ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[hipshot]

Now, for her to make landfall at the forecasted forecasted track by the NHC on the Dominican Republic, she will start to head on a 318 deg heading, like right now, surely that is not happening.
If she stays on a 280 deg heading she is in course to come across Jamaica, just a fact.

Yep its going to have to pick up some latitude if its going to hit where the NHC think it is...

It's almost like the NHC is in denial. We keeping reading that she is moving westward at about 280 but I don't see the forecasted track moving much if at all. If the storm is really as weak as
the recon is finding, what is going to get it to make take the sharp right turn needed to hit their
track?

[KWT]

GFDL bombs this before Hispaniola, clearly not going to verify given the recon reports, so yeah its probably a big part of the reason why that model is turning this system NW too soon...

GFDL/HWRF both show pretty condusive conditions in the Bahamas region its got to be said...

[Kory]

Emily is pathetic on recon this morning. Almost an open wave...well this will ensure it continues on its most westerly track.

[Evil Jeremy]

So how much do you all think the 11am cone will shift to the west? Minor or major change?

[Gustywind]

Emily on a weakning trend given SSD T NUMBERS...?

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1145 UTC 16.7N 69.0W T2.5/3.0 EMILY
03/0545 UTC 16.7N 67.4W T3.0/3.0 EMILY

[Kory]

So how much do you all think the 11am cone will shift to the east? Minor or major change?

I don't know how they could keep such a sharp turn to the north. I have to admit, the more I look at it, the track will have to move more south and west.

[KWT]

Yeah its going to continue to 275-285 for a little while yet, models seem to be overdoing the strengthening in the enxt 12hrs which seems to be causing them to go too far east.

[xironman]

I am almost inclined to go with the BAMs since this is still pretty deep in the tropics and is closer to a wave than a storm. Though the Canadian has basically held the same track for a week and is still pretty close.

[Blown Away]

Obvious weaker Emily is going more W that predicted and soon she will feel that weakness slow down a bit and IMO that's when she will begin to intensify. The question I have is Emily may miss the heart of Hispaniola and skirt the W coast of Haiti stay better intact than predicted and reach SW Bahamas where conditions are favorable and intensify more than predicted? Remember the intensity forecasts are based on Emily going over the heart of Hispaniola and it's big mountains.

[xironman]

Recon reports would suggest that Emily barely qualifies as having an LLC. Just a very tiny, weak vortex was all they could find. No low-level flow into the center for the most part. It's very nearly just a sharp wave.

Yep, thats what is probably allowing the system to take a ore westerly track as well..uts strange because the mid levels look real good but the low level has seemingly struggled to get its act together.

Well if it doesn't get it's act together soon, shear is going to increase more in the next day and won't allow the system to get any better organized. They could end up downgrading in the future and this wave might end up in NE Caribbean.

The minimal upper anti-cyclone is retrograding with her

Now


24hrs


72hrs

[hipshot]

Now, for her to make landfall at the forecasted forecasted track by the NHC on the Dominican Republic, she will start to head on a 318 deg heading, like right now, surely that is not happening.
If she stays on a 280 deg heading she is in course to come across Jamaica, just a fact.

Yep its going to have to pick up some latitude if its going to hit where the NHC think it is...

It's almost like the NHC is in denial. We keeping reading that she is moving westward at about 280 but I don't see the forecasted track moving much if at all. If the storm is really as weak as
the recon is finding, what is going to get it to make take the sharp right turn needed to hit their
track?

[Blown Away]

NHC hugging TVCN at 12z shifted W a little, now about 70 miles off WPB.

[wxman57]

Looks pretty much on track to me. I have it inland over eastern Haiti then northwest across Andros Island Friday night then turning northeast well off the Carolinas. NHC may shift their track a tad left closer to mine on the next advisory, but this would still keep all significant wind well east of Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Obvious weaker Emily is going more W that predicted and soon she will feel that weakness slow down a bit and IMO that's when she will begin to intensify. The question I have is Emily may miss the heart of Hispaniola and skirt the W coast of Haiti stay better intact than predicted and reach SW Bahamas where conditions are favorable and intensify more than predicted? Remember the intensity forecasts are based on Emily going over the heart of Hispaniola and it's big mountains.

Yeah, Blown Away, I made a reference to this earlier as well. I think now that the probabilities have now been enhanced for Emily to track more now towards the Windward Passage or even SE Cuba, which would definitely minimize the impacts of Hispaniola on Emily. Should this come to fruition, this indeed may change the perspective in terms of intensity forecast for Emily, especially as she gets to make the turn towards the Bahamas.

[chrisnnavarre]

I am almost inclined to go with the BAMs since this is still pretty deep in the tropics and is closer to a wave than a storm. Though the Canadian has basically held the same track for a week and is still pretty close.

Yep, if it doesn't turn today then 2004 Charlie comes to mind... YIKES...hope the rest of the year doesn't turn out that way for Florida.

[AdamFirst]

Looks pretty much on track to me. I have it inland over eastern Haiti then northwest across Andros Island Friday night then turning northeast well off the Carolinas. NHC may shift their track a tad left closer to mine on the next advisory, but this would still keep all significant wind well east of Florida.

You believe it's started on its west-northwest motion, wxman?

[plasticup]

We have this same conversation every time a storm is meant to turn. People analyze every single frame and conclude that it's not turning and that the NHC is hopeless. Then the storm lifts up and people say "ah, I knew it would!"

Just sayin'

[AdamFirst]

Is it too late to consult the San Juan long range?

Because the blob of thunderstorms doesn't seem to be moving that much.

[KWT]

Looks pretty much on track to me. I have it inland over eastern Haiti then northwest across Andros Island Friday night then turning northeast well off the Carolinas. NHC may shift their track a tad left closer to mine on the next advisory, but this would still keep all significant wind well east of Florida.

Interesting track, esp because the models are trending back westwards again...and Andros Islands really doesn't leave much room for error if the system does decide to keep tracking the way it is. Still sounds good to me in terms of track for now!!

At least as you say pretty much all the sginficant wind is on the eastern side...

[Evil Jeremy]

We have this same conversation every time a storm is meant to turn. People analyze every single frame and conclude that it's not turning and that the NHC is hopeless. Then the storm lifts up and people say "ah, I knew it would!"

Just sayin'

No one here is saying that the NHC is hopeless. This is tough for them to forecast. Emily has been fooling us all.