ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jlauderdal]

NOAA 00z 3 KM HWRF rakes the FL east coast with a CAT 2 hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080300-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

these types of runs cause distress at nhc, a few miles makes a huge difference in that setup

[KWT]

I missed a few sets...

000
URNT15 KNHC 031010
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 37 20110803
100000 1734N 06954W 8426 01569 0104 +161 +068 069026 027 020 000 00
100030 1734N 06956W 8429 01570 0101 +167 +067 065025 027 021 000 00
100100 1735N 06957W 8428 01569 0097 +173 +067 065023 024 019 000 00
100130 1735N 06959W 8426 01572 0100 +170 +068 065024 024 020 000 00
100200 1736N 07001W 8428 01569 0100 +170 +068 065025 025 022 000 00
100230 1736N 07003W 8428 01570 0102 +170 +068 064024 024 022 000 00
100300 1737N 07004W 8428 01569 0102 +166 +068 064025 025 021 002 00
100330 1737N 07006W 8413 01583 0102 +168 +068 065029 032 021 001 00
100400 1738N 07008W 8433 01566 0099 +169 +068 068027 028 021 000 00
100430 1738N 07010W 8425 01577 0104 +174 +067 068024 024 /// /// 03
100500 1736N 07011W 8429 01567 0098 +175 +068 064023 023 024 000 03
100530 1735N 07012W 8426 01570 0098 +175 +068 061023 023 025 000 00
100600 1733N 07012W 8429 01569 0096 +176 +068 060023 023 027 001 00
100630 1731N 07013W 8429 01568 0097 +174 +067 062024 024 026 001 00
100700 1730N 07014W 8425 01572 0098 +172 +067 060023 024 026 001 00
100730 1728N 07014W 8431 01565 0096 +175 +067 057023 024 027 000 00
100800 1727N 07015W 8426 01571 0095 +175 +067 064025 025 026 001 00
100830 1725N 07016W 8425 01570 0097 +173 +067 060023 026 027 000 00
100900 1723N 07016W 8429 01567 0096 +174 +067 060023 024 026 000 00
100930 1722N 07017W 8425 01568 0097 +170 +067 060023 024 024 001 00
$$
;

[South Texas Storms]

is HWRF any good model?

It's a pretty good model imo. Similar to the GFDL.

[floridasun78]

RL3AO, not impossible for a short term motion for it to average 305 but it sure seems to be on a pretty solid due west track at the moment doesn't it!

our local cbs station has their lead weathercaster(lisette is still on too guys) on this morning and he acknowledged this west motion and the fact it better start turning pronto

i hread that he say more west it go it wont get that weaker as cross haiti

[KWT]

NOAA 00z 3 KM HWRF rakes the FL east coast with a CAT 2 hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080300-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Ouch you can't get closer to landfall without actually having a landfall, the east coast gets raked by the eyewall on that run!

[KWT]

Of course it could just be that Emily is stair-stepping, so for example it may well move NW for a few hours later today and move on a broad 285 track, but obviously not on a straight 285.

[Evil Jeremy]

06 GFS similar to the previous run, no major shifts.

[caneman]

So. Fl may be in for a little wake up call. Clearly it is more West now of NHC forecast points. Looks like models will be shifting West. Another 12 hours of this movement and it looks like it will avoid the tallest of mountains. Further, in NHC write up, they expect strengthening once North of Hisp.

[wzrgirl1]

RL3AO, not impossible for a short term motion for it to average 305 but it sure seems to be on a pretty solid due west track at the moment doesn't it!

our local cbs station has their lead weathercaster(lisette is still on too guys) on this morning and he acknowledged this west motion and the fact it better start turning pronto

i hread that he say more west it go it wont get that weaker as cross haiti

Well it't not that strong to begin with but if it goes west further then it will have less mountaineous terrain to go over, but we should know more by tomorrow morning or late tonight. She sure is a fickle one, unlike any I have seen before. But then again aren't they all?

[floridasun78]

more west it go less weaker it be when cross hait

[KWT]

So. Fl may be in for a little wake up call. Clearly it is more West now of NHC forecast points. Looks like models will be shifting West. Another 12 hours of this movement and it looks like it will avoid the tallest of mountains. Further, in NHC write up, they expect strengthening once North of Hisp.

Yep, of course the big uncertainty is whether this motion is just a short term fix or whether its something which lasts longer. Wouldn't like to say!

