ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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#5641 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:59 am

its pretty clear whats happening... this continued more westerly motion is causing emily to pass forecast points which this turn more NW later and later. Its going to miss this next forecast point again. models will be shifting west if this keeps happening,.
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#5642 Postby jpigott » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:00 am

KWT wrote:FWIW recon going to have one more pass through from the looks of things before heading back to base so we'll hopefully get a good idea about what its been doing in the last 2hrs.


Hopefully they get a good center fix. Going to be interesting if Emily is still holding her West heading . . .
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5643 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:03 am

I'll tell you something right now...Emily is one fickle and tricky lady. I have much respect for the forecasters at the NHC for having to deal with this. While we sit here and make predictions and analysis they are having to do the same thing...but there forecasts and decisions have major impacts on lives and economic and political impacts. I feel for our friends at the NHC this morning. Good luck to them all.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon Discussion

#5644 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:04 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Looks like 280 degrees since 11pm.


She will have to start on a 320 deg heading like right now to get back on the forecasted track that she was on before I went to bed last night. 300-310 deg heading to get back on the latest forecasted track, lol.
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#5645 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:05 am

That and she has pretty much been moving due west all night.. couple wobbles here and there
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5646 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:05 am

It's almost as if Emily is doing her best to avoid Hispaniola. If I recall, I think it was Charley (or maybe Ivan) that approached Jamaica and literally jumped around it with a jog to the South without making landfall.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5647 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:06 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:Trying to find out some info on what an eddy is. Can't seem to find anything. Can someone enlighten me? Always learning.......



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddy_(fluid_dynamics)
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#5648 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:06 am

I think my path projection of skirting the southernmost part of Hispanola and being a Cuba crosser will come to pass after all.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5649 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:07 am

jlauderdal wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:Trying to find out some info on what an eddy is. Can't seem to find anything. Can someone enlighten me? Always learning.......



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddy_(fluid_dynamics)


Much appreciated!!!
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#5650 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:07 am

So what should we do with the models this morning, I think we should throw them all out until Thursday when she gets north of the Antilles, if she gets there, with her LLC continuing heading west, her MLC WSW...I just don't know what to think this morning. lol
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#5651 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:07 am

290 degrees needed from the last forecasted point to brush the southern tip of Hispaniola, might well miss to the south if this motion carries on.
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#5652 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:08 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 031100
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 42 20110803
105000 1619N 06934W 8428 01560 0078 +190 +068 028015 016 010 000 00
105030 1619N 06932W 8430 01557 0075 +195 +068 031013 014 006 000 00
105100 1619N 06930W 8424 01566 0072 +196 +069 030013 013 008 000 00
105130 1619N 06929W 8430 01559 0073 +195 +069 026012 012 009 000 00
105200 1619N 06927W 8430 01558 0075 +191 +069 027012 012 008 001 00
105230 1619N 06925W 8425 01559 0079 +184 +069 027012 012 008 001 00
105300 1619N 06924W 8430 01555 0077 +187 +069 026012 012 011 000 00
105330 1619N 06922W 8426 01561 0078 +186 +068 023011 011 011 000 00
105400 1619N 06920W 8427 01558 0079 +185 +068 022012 012 005 000 00
105430 1619N 06919W 8430 01554 0077 +184 +068 020012 012 003 000 00
105500 1619N 06917W 8425 01559 0077 +183 +067 022011 011 005 000 00
105530 1619N 06915W 8429 01556 0076 +185 +067 018010 011 005 000 00
105600 1619N 06914W 8428 01555 0078 +183 +067 013008 009 006 000 00
105630 1619N 06912W 8428 01556 0076 +180 +067 007007 008 006 000 00
105700 1619N 06910W 8429 01554 0077 +180 +067 000006 007 005 001 00
105730 1619N 06908W 8425 01558 0075 +180 +067 348006 006 006 000 00
105800 1619N 06907W 8429 01555 0074 +183 +068 336006 006 006 000 00
105830 1619N 06905W 8428 01553 0074 +185 +068 321006 006 005 000 00
105900 1619N 06903W 8428 01555 0074 +185 +068 318005 005 008 000 03
105930 1620N 06902W 8426 01554 0072 +186 +069 311004 004 005 001 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5653 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:09 am

Here are the early 06z cycle models, all expecting Emily to move WNW or NW. Recon tells a different tale:

Image
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#5654 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:10 am

If watches go up for 48 hours out, when should South Florida go into Watch mode? -pretty soon I would suspect. Especially if this were to go over lowland Hispanola, and not weaken significantly, it could rapidly get its act together and end up on the doorstep quickly as a not so weak storm (or low CAT1...if not CAT2 if RI occurs.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5655 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:11 am

Very nice graphic EJ - when was that last center fix?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5656 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:11 am

sunnyday wrote:How large is Emily? If it passes between 50 and 100 miles from the east Fl coast, will they get any effects from it due to its size? Thank you for answering. 8-)

there will be effects thats for sure if that's close...effects could be a nice sunny day(subsidence) with a fresh northerly wind or there could be lashing rains being driven in from the Atlantic..way to early to determine that, lets get the turn made first before trying to figure that out, the turn is the key factor right now then intensity after any land interation, i say any because it could shoot the passage and never touch land which is unlikely
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Re:

#5657 Postby Kory » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:11 am

NDG wrote:So what should we do with the models this morning, I think we should throw them all out until Thursday when she gets north of the Antilles, if she gets there, with her LLC continuing heading west, her MLC WSW...I just don't know what to think this morning. lol

She's already past the Antillies...she's just southeast of Hispaniola. And just as I suspected, they never shifted the track.
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#5658 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:11 am

Also, I pointed out the 70 degree longitude point earlier as significant because if Emily reaches or goes beyond that point before making the NW turn, it will have an increased chance of getting by Hispaniola without as much interaction with that island. She would have a good chance of moving through the Windward Passage at that point and staying at least a minimum TS during that time.

That is something else to think about because the upper level envionment is supposed to get more conducive for Emily to organize and strengthen once she heads for the Bahamas.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5659 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:12 am

Theres the jog north.
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Re:

#5660 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:That and she has pretty much been moving due west all night.. couple wobbles here and there


Yep, certainly not heading 285 at then moment...

Looks to me like motion has been about 275-280 between the last two fixes...still quite westerly though.
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