430 01581 0122 +160 +091 129037 037 027 000 00
043230 1723N 06616W 8425 01584 0121 +157 +091 131039 039 028 000 00
043300 1722N 06618W 8428 01582 0120 +160 +091 128038 038 029 001 00
043330 1721N 06619W 8429 01581 0119 +160 +091 126038 038 029 000 00
043400 1719N 06620W 8426 01583 0117 +163 +092 124037 037 029 000 00
043430 1718N 06621W 8428 01580 0115 +164 +092 125037 037 030 000 00
043500 1717N 06623W 8432 01577 0112 +165 +093 126037 038 030 001 00
043530 1716N 06624W 8426 01583 0111 +168 +093 128037 038 029 000 00
043600 1715N 06625W 8426 01582 0114 +165 +094 129038 039 030 001 00
043630 1714N 06626W 8429 01578 0114 +165 +094 127041 042 029 002 00
043700 1712N 06628W 8430 01577 0115 +161 +093 127042 042 030 000 00
043730 1711N 06629W 8426 01579 0113 +163 +093 128043 043 031 001 00
043800 1710N 06630W 8427 01578 0109 +166 +093 129043 043 030 002 00
043830 1709N 06631W 8428 01578 0110 +166 +092 128043 043 031 000 00
043900 1708N 06632W 8430 01575 0107 +169 +092 131044 044 031 001 00
043930 1707N 06634W 8425 01580 0107 +166 +092 130045 045 031 000 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

A N-S pass would be nice.

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wzrgirl1]

However correct me if I am wrong but If there is no center then wouldn't the trip over Hispanoila not effect it much leaving room for intensification when it emerges off the coast??

[SouthDadeFish]

I guess recon is staying at 5000 feet this time through.

[NDG]

A N-S pass would be nice.

It is heading towards its SW quadrant after intercepting its COC, so we should still have an idea if it has a closed circ.

[HurricaneWarning92]

However correct me if I am wrong but If there is no center then wouldn't the trip over Hispanoila not effect it much leaving room for intensification when it emerges off the coast??

i believe it can do that, but it can also just fizzle it, and well... Emily... is then... history.

[SouthDadeFish]

A N-S pass would be nice.

It is heading towards its SW quadrant after intercepting its COC, so we should still have an idea if it has a closed circ.

Yep, I noticed this as well.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030450
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 05 20110803
044000 1705N 06635W 8429 01573 0109 +164 +092 130044 045 032 000 00
044030 1704N 06636W 8425 01575 0108 +162 +092 131043 044 032 000 00
044100 1703N 06637W 8429 01574 0104 +169 +092 131040 042 033 001 00
044130 1702N 06639W 8430 01571 0103 +169 +092 129038 039 033 000 00
044200 1701N 06640W 8424 01576 0102 +168 +092 127037 038 034 000 00
044230 1700N 06641W 8432 01567 0101 +170 +092 125038 039 036 001 00
044300 1658N 06642W 8430 01567 0099 +170 +092 121042 045 037 000 00
044330 1657N 06643W 8419 01579 0107 +156 +092 117041 043 036 007 00
044400 1656N 06645W 8425 01571 0108 +151 +090 121045 047 036 007 00
044430 1655N 06646W 8428 01570 0096 +171 +086 117044 045 036 001 00
044500 1654N 06647W 8428 01567 0097 +170 +086 114044 045 037 000 00
044530 1652N 06649W 8428 01567 0093 +172 +088 113045 046 039 001 00
044600 1651N 06650W 8425 01567 0092 +172 +090 111036 039 041 000 00
044630 1650N 06651W 8425 01567 0088 +176 +091 110033 036 042 000 00
044700 1649N 06652W 8430 01561 0084 +181 +093 111024 026 041 000 00
044730 1647N 06654W 8427 01564 0084 +181 +094 121021 022 040 001 03
044800 1646N 06654W 8427 01562 0088 +174 +095 116023 024 039 000 00
044830 1644N 06655W 8428 01564 0087 +175 +094 115024 024 038 000 00
044900 1643N 06656W 8429 01560 0086 +175 +095 122024 025 039 000 00
044930 1641N 06657W 8429 01558 0086 +174 +095 128022 023 038 001 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030500
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 06 20110803
045000 1640N 06658W 8429 01556 0086 +173 +095 128023 024 037 000 03
045030 1639N 06659W 8432 01556 0084 +174 +095 134023 024 037 000 00
045100 1637N 06700W 8429 01555 0082 +176 +096 132023 025 036 000 00
045130 1636N 06701W 8427 01560 0084 +172 +095 137024 026 036 002 00
045200 1635N 06702W 8435 01547 0087 +166 +094 140024 025 034 004 00
045230 1634N 06703W 8428 01557 0085 +170 +092 138024 025 025 000 03
045300 1633N 06704W 8425 01560 0084 +169 +091 139023 024 026 002 00
045330 1631N 06705W 8425 01556 0084 +166 +092 138023 023 025 001 00
045400 1630N 06707W 8428 01556 0080 +170 +091 142022 022 026 000 00
045430 1629N 06708W 8429 01555 0084 +164 +091 142019 020 026 004 00
045500 1628N 06709W 8429 01552 0078 +173 +091 138020 021 025 002 00
045530 1627N 06710W 8428 01552 0076 +175 +091 139018 020 025 001 00
045600 1626N 06712W 8430 01548 0077 +171 +093 138017 018 025 001 00
045630 1625N 06713W 8425 01552 0074 +176 +094 142016 016 022 000 00
045700 1624N 06714W 8425 01556 0070 +183 +094 140014 015 022 001 00
045730 1623N 06715W 8434 01546 0073 +180 +096 161013 015 023 003 03
045800 1622N 06717W 8420 01558 0070 +176 +098 158012 014 021 000 00
045830 1621N 06718W 8429 01549 0070 +179 +097 153008 009 020 001 00
045900 1620N 06720W 8432 01546 0070 +179 +097 165006 007 016 000 03
045930 1620N 06721W 8421 01555 0068 +180 +098 174006 006 015 000 00
$$
;