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031020
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 38 20110803
101000 1720N 07018W 8426 01569 0096 +175 +067 059023 023 025 000 00
101030 1718N 07018W 8424 01571 0093 +178 +066 056023 024 024 001 00
101100 1717N 07019W 8432 01563 0095 +176 +066 055022 024 023 000 00
101130 1715N 07020W 8422 01574 0096 +175 +066 055020 021 024 000 00
101200 1713N 07021W 8429 01567 0096 +175 +065 057020 020 025 000 00
101230 1712N 07021W 8428 01572 0097 +171 +065 062020 020 026 001 00
101300 1710N 07022W 8429 01567 0096 +174 +065 061020 020 025 000 00
101330 1708N 07023W 8428 01568 0096 +175 +065 057020 020 025 000 00
101400 1707N 07023W 8426 01570 0100 +170 +065 058020 021 024 001 00
101430 1705N 07024W 8428 01568 0095 +176 +065 057019 019 026 001 00
101500 1703N 07025W 8427 01569 0094 +176 +066 056018 019 026 001 00
101530 1702N 07025W 8424 01573 0093 +175 +066 053019 019 024 001 00
101600 1700N 07026W 8428 01570 0097 +175 +067 052019 020 022 001 00
101630 1658N 07027W 8430 01567 0096 +175 +067 050020 021 017 000 00
101700 1657N 07028W 8427 01571 0095 +178 +067 051020 021 017 000 00
101730 1655N 07028W 8428 01569 0093 +179 +068 048019 020 018 000 00
101800 1653N 07029W 8430 01565 0096 +175 +068 051020 021 015 000 00
101830 1652N 07030W 8427 01569 0093 +179 +068 042020 020 015 000 00
101900 1650N 07030W 8429 01568 0093 +180 +068 040021 021 019 000 00
101930 1648N 07031W 8429 01568 0093 +177 +068 040021 021 019 001 00
$$
;

[floridasun78]

emily already 50mph if dont get weaker and their no shear in bahamas that mean she wont need that much to be cat 1 or strong ts

[crownweather]

Our latest discussion is now on "the streets". http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6583

[beoumont]

Do they actually look on the real movment or do they hang on the models no matter what?

Models are GUIDANCE, not forecasts; and just one source of guidance that is consulted. The NHC forecaster does not "pick one" model track and go with it. Their own body of knowledge and past experience with past storms in similar situations is a more important source of guidance. Their viewing the current data at various levels and recent past data are a very important source in formulating the human forecast.

Yes, the NHC forecasters site several of the models in their public discussions; as doing that is an easier way to relate to the public what is going to happen. It is easy, I guess to assume the forecaster completely or heavily relies on these models. The other factors and knowledge weigh more on their decisions, though. I would also suppose that some local meteorologists and others playing meteorologists (many TV guys and gals, forum forecasters, etc) rely completely on these models, though; as their experience, responsibility, and actual knowledge of hurricane forecasting is lacking.

One tool when viewing various of the computer models is to notate and apply the repeated error each of the models is making on the current system, or during the current season - as tweaks are done to the model formulations periodically.

[ronjon]

NOAA 00z 3 KM HWRF rakes the FL east coast with a CAT 2 hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080300-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Ouch you can't get closer to landfall without actually having a landfall, the east coast gets raked by the eyewall on that run!

It's interesting how the orientation of the west atlantic ridge mimics the orientation of the FL east coast. That could potentially be a very dangerous setup if Emily becomes a hurricane and stays just 10 or 20 miles offshore almost the entire length of the coast from WPB to JAX. This new model by NOAA, the 3 km HWRF, does anyone know anything about it other than I suspect it has finer resolution?

[Vortex]

Hats off to the nogaps/cmc/ecm a few days ago when it indicated a weaker solution and more west...I think it comes within 50-100 miles of the fl coastline AT LEAST...

[KWT]

If it does manage to survive the Hispaniola crossing then I'd imagine a hurricane is quite probable providing it doesn't make landfall in Florida, conditions look good aloft.

[floridasun78]

question we could answer by tonight or thur will go high land part islands or lower land part islands that be over haiti we need see wnw by 5pm or 11pm plus more west closer to south fl will pass by and stronger it could be

[Vortex]

the LLC is on the sw corner(slightly exposed)..no doubt it contunes due west...Wouldn't be surprised to see this cross eastern cuba....then strengthen near andros to a cane....