Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Good morning. PR is recieving plenty of rain and there are flood reports from parts of the island.I will keep you informed.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

PRZ001>011-032145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0009.110803T1000Z-110804T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...LAJAS
537 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...CENTRAL INTERIOR...EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ
AND VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* OUTER RAINBANDS OF EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TODAY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THESE RAINBANDS WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING EMILY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. THESE RAINBANDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS...RIVERS AND URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING. LESSER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

*

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks to keep us informed. Be safe and dry Luis.

[Gustywind]

Latest news concerning Martinica after Emily...

A storm that hurts
L.H. France-Antilles Martinique03.08.2011
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 121191.php


Emily was to reach Guadeloupe and Dominica, but the storm changed its path in the night of Monday to Tuesday. The morning yesterday, Martinique was red vigilance. The heavy rains which are slaughtered on the island caused damage. Some are still visible today.

Traffic was restored on the main roads this morning. Only a few roads still encounter difficulties due to scree on the pavement. In Lorrain, however RD 22 is still blocked by a talus and a tree fell on the pavement. In the day, most of the roads themselves are emptied gradually rain, including the highway impassable for several hours yesterday. However, neighbourhoods still retain traces of the passage of Emily. The centre and South are the most affected areas by accumulations of rain: up to 17 0 mm per hour in some places, namely 17 0 litres per square metre.

Almost all of the firefighters were mobilized to clear congested roads, pruning trees collapsed on the pavement... in all 14 0 interventions recorded Prefecture, mainly Fort-de-France (see pages 4 and 5). It is the municipality which has experienced the most significant damage: downtown Trénelle, Volga and Bô Kannal, water and mud flooded houses. The gull and Morne calabash district, already affected by a landslide last may, the lands again collapsed. 40 Homes were evacuated, most as a preventive measure, the Morne-calabash district, stated yesterday evening the Prefecture. But three were directly hit by Emily. Mud, mounted water, also a rock even came to collapse in a salon in the coves-. Some families have lost everything.

Always moist soils

A gull, a reconnaissance helicopter with the army, a specialist in the Office of mining and geological research and a geotechnical of the city of Fort-de-France should have a better understanding of the phenomenon.

The most affected municipalities should make an application for declaration of a State of natural disaster in the next few days. Analyzed by weather France and the Office of geological and mining research, these requests are then likely, receive a positive outcome of the State.

The weather should not be back until Thursday or Friday, but it there was no new lows announced the immediate did weather France, yesterday evening. The services of the General Council highlighted, them that landslides could still intervene within 48 hours, as the soil moisture. It must therefore be vigilant.

-Electricity, telephone

5,000 customers of EDF are remained private electricity much of Tuesday. Almost all of the network was restored yesterday, but it may remain damage here and there. EDF remains available to the 0810.333.972.

700 persons were also deprived of fixed telephone yesterday, mainly diamond. Subscribers should be restored in the day.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion from CrownWeather, thanks Rob
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Tropical Storm Emily Is Heading For Hispaniola; Tropical Storm Warnings Are In Effect For Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Southeast Bahamas & The Turks & Caicos IslandsRob Lightbown on August 3, 2011, 6:02 am


Tropical Storm Emily:
The latest information from reconnaissance aircraft show that Emily is a moderately strong tropical storm this morning with 50 mph winds. Analysis of the environmental conditions using the products from CIMSS show that there is about 15 knots of northwest wind shear affecting Emily. Also, reconnaissance aircraft found that the center of Emily was located near the western edge of the deepest convection. This type of wind shear is expected to continue right up to landfall in Hispaniola, which is expected to occur this evening; therefore, I only expect slight strengthening, if that, today. It should be pointed out that once Emily moves back over water in the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday afternoon, the environmental conditions there are more favorable and I think that is when we will see strengthening of this storm. With that said, the biggest question that needs to be answered is how much of an impact will the very mountainous terrain of Hispaniola will have on Emily. Right now, given that it is not a very strong storm at all, I think the impacts will be minimal and the storm will be able to reorganize and intensify in the Bahamas.