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well, one thing is for sure. If Emily hadnt been struggling with dry air, etc, she would have most likely exploded, and quite possible we would be dealing with a major hurricane right now. I say this because as you all can see, even though it remains disorganized, it has been able to sustain VERY deep convection for one entire day, and still doing so..

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[JonathanBelles]

My forecast for tonight:

It hinges on three things: localized relocations, Hispaniola, and the high pressure in the Atlantic.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/2011/08/03/a-hop-skip-and-a-tropical-storm-emily-jump-forecast-2/



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hylian Auree]

Annular tropical storm?
Just kidding. But for a dis-collocated storm, it certainly has a hell of a healthy mid-level circulation.

[NDG]

Looks like her LLC raced away from her MLC during the past few hours.

[wzrgirl1]

So the 00Z GFS poops to the west just a little bit. What do you think the new GFDL and HWRF will do? They should update in about 1 hour?

HWRF usually at about 1230-1245am CDT
GFDL 1240-1250

Are these out yet?

[SFLcane]

So the 00Z GFS poops to the west just a little bit. What do you think the new GFDL and HWRF will do? They should update in about 1 hour?

HWRF usually at about 1230-1245am CDT
GFDL 1240-1250

Are these out yet?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/00zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2hwrfLoop.html

About the same as the 18z run. HWRF 00z

[wzrgirl1]

Hmmmm....that doesn't look like a recurve to me.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030510
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 07 20110803
050000 1620N 06723W 8425 01549 0063 +186 +099 245004 005 016 000 03
050030 1619N 06725W 8436 01541 0062 +190 +100 289004 004 018 000 03
050100 1619N 06726W 8425 01549 0058 +196 +100 310006 006 019 001 03
050130 1619N 06728W 8425 01549 0059 +193 +100 319009 010 018 000 03
050200 1618N 06729W 8429 01545 0063 +185 +101 311010 011 016 001 00
050230 1616N 06730W 8425 01547 0064 +184 +101 303010 011 014 001 00
050300 1615N 06732W 8429 01544 0060 +189 +100 295010 011 015 000 00
050330 1614N 06733W 8426 01549 0057 +197 +100 306012 012 016 001 00
050400 1613N 06734W 8429 01545 0057 +200 +101 314012 012 017 001 00
050430 1612N 06735W 8428 01551 0060 +197 +101 317012 013 020 002 00
050500 1610N 06736W 8428 01549 0061 +193 +102 322013 013 015 002 00
050530 1609N 06738W 8429 01550 0061 +195 +101 326014 015 015 000 00
050600 1608N 06739W 8429 01553 0062 +195 +101 328015 015 012 000 00
050630 1607N 06740W 8426 01555 0064 +195 +101 332014 015 013 000 00
050700 1605N 06741W 8428 01555 0066 +192 +101 333015 015 011 001 00
050730 1604N 06742W 8428 01554 0067 +192 +101 334014 014 010 000 00
050800 1603N 06744W 8429 01554 0070 +187 +101 336013 014 009 000 00
050830 1602N 06745W 8426 01555 0070 +187 +100 343013 013 008 000 00
050900 1601N 06746W 8428 01555 0073 +186 +100 342012 012 009 000 00
050930 1559N 06747W 8429 01553 0071 +185 +100 344011 012 007 000 00
$$
;