WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[KWT]

That could be signficant Chacor if that motion continues for any length of time...though plenty of time for the system to wobble back north again.

[whetherornot]

Indeed. Forgive my inexperience, but watching the Taiwan CWB sat loops for the last 3 hours the eye seems to be moving Westwards. If there is a N component it's pretty small.
Is it a just a jog or should Taipei be worried? Our CWB still shows the consensus track.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA going for a more westward track quite far south of Okinawa at the moment. ECMWF 00z run is interesting, takes Muifa a little closer to Okinawa but slows it down a lot which would bring some quite wild weather here for a prolonged period of time.

As I said before every jog counts now

Thanks for the message earlier KWT!

[StormingB81]

Hey Infindoll...I am picturing you little cartoon og the typhoon missing..lol like always

[KWT]

JMA going for a more westward track quite far south of Okinawa at the moment. ECMWF 00z run is interesting, takes Muifa a little closer to Okinawa but slows it down a lot which would bring some quite wild weather here for a prolonged period of time.

As I said before every jog counts now

Thanks for the message earlier KWT!

No problem!

That ECM is a very interesting track and one that would bring alot of severe weather to you!

[Chacor]

JMA going 85 kt at CPA.

WTPQ21 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 24.4N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 110NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 24.7N 128.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 051200UTC 25.4N 126.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 061200UTC 27.3N 123.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Chacor]

Posted this in the obs thread, but worth repeating here:
SPECI RODN 031331Z AUTO 02026G34KT 9999 -RA SCT022 SCT030 BKN037 29/25 A2946 RMK AO2 PK WND 04034/1329 RAB1303E1315B1331 CIG 021 RWY23 SLP975

Pressure falling at Kadena, down to 997.5 hPa. Winds 020° 26kt gusts 34 kt.

[Infdidoll]

Hey Infindoll...I am picturing you little cartoon og the typhoon missing..lol like always

You mean this one?



Haha! Yep. Taiwan typhoon magnet - ACTIVATE!

Actually, I'll be upset if it doesn't hit. We already lugged all this stuff in from outside, we're stocked on food, water, and beer. Most people here live in concrete buildings. Bad situation when typhoons hit Taiwan because of the mountains, landslides and flooding that goes on.

[dexterlabio]

The typhoon will make its presence felt over Okinawa even if Muifa will stay bit south. Well are you guys feeling some wind from the typhoon already?

[StormingB81]

I will too and James came all the way out here...It cant be for nothing!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey Infindoll...I am picturing you little cartoon og the typhoon missing..lol like always

You mean this one?



Haha! Yep. Taiwan typhoon magnet - ACTIVATE!

Actually, I'll be upset if it doesn't hit. We already lugged all this stuff in from outside, we're stocked on food, water, and beer. Most people here live in concrete buildings. Bad situation when typhoons hit Taiwan because of the mountains, landslides and flooding that goes on.

That map is totally unrealistic! It seems to suggest that somehow a typhoon might come close to Hong Kong!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Something I always try to stress is the possibility of weak yet quick rain shrouded tornadoes in some of the outer rain bands of strong systems as shown in the radar above. Once you get to the core of the system tornadoes are usually over whelmed by the +100kts of the system itself but the rain bands do hold surprises.

If someone has already made mention of that I apologize for the double post...

[StormingB81]

Winds right now are about 25-30 mph...looks like the last couple of hours a hint of WNW..maybe trying to make a little turn

[Infdidoll]

The typhoon will make its presence felt over Okinawa even if Muifa will stay bit south. Well are you guys feeling some wind from the typhoon already?

21.9 mph sustained, 33.4 mph last recorded gust: http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

We have some brutal windy days in the winter from north winds and they are sometimes worse than this. We've had some good gusts, but nothing approaching tropical storm or typhoon strength just yet.

[Infdidoll]

That map is totally unrealistic! It seems to suggest that somehow a typhoon might come close to Hong Kong!

Haha! No kidding, right? When is the last time you guys DID see a direct hit there? You should really think about moving to Aparri!

[Typhoon Hunter]

I will too and James came all the way out here...It cant be for nothing!

Haha yes! I'm so used to typhoons veering, falling apart and pulling U-turns on me I never get my expectations up for wild conditions until the coconuts start flying! I think this will be my 21st solid tropical cyclone and it's only August 3rd so if she veers plenty more season to come!

But yes if a typhoon is to hit anywhere then Okinawa is the best place, far less chance of carnage and destruction compared to Philippines, Taiwan, China or Mainland Japan!

[StormingB81]

Well I am going to bed...lord knows I wont be sleeping much tomorow night....good night all

[KWT]

The typhoon will make its presence felt over Okinawa even if Muifa will stay bit south. Well are you guys feeling some wind from the typhoon already?

Yep and plus its a pretty large storm so even if it does end up tracking to the south of Okinawa there will still be quite alot of wind for them.

[Infdidoll]

Something I always try to stress is the possibility of weak yet quick rain shrouded tornadoes in some of the outer rain bands of strong systems as shown in the radar above. Once you get to the core of the system tornadoes are usually over whelmed by the +100kts of the system itself but the rain bands do hold surprises.

If someone has already made mention of that I apologize for the double post...

Point taken. I have only seen one rainband come creeping over us this afternoon. It was mostly sunny today. As the day wears on tomorrow, I'm sure we're going to see some nastier weather as the outer edge of the storm creeps over us. The husband is saying he hopes everything goes as planned. If they go to TCOR 1, he doesn't have to go in to work tomorrow.

[JTE50]

link to hourly obs from Kadena presently 997 NNE at 24mph http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RODN.html

A storm chaser tip: If you face directly in the wind & point your right arm straight from your side, ie 90 degrees, your hand points to the eye.