ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Yeah will probably be TD Emily pretty soon, its still got a closed circulation though looking at the vis imagery, not strong though.

Just need to watch in case Emily find a zone of less shear, thats what the models have been forecasting anyway...

[cycloneye]

The shear has been strong across the basin.

Not true. Is a topic for discussion at Talking Tropics forum.

[SapphireSea]

I am still fairly certain that the system is decoupled, and if it does not change before dmin tonight, Emily will likely open to a wave or trough. There is a chance that if there is a mlc in the comvection that a new llc forms from it before succumbinh to the same fate. I believe that this has been said before.

[ronjon]

Its got a vigorous LLC so I wouldn't think it'll dissipate especially if she stays over open water. The GFS does forecast shear to relax by tonight southwest of Hispaniola.

[cycloneye]

The Barahona penninsula has tall mountains,but it looks it may bypass it.

[KWT]

Yeah ronjon, even if it does open up the circulation is still pretty strong so its got time on its side, esp if the models are correct in forecasting a reduction of shear in the near future...

[GCANE]

I am still fairly certain that the system is decoupled, and if it does not change before dmin tonight, Emily will likely open to a wave or trough. There is a chance that if there is a mlc in the comvection that a new llc forms from it before succumbinh to the same fate. I believe that this has been said before.

Agreed. WV is showing where the MLC is.

Currently, cloud tops are warming and rain-rate is low.

If it refires, it would be an indication of the development of a new LLC.

[ronjon]

What may play out here and its a theory now is the system degenerates back into a trough over the next 12-24 hrs and then a new LLC "magically" forms in the SE Bahamas or off the NE tip of Cuba. I've seen these transformations happen before, can't quite recall the exact storms, where the energy is transfered to a new location, especially with these weak systems that are interupted by land. Just a thought.

[KWT]

What may play out here and its a theory now is the system degenerates back into a trough over the next 12-24 hrs and then a new LLC "magically" forms in the SE Bahamas or off the NE tip of Cuba. I've seen these transformations happen before, can't quite recall the exact storms, where the energy is transfered to a new location, especially with these weak systems that are interupted by land. Just a thought.

Interesting idea, the only thing that I'd be wary off is the MLC still seems quite strong and that area itself has some weak surface reflection which may make it harder to move the energy.

It can happen, in fact that exact process happened a few days ago during the formative phase of Emily, the convection totally transfered...

[SouthFLTropics]

As it is I'd say that Emily is on life support right now. If she wants to survive crossing Haiti or even Eastern Cuba she better put her clothes back on and soon. Either that or she needs to reform back under the heavy convection to the SE. Either way, as I said last night, the models are most likely going to be bunk until this storm emerges off of the north coast of the Greater Antilles.

SFT

[wxman57]

If that little vortex IS Emily's center then the storm is in big trouble. It could be that it's one of several small centers rotating around a broad low pressure area. Happens all the time with weak, sheared storms. That little vortex may even turn southwest or south over the coming hours.

[Bocadude85]

atleast some convection is developing southwest of the llc

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

It is moving south of due west, to my eyes, so it might be a vortex. Darn good looking vortex!

Edit: Nah, going to take that back. Moving due west after loading a few new frames.

[KWT]

If that little vortex IS Emily's center then the storm is in big trouble. It could be that it's one of several small centers rotating around a broad low pressure area. Happens all the time with weak, sheared storms. That little vortex may even turn southwest or south over the coming hours.

There is a weak vortex thats even less defined then that one on the southern side of the storm...however that IS the circulation recon were tracking, so I'd guess its the main one...

no chance its going over Hispaniola IMO...

Hard 24hrs coming up for Emily...

Ps, if that is the LLC...your forecast is busting along with nearly everyone elses

[Blown Away]

That says SFL landfall, weak system.

[fwbbreeze]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=15&map=latlon

It is moving south of due west, to my eyes, so it might be a vortex. Darn good looking vortex!

Edit: Nah, going to take that back. Moving due west after loading a few new frames.

I thinks thats got to be the main circulation, storms are trying to fire on the east side of it. If that is truely the center Emily is in trouble.

[Javlin]

From pg 63 on 7/31/11

javelin, question on this point:

but 80W25N-80W20N seems reasonable

referring to a trough/weakness? I'm wondering what the reference is cause that's almost exactly my location...

Just using what happened with Don and that steering currents don't change in general that quick ReCurve.I feel it would have to get that high in Lat to really feel a trof and they have been alittle weak of late;just that time of year.Now does it bark on up to Fl,GA or SC or go straight??Also if it develops well before it hits the Carib I might want to go the 25+N @80W but a TD/low grade TS in the Carib I am going 20N.Have to see my forcasting is still in elementry school

This a Don redux the pattern has not changed YET each wave is getting alittle better .

[Blown Away]

That naked vortex is where the NHC places the center, so I'm thinking that has to be our LLC? Convection is building a little and in last few frames almost looks like it's being pulled back into the deeper convection to the SE?

[KWT]

I'm near 100% sure thats the main circulation for now, recon obs do back up a weak circulation to the south in the convection which maybe needs watching if the LLC decides to take a trip over Hispaniola.

It does look bad, but I've seen storms bounce back from this point and become MH before, so its not totally game over.

Wind shear vector sghould change VERY SOON from a westerly to a more southerly type flow...

[KWT]

I suspect the weakening LLC and the increase in shear is going to lead to some very different 12z outcomes, I suspect both west and weaker will be the conclusion to be made.