ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Javlin]

Now if this naked swirl never dies and continues west and into the GOM, which is by no means out of the realm of possibility, and then would traverse up the west coast of florida, it could be a major problem for the Gulf Coast. I am not going by data so much, but by a gut feeling it just is not going to turn as sharp or quickly as they exepected, maybe because to me the center seems to be unstable and keeps relocating southwest

Not out of the realm in fact that is pretty much what would be Don did,it did not develop till the YUC Straits as per WX57 suggested would happen.But is the GOM stll somewhat hostile it looks it some ATTM.

[mf_dolphin]

Personally I think this is a facinating storm albeit frustrating. I wonder if there's a possibility that the MLC could get pulled into the weakness north while the LLS goes west. Maybe we could have twins

[Bocadude85]

Looks like a little convection is trying to fire over the center, but can't quite do it yet. Also notice a band forming to the E and NE of the center. I'm thinking as the old blob of convection fades SE and dies, we will see a new form over the center here shortly. (This is just my opinion not a professional forecast).

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

You maybe right you can see the clouds around the LLC thickening.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html
Looking at MIMIC-TPW Emily never moved NW, has always moved west, and the main signature of circulation is now due south of Hispaniola. Interesting.

Spot on. Keep an eye on this.

I've posted that quite a few times noting it's westward movement. Perhaps we'll end up with a track like the CLP model has been showing.

[AdamFirst]

Does anyone have a link to those rapid fire satellite images that I believe are from NASA?

This is turning into a minute by minute situation.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I actually think, based on the last few frames of the floater, that the LLC is starting to look better. A defined swirl with convection trying to build back in around it, while the blob to the SW starts to dissipate.

[FireRat]

Looking at that map

Agreed that it's just not turning. However the NHC is pretty good at track forecasting. IMO if Emily passes south of Haiti and keeps heading west by tomorrow, then the forecast is at risk of busting and then we'd consider the more radical GOM idea. If the Carolinas don't get it by the 7th-9th, then the North Gulf Coast dould get it on the same dates.

I'm sticking to my guns of what I predicted yesterday for a Carolina impact by the 7th-9th after dealing Haiti a serious flood impact on the 4th...tomorrow. We'll see, this storm's been a real hair yanker.

That blob growing on its west circulation doesn't impress me yet, but if it keeps growing and balls out over the naked spin by the time it's 5 PM then I'd be watching it. Either way, the trailing mid scale blob is what could unleash the mean rains over Haiti at this point.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TexasF6]

Its STILL moving west, even WSW...IMO...the NHC did not say this...just me lookin at satpics and that nifty graphic So where is this turn NW? A weak storm is moving westward...and GOM will be its graveyard unless it turns....IMO

[SouthDadeFish]

Does anyone have a link to those rapid fire satellite images that I believe are from NASA?

This is turning into a minute by minute situation.

Here you go:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Also here's a site with links to all kinds of satellite imagery, radars, computer models, etc.:

http://www.canefever.com/#!links

[Sanibel]

Apparently the negative conditions that hampered Don are still in place. Weird season because the Caribbean usually becomes favorable about this time of year. It could change once it clears the islands, but NHC doesn't think so.

Heavy rain dragged behind it and into Puerto Rico.

[KWT]

A nice small convective burst to the east of the center, at the very least if that keeps happening it should help to keep the circulation closed.

General motion still a hair north of west but we'll have to see, as i said 290 needed from the NHC advisory point for landfall on DR...anything less and it'll scoot under and onto Haiti.

[Bobo2000]

Still heading west, and FAST. If Emily doesn't turn, we got a North GOM problem.

[GCANE]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html
Looking at MIMIC-TPW Emily never moved NW, has always moved west, and the main signature of circulation is now due south of Hispaniola. Interesting.

Spot on. Keep an eye on this.

I've posted that quite a few times noting it's westward movement. Perhaps we'll end up with a track like the CLP model has been showing.

A lot of latent heat was released this morning from the long duration hot-tower.

It has to go somewhere.

[SouthFloridawx]

At lease the center will not be hard to spot.

[SouthDadeFish]

Okay for everyone wondering if this will keep going west into the GOM or Yucatan, this is why I'm pretty sure it won't. I'm not a professional met, but I am a met undergrad. Take a look at the 700-850mb steering flow. This is the steering flow for weak tropical systems such as Emily.


Notice the weakness between the two ridges currently over the SE Bahamas. Emily will very quickly begin to feel this weakness as the low level flow will begin to pull it in that direction. Emily is already approaching the SW periphery of the subtropical ridge to her NE and should soon begin to turn more towards the WNW to NW. Storms just don't pass through a weakness like that. Also notice how the ridge to NW is blocking the Gulf States at this time. Emily would instead get pushed into Central America, not the Gulf. My best forecast would have Emily start to turn to the WNW in the next 6 hours and cross of Haiti and possibly even SE Cuba. The NHC forecast cone is still very reasonable at this time.

Remember, this is not a professional forecast, but rather simply mine.

[lebron23]

I havent seen a decent storm heading toward the US since Ike...... almost 3 years ago.

[maxx9512]

Good convection building around the llc. Is this enough to save it?


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[Sanibel]

I think one picture tells the whole story here. Dry air!:

[KWT]

I don't know SDF, the upper trough is starting to withdraw and this system is pretty weak at the moment, I've seen such systems trundle by much bigger weaknesses then the one open right now.

If it picks up any decent convection it'll shoot 285-290 again into Hispaniola, but we'll have to watch and see.

Still your right, its hard to imagine the system trundling much further due west given the synoptics aloft!

PS, think your track is going to be close to the mark as well...

[psyclone]

I havent seen a decent storm heading toward the US since Ike...... almost 3 years ago.

it's been a nice break. but i bet it ends this year.