WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[StormingB81]

Kadena Weather now calling for Cat 4 winds here on Okinawa:

-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, midnight Wednesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 8 a.m. Thursday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 3 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 3 p.m. Thursday-9 a.m. Saturday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 132-mph sustained with 161-mph gusts, between 3 and 6 a.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 9 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 5 p.m. Saturday.

[euro6208]

the circulation center of muifa looks like a perfect circle to me. still, euro forecasting muifa to be at its strongest just off the coast of china. to everyone in her path, please be safe.

i would place the intensity of muifa at 125 knots 1 minute sustained winds.

[StormingB81]

eye is starting to close up again..

[Typhoon10]

Wow! She's really popping out a huge eye now. Even if it passes south of Okinawa we could still be in for some strong winds given the wind field will expand.

Looks a beast!

Just at airport now waiting for my flight in 1 hour!

James, what you going to do if it skips south of Okinawa and heads towards Shanghai?

Be safe!

[Chacor]

i would place the intensity of muifa at 125 knots 1 minute sustained winds.

Given an eyewall replacement cycle is occurring, I doubt that that is the case.

[dwsqos2]

Yeah, the current intensity is probably much less than 125 knots 1-minute; note the SAB satellite intensity estimate.

03/0230 UTC 24.2N 132.3E T4.5/5.5 MUIFA -- West Pacific

[dexterlabio]

I see multiple eyewalls now. Does it really want to make a larger eye now? If the eyewall structure won't become solid, I suppose Muifa can't get stronger than 120kts.

[StormingB81]

Okinawa is now TCCOR 2

[Evil Jeremy]

My bad lol

[StormingB81]

The eye appears to be reappearing....

[StormingB81]

Some guy asked my when the storm was supposed to be here like he knew nothing about the storm....I was like wow!

[StormingB81]

JTWC down to 105 knots

[StormingB81]

WOW! the WPAC has exploded.....1 typhoon, 1 TS and 1 TD...

[Infdidoll]

Man, the military agencies on Facebook are going NUTS reporting this storm and their tone is all gloom and doom. I've never heard them like this. No wonder military people are actually starting to panic. Locals still cool as always.

Everyone keeps saying gusts up to 162 mph? Is that accurate? For a storm that's a Cat 3? Those sound like Cat 4 gusts!

[KWT]

Max winds may have come down but the wind field has almost certaintly expanded.

Going to be a long ole storm for those directly in the path.

[Infdidoll]

Commander Fleet Activities Okinawa
Okinawa went to TCCOR-2 at about 1615, 3 Aug. This means that we expect damaging winds of 50 knots or greater within the next 24 hours. If you haven't yet taken steps to prepare, you're quickly running out of time. Do you have food? Water? Gas in the car? Have you looked at the preparendess pamplet

AFN Okinawa
If you need sandbags, all Eagle Hardware stores are open until 7pm for those authorized to use Eagle Hardware...
Also, the KAB Commissary is open until **8:30pm** for those still needing typhoon supplies...

KadenaAirBase
We are currently in TCCOR-2. -- mizuumi

U.S. Naval Hospital Okinawa, Japan
MEDICAL NOTE: Double check medical supplies you are currently using, such as wound dressings, diabetic supplies, etc. to make sure you have enough to last you from now through the weekend.

U.S. Naval Hospital Okinawa, Japan
Military installations in Okinawa are now in TCCOR-2... Destructive winds of 50 knots or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. If you haven't already done so, move or secure all outside items so they don't end up in the neighbor's living room.

Camps Foster & Lester
BULLETIN: AS of 1615 we are in TCCOR II. Typhoon Muifa is located 300 miles east-southeast with winds of 135 knots moving northwest at 7 knots. Damaging winds of 50 knots sustained or greater are expected to occur from 04/1500-06/0500. The strongest winds on Okinawa are expected to be sustained at 110 knots with 135 knots from 05/0500L - 05/0700L.

III Marine Expeditionary Force/Marine Corps Bases Japan
‎*** SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT *** We are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) - 2. Destructive winds of 50 knots (58 MPH) sustained or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. Continue securing outside items and be prepared to cover broken windows. Stay alert for future changes to the TCCOR. We will continue to keep you posted with the latest updates on Typhoon Muifa.

Commander Fleet Activities Okinawa
Typhoon Muifa has made its turn toward Okinawa. We can pretty much count on a direct hit with very heavy winds. See the details on expected winds at http://weather.kadenaforcesupp​ort.com/update/tcir.html. Get your CFAO Typhoon Preparedness Pamphlet from http://www.cnic.navy.mil/Okina​wa/OperationsAndManagement/Eme​rgencyManagement/CNICD_A095158 and make sure your kits are ready. ~EMO

As you see, we are not short of information this time. All this within the last few hours. Being inundated! Looks like Songda woke our administrative peeps up.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Landed safely! In my Toyoko Inn in downtown Naha, damn I love this hotel chain. Rental car sorted too - bet you couldn't rent one in US with a cat. 3 lurking nearby

Bug difference in track between JMA and JTWC, as Storming said every wobble counts from now on. If it pops that huge eye again likelihood of destructive winds, even if Muifa passes a fair distance south, will increase. Gonna get lots of rest tonight and expect to be one the go from dawn tomorrow for at least 24 hours!

[KWT]

Stay safe TH, hope you get a good blast. As you say given the inner core structure, I suspect the wind radius will be quite chunky, maybe not as extreme as Ike but its got a similar profile...

[Infdidoll]

Landed safely! In my Toyoko Inn in downtown Naha, damn I love this hotel chain. Rental car sorted too - bet you couldn't rent one in US with a cat. 3 lurking nearby

Bug difference in track between JMA and JTWC, as Storming said every wobble counts from now on. If it pops that huge eye again likelihood of destructive winds, even if Muifa passes a fair distance south, will increase. Gonna get lots of rest tonight and expect to be one the go from dawn tomorrow for at least 24 hours!

Haha! These people must think you are crazy! But that's one thing they love in Japan -crazy. I know where that hotel is! I think you're only about 5 or 6 miles down the road from us. If JTWC's prediction panned out, the storm is supposed to be 41 NM from Kadena, it will be about 30 NM to Naha.

[Chacor]

Muifa has wobbled south of the forecast JTWC track.