ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Blown Away, yeah unless it moves NW from here on as you say those models are going to bust in both strength and track...

[Kory]

Some put some clothes on Emily. But in all seriousness, all of the models won't verify in the short term since they are expecting a current movement of NW. Sure will be interesting if the more storms fire off over the LLC, which is moving westward. Or if another LLC forms with the MLC which is slowly creeping along. Depending on where it develops could change the game completely.

[Hylian Auree]

Tbh it looks like Emily is pulling a Tomas

[tolakram]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Looking at MIMIC-TPW Emily never moved NW, has always moved west, and the main signature of circulation is now due south of Hispaniola. Interesting.

[westwind]

It looks like the LLC is moving due west being pulled south of the forecast track by the main area of covection.
Looks pretty weak but it could get going again if the convection just east of the LLC picks up.

Strange system very interesting trying to work out what its going to do next!

[Blown Away]

She is wrapping convection to the NE frame by frame.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like maybe some convection trying to wrap/develop north of the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...STILL
EXPECTED TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 69.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[KWT]

She is wrapping convection to the NE frame by frame.

Yeah looks like thats the case, but its still what I'd call popcorn convection...its the type that will prevent it from opening up but won't prevent some weakening.

280 degrees motion looks abit north to me, I'd go with 275 based on the loops I'mn looking at...I suppose long term motion probably is close to 280 still though...

[Kory]

She is wrapping convection to the NE frame by frame.

While it does look like that, I believe its going to have trouble wrapping it completely around since the shear is coming in from the South and Southwest. Plus the LLC is racing west while the convection is staying stationary.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...STILL
EXPECTED TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 69.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN IN EASTERN CUBA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DEPARTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. THE LAST
WINDS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHILE EXITING THE
CYCLONE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHEAR PATTERN NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS EMILY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.7N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.5N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 26.6N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 30.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 34.1N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[ozonepete]

Some put some clothes on Emily. But in all seriousness, all of the models won't verify in the short term since they are expecting a current movement of NW. Sure will be interesting if the more storms fire off over the LLC, which is moving westward. Or if another LLC forms with the MLC which is slowly creeping along. Depending on where it develops could change the game completely.

Yeah. I'd give this a less than 50-50 chance now, but with one big opt-out. Since this sytem has done this SO many times before, I would not be surprised if either:

1. the LLC goes over Haiti and the MLC follows behind, then they merge again north of eastern Cuba.
or
2. the LLC dissipates and the MLC goes over DR and then drills down a new LLC north of Hispaniola or southern Bahamas.

Just because there is nothing this storm seems to be incapable of doing!

[Evil Jeremy]

Surprised they kept the intensity at 50mph. Also, SE FL is fully inside the cone now with another westward shift. And once again, the NHC is expecting Emily to start moving WNW... right now.

[StormClouds63]

Think back to Friday and Saturday ... this yet-to-be-named system had great size and the classic "look" of a developing system on its way to perhaps becoming a major hurricane ... now, it's a sheared swirl with shrinking convection. Hopefully no torrential rains or flooding for Hispanola.

[tolakram]

Surprised they kept the intensity at 50mph. Also, SE FL is fully inside the cone now with another westward shift. And once again, the NHC is expecting Emily to start moving WNW... right now.

Yea, I find that a bit disconcerting. I know they desire continuity in the forecast but a sharp right turn is needed for that to verify and I just can't imagine it.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[micktooth]

Why is it that Atlantic storms often have a harder time developing compared to those in the EPAC or WPAC?

[ConvergenceZone]

In all honesty, this will be the first time I've wanted a storm to just die. I can't keep up with all the fluctuations and her bipolar nature. I thought Don was bad...

Please Emily, decouple like a good girl and save me the pain of trying to figure out what's going on with you and what you're going to be doing next.

Yea, I' the same way, just die already Emily, enuff is enuff....

[StormClouds63]

Reminds me a little bit of Earl (2004), Daniel (2006), and Debby (2000) in that the system has never really organized and could easily fall apart over land or just dissipate due to shear.

[GCANE]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Looking at MIMIC-TPW Emily never moved NW, has always moved west, and the main signature of circulation is now due south of Hispaniola. Interesting.

Spot on. Keep an eye on this.

[Kory]

Come on Avila! Seriously, 50 mph? Maybe convection induced winds. Should be a depression with the track pointing west in short term.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.