Time for some NHC bashing from me

[OtherHD]

It's something I don't do often, but with the events surrounding "TD"9 and now the CV wave, I have to say something...

WHY does the NHC classify "TD"9 based on ONE ship report, which in all likelihood was FAULTY, but REFUSES to do anything with the CV wave? "TD"9 had no closed circulation based on QuikSCAT...the CV wave does, and a tight circulation at that, which is something I hardly ever see with newly-emerged waves. Also, UNCONTAMINATED tropical storm force winds also based on QuikSCAT...not so with "TD"9. The NHC's excuse is lack of convection. UHHHHHH "TD"9 was LOSING convection when it was classified and was almost to the point where all that was left were low clouds...typical of MLCs. So the CV wave doesn't have deep reds...at least it has been consistent...not dying like "TD"9 was. And don't give me the "it's too far away from land and not a concern so they will wait" excuse. A TD is a TD, and I am 99% convinced that this IS a TD (if not more) and that "TD"9 was just a typical run-of-the-mill MLC.

Agree, disagree???

[zoeyann]

I agree with you. There are specific classifications for certain events, and when you deal with these storms you are dealing with lives. I am an amatuer weather hobbiest, but personally I feel like if you make exceptions and don't abide by the standards laid out then people loose trust. Without that trust people won't listen are won't believe the forecast and then make poor decisions. BUT I tend to believe that science should be handled very literally.

[obxhurricane]

Being a tropical forecaster myself I try not to bash the so called experts at NHC.

I do agree the current system near the Cape Verdes should be classified at this time. However, I assume since they have been burned more than once this season that they will wait until the system maintains deep convection near the center before they classify it a depression or a storm. Also of note is the fact that the UK model doesn't pick up on this system and the GFS is less robust in recent runs. But hey, the models have been worthless all season. :?


It should be interesting to see what happens at 11PM...

[chadtm80]

Being a tropical forecaster myself I tend to try not to bash the so called experts at NHC.

Agree 110% with you on that one obx They are the experts.. If its maintained or increased by tommorow then I am sure they will call it.. Guess they just found no real reason to do so yet..

BTW, WELCOME TO STORM2k!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lindaloo]

Well if they have been burned more than once, then that is the NHC's problem. They are paid to give us accurate forecasts and not to withhold info so they will not be burned. That just does not make sense to me.

Maybe part of the problem is that this new system is far away from land. TD 9 was near land.

[JetMaxx]

Lyle, the difference is because TD 9 was in the Caribbean...nearing Hispanola -- where lives are threatened...

92L (IMO TD 10 and future intense hurricane Fabian) is thousands of miles from any land mass OF IMPORTANCE to NHC and NOAA.

It's not the satellite presentation or ship reports that IMO matters to NHC forecaster...it's the threat level. At the current juncture, TD 10 is much lower than TD 9 was.

I GUARANTEE you if this Cape Verde system were in the GOM, Caribbean Sea, or Bahamas...it would be a TD; and possibly already TS Fabian (based on a 1007 mb ship report and 49 mph peak gust reported from Paira, Cape Verde Islands.

Just like when buying a new home...the key word for NHC forecasters is location, location, location

[obxhurricane]

chadtm80 : Thank you for the warm welcome. I'm very happy that I have found this place.

Well if they have been burned more than once, then that is the NHC's problem. They are paid to give us accurate forecasts and not to withhold info so they will not be burned. That just does not make sense to me.

I see your point Linda, and indeed it is their problem. The fact is though, they have been burned a few times this season. No one is perfect, and weather forecasting of any kind is an imperfect science.

This system is many miles from anywhere(except the Cape Verdes of course) and is possibly destined to be nothing more than a threat to fish and shipping lanes. I think we can wait another 12 to 24 hours before classifing this system. Let's see if it is actually going to maintain itself.

[wxman57]

There's a big difference between questionable TD 9 and what I agree is now TD 10. TD 9 was developing RAPIDLY and threatening the islands. The NHC could not wait for 24 hours to see if TD 9 would really spin up, as it would be making landfall by then. They upgraded TD 9 and it promptly fell apart. I can't fault them too much on that upgrade, since the threat to the islands appeared real at the time. Hindsight is 20/20 on TD 9.

But way out there in the far eastern Atlantic is an obvious depression but it's in an area where systems typically may fall apart after a short time. It is basically in the middle of nowhere, with the exception of producing a few clouds in the southern Cape Verde Islands. There's no immediate threat, so no need to hurry up and name it just so us hurricane enthusiasts get our storm going. Instead, the NHC will wait to confirm that the convection lasts for 24+ hours this time. They have nothing at all to gain by upgrading it today. Can't fault them on that, either, even though we all know it is now clearly a TD.

[rainstorm]

maybe they just dont want to classify something and see it fall apart hours later. they probably want to see evidence will continue to develop

[OtherHD]

They classified "TD"9 at the drop of a hat...

[mf_dolphin]

TD 9 posed a potential threat to land in the short term. I agree that they probably shouldn't have classified it but I think they we're taking the path of least sorrow....

[alicia-w]

So what are the officia criteria for determining the status of a TD? It's a government organization, so I can feel assured that there is a quagmire of bureaucracy requiring certain milestones be met before they do whatever. So, with that in mind, are they withholding classifying this as a storm because it's so far away? Someone has to know....

[wxman57]

They classified "TD"9 at the drop of a hat...

TD 9 was developing very quickly AND was an immediate threat to land. They had to act quickly. TD 10 isn't a threat to anyone - at least for 5-6 days. Nothing at all is to be gained by upgrading the depression in the eastern Atlantic to TD 10 any time soon.