Emily is tracking somewhere between west and west-northwest at a forward speed of 14 mph. Emily is expected to turn to the northwest into a weakness in the ridge of high pressure; this northwest turn will cause the storm to track across Hispaniola from this evening into Thursday morning. Emily is then forecast to track across the southeastern Bahamas from Thursday afternoon into Friday. After that, the forecast track becomes more difficult as there continues to be some spread in the track model guidance which runs the gamut from a track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (BAMD & BAMS) to a track well east of Florida and just along the eastern part of the Bahamas (GFS operational & GFS ensemble models). As for some of the other track model guidance members, this is what they are forecasting:

The HWRF model forecasts a very close shave to eastern Florida on Friday and Saturday and then forecasts a track across southeastern North Carolina on Sunday. The GFDL model actually is very close to the current National Hurricane Center track forecast. The UKMET model forecasts a track across the Florida Keys on Friday evening and then a track right up the west coast of Florida on Saturday. The European model forecasts a track well east of Florida and spares the US Southeast coast.

Ok, here are my thoughts: I am forecasting that Emily will track across Hispaniola from this evening into Thursday morning. It is expected to remain weak and without a well developed core, so that it is expected to strengthen fairly quickly once it gets into the Bahamas later Thursday into Friday and I do think that Emily will attain hurricane strength probably during Friday or Friday night. Now, the big question is how close will Emily come to the US Southeast coast?? Right now, I do not think that Emily will make landfall on the US Southeast coast, but it will be close with the storm probably tracking between 60 and 120 miles offshore of both Florida’s east coast and southeastern North Carolina.

Now, one thing to chew on is that the GFS and the European model have been constantly under forecasting the strength of the ridge of high pressure and forecasting too strong of a trough of low pressure. This will be something to really keep an eye on over the next few days as it is possible (although I am not forecasting this right now) that the ridge of high pressure could be stronger than what is being forecast now and that the weakness in the ridge would be filled in much quicker than forecast. This in turn could cause Emily to be pushed back towards the Southeast US Coast.

A major flood threat is still forecast for the Dominican Republic and Haiti where Emily is forecast to track across this region from later today through tonight. This is pretty serious considering there are still a lot of people displaced by last year’s earthquake.

Everyone across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should prepare today for tropical storm conditions which are expected from Thursday into Thursday night. Those of you in the northwest Bahamas may want to prepare for hurricane conditions as Emily could be near or at hurricane strength when it tracks across the northwestern Bahamas on Friday afternoon and Friday night.

Now, everyone along the US Southeast coast, especially our friends on Florida’s east coast and across southeastern and eastern North Carolina need to monitor the progress and forecast for Emily. At the very least, high surf and rip currents are likely across the entire US Southeast coast from Friday through this weekend and into early next week. It is best to stay out of the water this weekend to avoid drowning in a rip current.

For a full listing of all of the Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings that are currently in effect, go to our Tropical Storm Emily page at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=6546 .

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Wednesday morning.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
738 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

PRC007-009-019-021-035-041-043-045-051-105-135-137-031730-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0033.110803T1138Z-110803T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-BAYAMON PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-COMERIO PR-
NARANJITO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-AIBONITO PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
738 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
AGUAS BUENAS... AIBONITO...
BARRANQUITAS...BAYAMON...CAYEY...
CIDRA...COAMO...COMERIO...DORADO...
NARANJITO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA
MUNICIPALITIES IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 130 PM AST

* AT 730 AM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ALONG THE RIO DE LA
PLATA AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6624 1847 6621 1824 6617 1810 6611
1809 6613 1814 6632 1827 6625 1848 6628
1849 6628 1849 6625

$$

AAS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

PRC025-029-031-063-077-085-087-103-119-127-129-139-031715-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0032.110803T1117Z-110803T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CANOVANAS PR-GURABO PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-
SAN JUAN PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE
PR-LOIZA PR-
717 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN...
CAGUAS...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CAYEY...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...LOIZA...
NAGUABO...RIO GRANDE...SAN JUAN...SAN LORENZO...
AND TRUJILLO ALTO MUNICIPALITIES

* UNTIL 100 PM AST

* AT 702 AM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA BASIN. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE DE LOIZA AND ITS TRIBUTARIES INCLUDING...BUT NOT LIMITED
TO...RIOS GURABO...CAYAGUAS AND TURABO.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6587 1834 6588 1824 6581 1815 6589
1810 6604 1812 6606 1813 6607 1819 6607
1845 6599

$$

AAS/OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[msbee]

I woke up this rain and dark cloudy skies. I thought Emily would be well past us and we would have sunny skies.
I'm not complaining though...We certainly escaped serious problems with Emily...only some minor flooding when the squalls came in.

