ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jonj2040]

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[mutley]

18z Tropical Models.



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That's a heck of a margin of error between the models!

Indeed. Not very comforting at this point.

[KWT]

I am always wary of a storm with this vigorous of a LLC. If it is able to clear the islands and hits the Gulf Stream and right environment it could possibly blow up pretty quick. The next 24 hours should be very interesting.

SFT

Yeah the LLC seems to be quite stubborn with this system, just need to see whether conditions improve before it treks over too much land.

tolakram, it is quite tricky isn't it!

Ah well convective burst poofing away now, and long term motion is indeed about 270-275...

[jonj2040]

A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 18:20:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°47'N 70°24'W (16.7833N 70.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 122 miles (196 km) to the SSW (196°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,465m (4,806ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 41kts (From the SE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NW (325°) from the flight level center

[Blown Away]

12z GFDL and HWRF out - same track for GFDL and slightly further east on HWRF off the FL east coast then the 06z run. Here's the 06z NOAA HWRF 3 kn run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080306-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Is this right, shows landfall in Miami?

[Clint_TX]

Wind shear may be decreasing now. I think it'll clip western Haiti then go across more of eastern Cuba. May track a little west of Andros. Don't see anything to suggest eastern Gulf.

I see that...and I seems that today's antics might have laid the foundation for a future US landfall IMO

[Weatherboy1]

Seems like it'll be kind of hard for the NHC to avoid shifting the "line of destruction" (LOL) and "cone of destruction" closer toward Florida here. That oughta get the newscasters excited come evening news time.

[KWT]

Its even worse mutley when you consider that the current motion is probably between 275-280 and showing no real signs of lifting out...

[Clint_TX]

Wind shear may be decreasing now. I think it'll clip western Haiti then go across more of eastern Cuba. May track a little west of Andros. Don't see anything to suggest eastern Gulf.

I see that...and I seems that today's antics might have laid the foundation for a future US landfall IMO

And it looks like the Mid Level Circ is fading fast...it's going to have a chance to stack

[Tropics Guy]

Emily seems to be hanging on, new convection & feeder bands on the NE & East side of her LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

TG

[SunnyThoughts]

Aric pointed out yesterday, after looking at each package previously, when the bam's started shifting west, it seems the other models tended to do so as well. They sure have trended west as per that graphic above.

[KWT]

Wind shear may be decreasing now. I think it'll clip western Haiti then go across more of eastern Cuba. May track a little west of Andros. Don't see anything to suggest eastern Gulf.

I see that...and I seems that today's antics might have laid the foundation for a future US landfall IMO

Its certainly hasn't hurt its chances of a US landfall...and unlike wxman57 I'm not convinced you can totally rule out a far E.Gulf risk, it seesm to still be tracking close to due west.

About to hit the southerly shear, perhaps why the latest convection has poofed in the last hour?

[Shuriken]

Best place to follow the action without waiting for a middleman to tell you what you're seeing: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031900
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 16 20110803
185030 1548N 06944W 8440 01550 0096 +162 +075 217018 019 033 002 00
185100 1548N 06946W 8433 01556 0089 +175 +074 218020 020 029 000 00
185130 1548N 06948W 8436 01552 0090 +174 +076 217020 020 029 001 00
185200 1549N 06949W 8437 01553 0087 +177 +078 216020 020 031 000 00
185230 1549N 06951W 8437 01550 0084 +179 +080 213019 019 032 003 00
185300 1549N 06952W 8435 01553 0085 +178 +081 212019 019 032 004 00
185330 1549N 06954W 8437 01550 0083 +179 +081 213020 021 033 001 00
185400 1549N 06956W 8436 01554 0087 +175 +080 217017 019 032 001 00
185430 1549N 06957W 8439 01550 0084 +179 +079 211017 019 031 002 00
185500 1549N 06959W 8436 01554 0086 +175 +079 209020 022 028 002 00
185530 1549N 07000W 8433 01556 0081 +182 +079 216020 021 022 001 00
185600 1549N 07002W 8421 01567 0083 +179 +078 213018 020 024 003 00
185630 1549N 07004W 8443 01545 0084 +179 +078 212018 019 023 000 00
185700 1549N 07005W 8440 01550 0085 +179 +078 222017 017 023 000 03
185730 1549N 07007W 8438 01550 0086 +175 +078 223017 018 021 001 00
185800 1549N 07008W 8434 01552 0086 +174 +078 220016 016 022 000 00
185830 1549N 07010W 8438 01549 0086 +170 +078 225016 016 023 000 00
185900 1549N 07012W 8434 01553 0084 +173 +078 230015 015 023 000 00
185930 1549N 07013W 8436 01550 0085 +172 +077 228015 015 023 000 00
190000 1549N 07015W 8438 01548 0085 +170 +077 231015 015 021 000 00
$$
;

[JPmia]

LOL this has to be the most tricky storm I've seen in quite a long time.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its going to pass yet another forecast point

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's what I'm seeing. Frame from the latest hi speed visible.



LLC exposed again, and inflow to the LLC has pretty much stopped ... at least the moisture coming in has. LLC might be relocating NE, which would in fact put Emily back on forecast points. Just not sure, but this is why I thought the LLC was opening up. It looks horrible.

[mutley]

Its even worse mutley when you consider that the current motion is probably between 275-280 and showing no real signs of lifting out...

Yes, Emily has been stubbornly denying the turn all day. I just hope we don't see much intensification now.

[KWT]

looks like its going to pass yet another forecast point

I don't think I've seen a storm so consistantly miss its forecast points since the K hurricane that shall not be named!

It really is struggling to pick up any latitude, I don't think many of us would have thought E.Cuba would be a probable destination for this system 5 days ago...

[cpdaman]

i think there is a growing chance this dies over cuba tommorrow nite.

due to cuba's shape v. Longitude /latitude as this weakens over cuba (at least eastern sections) assuming it doesn't thread the needle perfectly....the weakening may continue to keep it from moving as much poleward as forecast...(esp after hitting SE cuba) . and slowly as it die as it moves wnw up cuba eastern and north central sides . i think it will be a tremendous waiting game for it to come off cuba once it enters SE cuba tommorrow

however i think there is also a chance that later tonite the mountains jutting out of SW hispanola do some more damage to the LLC and send it spinning further West again ...almost parralleling off the west coast of cuba for a while!