ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[floridasun78]

the LLC is on the sw corner(slightly exposed)..no doubt it contunes due west...Wouldn't be surprised to see this cross eastern cuba....then strengthen near andros to a cane....

i think it be western tip of haiti if keep moving west

[Nimbus]

That first trough is moving east pretty fast followed by the anticyclone high as it rolls out past 70W off Virginia. Maybe there will be a second trough? Guess I was expecting a more stationary TUTT kind of a situation.

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031030
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 39 20110803
102000 1647N 07032W 8428 01569 0094 +178 +068 045021 021 018 000 00
102030 1645N 07032W 8429 01568 0098 +171 +068 046021 021 018 000 00
102100 1643N 07033W 8429 01567 0097 +175 +068 047020 021 019 000 00
102130 1642N 07034W 8424 01574 0096 +175 +068 045019 019 021 000 00
102200 1640N 07035W 8430 01564 0094 +177 +068 043019 019 021 001 00
102230 1638N 07035W 8428 01570 0092 +180 +068 040018 019 021 000 00
102300 1637N 07036W 8430 01567 0093 +180 +068 040017 017 020 000 00
102330 1635N 07037W 8425 01570 0093 +176 +069 039017 017 020 000 00
102400 1633N 07037W 8429 01568 0093 +175 +069 039018 019 018 000 00
102430 1632N 07038W 8428 01570 0095 +177 +069 039019 020 018 002 00
102500 1630N 07039W 8428 01568 0094 +177 +069 040018 019 018 000 00
102530 1628N 07039W 8429 01568 0094 +180 +069 040018 018 017 001 00
102600 1627N 07040W 8428 01572 0093 +179 +070 039019 020 015 001 00
102630 1625N 07041W 8428 01570 0092 +183 +069 043019 020 015 000 00
102700 1623N 07042W 8429 01566 0091 +182 +070 044021 022 010 001 00
102730 1622N 07042W 8426 01572 0093 +180 +070 046022 022 012 001 00
102800 1620N 07043W 8428 01569 0095 +180 +069 047022 022 012 001 03
102830 1618N 07042W 8421 01576 0095 +180 +069 051020 020 /// /// 03
102900 1618N 07041W 8442 01557 0093 +180 +069 053020 020 007 000 03
102930 1618N 07039W 8424 01572 0092 +180 +069 051020 020 008 001 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

Hot-tower firing up.

[jlauderdal]

RL3AO, not impossible for a short term motion for it to average 305 but it sure seems to be on a pretty solid due west track at the moment doesn't it!

our local cbs station has their lead weathercaster(lisette is still on too guys) on this morning and he acknowledged this west motion and the fact it better start turning pronto

i hread that he say more west it go it wont get that weaker as cross haiti

u hread correct

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031040
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 40 20110803
103000 1617N 07038W 8429 01566 0089 +184 +067 053018 018 009 001 00
103030 1616N 07036W 8430 01565 0089 +180 +067 055017 018 008 000 00
103100 1616N 07035W 8426 01568 0092 +176 +066 047016 017 006 000 00
103130 1615N 07033W 8429 01568 0094 +177 +066 044018 019 015 001 03
103200 1615N 07032W 8428 01566 0092 +179 +065 047017 018 018 000 03
103230 1615N 07030W 8426 01570 0091 +180 +065 046014 016 020 000 00
103300 1615N 07029W 8429 01566 0091 +180 +065 050014 015 017 000 00
103330 1615N 07027W 8428 01568 0089 +183 +065 048014 015 017 000 00
103400 1616N 07025W 8432 01563 0089 +183 +065 048016 016 017 000 00
103430 1616N 07024W 8426 01567 0091 +178 +065 043016 017 018 000 00
103500 1616N 07022W 8428 01567 0089 +184 +065 043016 017 017 000 00
103530 1616N 07021W 8428 01567 0088 +182 +065 042015 015 015 000 00
103600 1616N 07019W 8432 01563 0088 +182 +065 052014 015 015 000 00
103630 1616N 07017W 8428 01564 0089 +180 +065 049013 013 014 000 00
103700 1616N 07016W 8429 01564 0090 +178 +065 042014 016 011 001 00
103730 1617N 07014W 8426 01565 0090 +180 +065 038016 016 009 000 00
103800 1617N 07012W 8429 01564 0090 +177 +065 039016 017 009 000 00
103830 1617N 07011W 8426 01566 0090 +176 +065 035016 017 008 000 00
103900 1617N 07009W 8430 01561 0091 +176 +065 038016 017 006 001 00
103930 1617N 07008W 8428 01567 0093 +175 +065 053015 016 009 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Interesting because that hot tower is right near an eddy that is a little south of the center, may well be what is trying to drag the center back south and prevent it fromgaining too much latitutde.