I was sorry to read of the damage and problems in Martinique, Gusty. And I hope PR does not have too much of a problem with flooding, Luis.

and of course like everyone else I am watching Hispaniola and hope Emily doesn't cause too many problems for DR and especially Haiti.

Have a safe day everyone

Barbara

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity between Africa and the Lesser Antilles...

Looks like decent twaves are maybe going to take off during the next couple of days. A suspect area is near the 11N 32W with a 1012 low and thus, given my untrained eyes... seems that there's other suspicious twaves more east on Africa. Let's be vigilant as usual. Wait and see taking a little breath after Emily trip.

Here is the twave i've mentionned

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
19N31W ALONG 16N33W TO 12N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
WELL DEFINED THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS. HOWEVER...IT IS ILL DEFINED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE. THE NEAR STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW LONGER ATTACHED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND IS CENTERED NEAR 11N32W.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

$$
PAW

[Gustywind]

I woke up this rain and dark cloudy skies. I thought Emily would be well past us and we would have sunny skies.
I'm not complaining though...We certainly escaped serious problems with Emily...only some minor flooding when the squalls came in.

I was sorry to read of the damage and problems in Martinique, Gusty. And I hope PR does not have too much of a problem with flooding, Luis.

and of course like everyone else I am watching Hispaniola and hope Emily doesn't cause too many problems for DR and especially Haiti.

Have a safe day everyone

Barbara

Glad to hear you Barbara. Yeah that's sad for Martinica . Hopefully things are less tragic in Guadeloupe, Northern Leewards and maybe PR (Luis will keep us informed). Let's pray for DR and Haiti, keeping our fingers crossed. Be safe and dry all islanders of the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

You can see in this loop of precipitation,how much rain is and has fallen since midnight.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Gustywind]

You can see in this loop of precipitation,how much rain is and has fallen since midnight.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Thanks, oh yeah that's very nice amounts of water spreading... Be safe and dry Luis.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-103-119-031530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0089.110803T1228Z-110803T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
828 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO
NAGUABO
CEIBA
FAJARDO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1130 AM AST

* AT 824 AM AST...USGS RIVER SENSORS INDICATE THAT THE FAJARDO RIVER
IS STILL OUT OF ITS BANKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID ROADS WHERE
EXCESSIVE PONDING IS OBSERVED.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6586 1838 6563 1823 6559 1819 6572

$$

JJA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC069-095-151-031700-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0091.110803T1402Z-110803T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1002 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
MAUNABO
HUMACAO
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 100 PM AST

* AT 953 AM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUING TO AFFECT THIS AREA. ALSO...USGS RIVER SENSORS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AREA RIVERS ARE OUT OF ITS BANKS.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1:00 PM
AST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

IN MOUNTAINOUS OR HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 1808 6599 1820 6581 1817 6575 1802 6584
1798 6592

$$

JJA/AAS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC001-055-059-079-093-111-113-121-125-153-031630-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0092.110803T1440Z-110803T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS
MARICAO
SABANA GRANDE
SAN GERMAN
YAUCO
GUAYANILLA
GUANICA
PONCE
PENUELAS
LAJAS

* UNTIL 1230 PM AST

* AT 1033 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
VERY INTENSE RAINFALL FALLING OVER SOUTH PUERTO RICO WITH RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES PER HOUR. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
IS APPROACHING TO THE WARNED AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY SHARP RISES ON AREA
RIVERS WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO AT LEAST THROUGH 1230 PM AST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID ROADS WHERE
EXCESSIVE PONDING IS OBSERVED.

