ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[plasticup]

Or the current very weak vortex could give up the ghost over the next day and it could relocate to south near the deep convection.

Now that is an interesting scenario. That might let Emily strengthen while still staying south of Hispaniola.

[Blown Away]

Emily heading nearly due west looking at the high resolution loops, and getting eeven more exposed.

A combo of shear and probably some injestion of air from Hispaniola not helping at all...

Amazingly the Nogaps track/strength looks good right now...

KWT can you post a high resolution map w/ a circle over the LLC?

[SFLcane]

I'd say its game over...

[KWT]

KWT can you post a high resolution map w/ a circle over the LLC?

I'll go one better, here is the firect link:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Can't miss it...

[ronjon]

Another high res loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

[KWT]

SFLcane, possibly, but if ironically this maybe the best thing for its future chances, this means it probably misses Hispaniola's highest mountions.

Going to struggle for the time being, the LL flow is outrunning the mid level again, probably because its feeling the weakness at mid/upper levels but not yet at the lower levels.

Wouldn't be all that shocking to see this become a TD by the end of the day.

[SFLcane]

SFLcane, possibly, but if ironically this maybe the best thing for its future chances, this means it probably misses Hispaniola's highest mountions.

Going to struggle for the time being, the LL flow is outrunning the mid level again, probably because its feeling the weakness at mid/upper levels but not yet at the lower levels.

Wouldn't be all that shocking to see this become a TD by the end of the day.

Give me something that actually looks like a real tc to track..

[Kory]

Florida might not have anything to worry about even if it does take the western track.

[ronjon]

KWT, looks like some strong westerly shear impacting the system again.

[KWT]

Worth noting if it is going to become a naked system, then that means the lower levels will guide the system and the upper trough digging down will make little difference now...probably gives the system a good chance of staying south of hispaniola...

models will trend west and weaker IMO...some mqay well just decay the whole thing...

[Kory]

KWT, looks like some strong westerly shear impacting the system again.

Yes and some dry air. The shear and dry air doesn't look to let up much as it tracks west.

[KWT]

Yep ronjon, I think Hispaniola can't be helping this system too much either though given some of its inflow is now coming offland.

These naked LLC's can last a while folks, I'd be gvery careful to rule this one out despite obvious weakening trend right now.

to be fair the GFS does show this shear and then shows a zone of lower shear forming pretty soon.

[jhpigott]

Another high res loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Looks like some convection is trying/tried to fire off just east of the LLC.

[Bocadude85]

Another high res loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Well atleast the LLC appears to be heading more wnw....

[ObsessedMiami]

Other than 1 local station, all the other mets are still telling folks to watch this, as the forecasted track is very tricky and the Hurricane center has said that there was not as much confidence in their forecast track as with most other storms.

How irresponsible to not tell folks to watch this storm. Which local station is it?

[xironman]

Did this thing do this a couple of days ago before it was classified? Maybe it will do one of those cyclonic loops around the gyre again.

[KWT]

Another high res loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Well atleast the LLC appears to be heading more wnw....

Really?

Its heading DUE west on the loop I'm watching.

Popcorn convection on the eastern side but thats nowhere near enough to stop weakening...shear really is a problem for this system at the moment...

[Bocadude85]

Another high res loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Well atleast the LLC appears to be heading more wnw....

Really?

Its heading DUE west on the loop I'm watching.

Popcorn convection on the eastern side but thats nowhere near enough to stop weakening...shear really is a problem for this system at the moment...

Yea you are right. Looking at a different loop and it appears to be heading W... if things dont change in the next few hours I am not sure we will have tropical storm Emily anymore though

[SFLcane]

Experimental COAMPS....

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=&hend=120&sid=05L&ddtg=2011080300&scl=1&sec=5&var=hwind-10m&tau=999

[Steve H.]

Well, we can definitely see that there is still a closed circulation. She has just disrobed The shear has been strong across the basin.