[GCANE]

Hot-tower firing up.

Actually, it has been firing since 0715Z

This may have an effect on forecasted shear before making landfall over Hispaniola.

[wzrgirl1]

Trying to find out some info on what an eddy is. Can't seem to find anything. Can someone enlighten me? Always learning.......

[GCANE]

Interesting because that hot tower is right near an eddy that is a little south of the center, may well be what is trying to drag the center back south and prevent it fromgaining too much latitutde.

Yes agreed, WV seems to indicate the mid-level circulation moving south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[floridasun78]

Trying to find out some info on what an eddy is. Can't seem to find anything. Can someone enlighten me? Always learning.......

eddy area warm water if i not mistaking what i heard before

[wzrgirl1]

Trying to find out some info on what an eddy is. Can't seem to find anything. Can someone enlighten me? Always learning.......

eddy area warm water if i not mistaking what i heard before

Warmer then the oceans around it? I don't understand sorry.

[northjaxpro]

Emily has already passed the 68 degree longitude point, which was supposed to be about when the northwest turn was to have started on several of the dynamical model runs 24-36 hours ago.

Also, the system is being impacted by some westerly shear this morning. I think it is very possible that Emily in its continued weakened state keeps moving farther westward than initially forecast. If she gets beyond 70 degrees longitude before making the true northwest turn, then I believe the whole ball game will change in terms of Emily's effects on the SE U.S. coast. If this scenario comes to fruition, Emily will definitely be closer initially to impact the coastal areas before she makes the move to curve out to sea.

There is still so much uncertainty right now for sure. NOTHING is set in stone yet in terms of the intensity and track of Emily.

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031050
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 41 20110803
104000 1617N 07006W 8426 01565 0093 +175 +065 061014 015 009 001 00
104030 1618N 07004W 8428 01563 0091 +175 +065 055013 013 009 001 00
104100 1618N 07003W 8429 01563 0090 +178 +066 053013 014 009 000 00
104130 1618N 07001W 8428 01565 0090 +179 +066 049016 018 008 000 00
104200 1618N 07000W 8428 01566 0089 +180 +066 049018 018 008 000 00
104230 1618N 06958W 8427 01565 0087 +181 +066 048020 020 008 000 00
104300 1618N 06957W 8427 01566 0087 +180 +067 046017 018 009 001 00
104330 1619N 06955W 8428 01568 0087 +180 +067 046015 015 009 000 00
104400 1619N 06953W 8428 01564 0088 +180 +067 042016 016 009 000 00
104430 1619N 06952W 8429 01561 0087 +181 +067 036016 016 008 001 00
104500 1619N 06950W 8429 01563 0085 +184 +067 029017 018 011 001 00
104530 1619N 06948W 8428 01566 0088 +179 +067 021018 018 011 000 00
104600 1619N 06947W 8426 01569 0089 +178 +067 024017 017 012 001 00
104630 1619N 06945W 8427 01563 0088 +180 +067 029016 017 015 000 00
104700 1619N 06943W 8432 01560 0089 +180 +066 028017 019 012 000 00
104730 1619N 06942W 8426 01564 0087 +181 +066 031020 020 015 000 00
104800 1619N 06940W 8425 01568 0085 +185 +067 035018 019 014 001 00
104830 1619N 06939W 8431 01561 0085 +184 +067 032016 016 014 000 00
104900 1619N 06937W 8430 01560 0085 +180 +068 028016 017 014 000 00
104930 1619N 06935W 8424 01568 0083 +184 +068 024016 016 012 000 00
$$
;

[ronjon]

Yeah NorthJax you can see the circulation in long range RAD out of San Juan. It is way south of Hispaniola now and unless it turns dramatically NW, it may miss the DR and skirt near the SW corner of Haiti.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[floridasun78]

Trying to find out some info on what an eddy is. Can't seem to find anything. Can someone enlighten me? Always learning.......

eddy area warm water if i not mistaking what i heard before

Warmer then the oceans around it? I don't understand sorry.

area warmer water

[NDG]

What should we do with the models this morning, if Emily continues to move almost due west this morning, lol.

[KWT]

Trying to find out some info on what an eddy is. Can't seem to find anything. Can someone enlighten me? Always learning.......

Its just another weak circulation that is present within the broader circulation, usually not the dominant low.

Quite a complex situation this morning thats for sure...

[sunnyday]

How large is Emily? If it passes between 50 and 100 miles from the east Fl coast, will they get any effects from it due to its size? Thank you for answering.

[KWT]

FWIW recon going to have one more pass through from the looks of things before heading back to base so we'll hopefully get a good idea about what its been doing in the last 2hrs.