IN MOUNTAINOUS OR HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6708 1819 6699 1817 6683 1822 6682
1820 6669 1815 6667 1813 6658 1798 6656
1795 6709

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

PRC007-021-025-033-041-061-127-139-031615-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0090.000000T0000Z-110803T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
1032 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM AST FOR SAN
JUAN...CATANO...GUAYNABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...AGUAS BUENAS...CIDRA...
CAGUAS AND BAYAMON MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 1018 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FALLING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARD THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
OCCURRING WITH THESE INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6613 1824 6618 1841 6620 1847 6614
1846 6601 1827 6604 1814 6607

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

Be safe and dry cycloneye!

These are yesteday temps in Central America:
-Cooler than normal highs were registered again in Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador. Near normal highs were registered in the rest of the countries.
-Near normal lows occurred in all the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 12°C (54°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.4°C (54.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.4°C (93.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-103-119-147-031815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0093.110803T1527Z-110803T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1127 AM AST WED AUG 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED AND
EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO
NAGUABO
CEIBA
FAJARDO
RIO GRANDE
VIEQUES

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* AT 1117 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WARNED AREA. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT VIEQUES. THE AREA RIVERS
ARE STILL SWOLLEN AND THERE IS FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS AND ROADS.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED...AND EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE VIEQUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID ROADS WHERE
EXCESSIVE PONDING IS OBSERVED.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1812 6525 1805 6560 1810 6563 1816 6560
1815 6569 1843 6586 1838 6563 1833 6556
1824 6553 1820 6536

$$

JJA/AAS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC001-055-059-079-093-111-113-121-125-153-031930-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0092.000000T0000Z-110803T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1216 PM AST WED AUG 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS
MARICAO
SABANA GRANDE
SAN GERMAN
YAUCO
GUAYANILLA
GUANICA
PONCE
PENUELAS
LAJAS

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 1202 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WARNED AREA. THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS WILL AGGRAVATE FLOODING IN URBAN
AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND AREA RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID ROADS WHERE
EXCESSIVE PONDING IS OBSERVED.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6708 1819 6699 1817 6683 1822 6682
1820 6669 1815 6667 1813 6658 1798 6656
1795 6709

$$

JJA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Between 6-9 inches have fallen so far in Puerto Rico and is not over yet. At link below, there are a few photos of the floodings. The good news is no fatalities have occured so far.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/fotodetalle-e ... 30678.html

[msbee]

Wow, Luis, thats a lot of rain.
Thanks for the pictures.
Sure hope everyone stays safe.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED AUG 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT 2 PM...TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST. OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED TO
TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAINBANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AFFECTING MOST PUERTO RICO. THE MOST
INTENSE SHOWERS OCCURRED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WHERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REACH 10 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
SEVERAL RIVERS WERE OUT OF ITS BANKS INCLUDING THE MAJOR RIVERS OF
RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA AND RIO LA PLATA. ANOTHER AREA THAT WAS
AFFECTED BY THESE RAINBANDS WAS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WHERE AT
THIS MOMENT SHOWERS HAVE GENERATED BETWEEN 3 TO 4 INCHES AND IS
FORECAST TO RAIN 1 TO 3 INCHES MORE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING INCREASING THE ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVERAGE

&&

.AVIATION...OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PARTS OF PR THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. WINDS GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF PR AND USVI THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PRODUCE TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TJMZ/TJPS/TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS CANCEL FOR
OUR LOCAL WATERS DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ALSO MARINERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 79 91 / 50 50 20 30
STT 80 89 79 90 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC055-059-079-093-111-121-125-153-032215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0094.110803T1929Z-110803T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST WED AUG 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
MARICAO
SABANA GRANDE
SAN GERMAN
YAUCO
GUAYANILLA
GUANICA
PENUELAS
LAJAS

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 306 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VERY SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH
THESE INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID ROADS WHERE
EXCESSIVE PONDING IS OBSERVED.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6708 1819 6699 1816 6684 1811 6676
1812 6668 1798 6669 1795 6709

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

News from DR and Haiti. Place cursor over information to get translation to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 133498.php