ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Pass fix was roughly 305 degrees...so at the very least a wobble of to the WNW...also much slower motion...

Think its about to pick up some latitude at last...

When I loop this image, I see a little WSW wobble, maybe that is what Aric is referring to:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

yeah figured they turned hard right so they did not miss the center.. also see a wobble just south of west on sat.

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032010
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 23 20110803
200030 1711N 07028W 8429 01547 0057 +199 +074 083025 026 037 001 00
200100 1713N 07028W 8418 01558 0062 +192 +075 084025 027 038 000 00
200130 1715N 07028W 8432 01546 0064 +190 +075 082023 023 037 000 00
200200 1716N 07028W 8433 01545 0068 +188 +074 087023 024 036 000 00
200230 1718N 07028W 8425 01554 0069 +186 +073 083024 025 037 000 03
200300 1720N 07028W 8432 01552 0071 +187 +071 092025 027 038 000 00
200330 1722N 07029W 8429 01554 0073 +187 +070 093027 028 036 000 00
200400 1723N 07029W 8429 01556 0076 +185 +071 092028 029 034 000 00
200430 1725N 07029W 8430 01555 0078 +183 +070 092027 028 033 000 00
200500 1727N 07029W 8428 01557 0076 +185 +070 090026 026 033 000 00
200530 1729N 07029W 8430 01555 0078 +183 +070 088026 026 034 000 00
200600 1731N 07029W 8429 01558 0078 +186 +070 091029 030 034 000 00
200630 1733N 07029W 8429 01559 0079 +185 +070 092028 030 034 000 00
200700 1734N 07029W 8433 01554 0078 +189 +070 091028 028 033 000 00
200730 1736N 07029W 8429 01559 0080 +185 +070 094029 030 033 000 00
200800 1738N 07029W 8429 01558 0081 +185 +070 097030 031 032 000 00
200830 1740N 07029W 8433 01558 0081 +186 +070 097030 030 032 000 00
200900 1742N 07029W 8425 01565 0083 +184 +070 099029 030 032 000 00
200930 1744N 07029W 8433 01559 0086 +183 +069 101029 030 031 000 00
201000 1746N 07029W 8429 01564 0087 +181 +069 101030 030 031 000 00
$$
;

[HURRICANELONNY]

At this point. Emily's center could pass over my house and it would be a partly sunny breezy day. I'm not to worried about her. There will be others coming down the pike real soon.

[micktooth]

I did not mean to offend anyone with my previous post a few pages back. We are intrigued by the tropics and love S2K or we wouldn't be here. Observing a wild storm like Emily with so many unknowns sometimes can lead to sarcasm. It's nice to have a laugh once in a while, so excuse me if I seemed out of line....Now back to the show....I think we'll be talking about this storm for a long time. With all of our scientific advances, Mother Nature still seems a step ahead of us! You all have a great day!

The previous post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jonj2040]

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[Gustywind]

PR continues to be swept by the outer bands of weak TS Emily. We have a thought for our member Cycloneye. He provides us amazing pics of the floodings who have occured today it in its country. Seems that these episodes of strong showers and tstorms continue so... be safe and dry amigo en la isla del encanto .

[Aric Dunn]

no VDM yet.. hmmm

[Stormcenter]

Not saying this will be the case here because I don't think it will but does anyone remember how drastically ALL of the models changed from one run to another the Friday before Katrina made landfall? They were all bunched together around the Fl. panhandle and then all shifted way over to around the SE LA. coastline. It was not expected. IMO

[SouthFloridawx]

no VDM yet.. hmmm

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 19:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°49'N 70°29'W (16.8167N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSW (199°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 20kts (From the N at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the north quadrant at 20:08:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) from the flight level center

[jonj2040]

A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 19:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°49'N 70°29'W (16.8167N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSW (199°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 20kts (From the N at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the north quadrant at 20:08:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) from the flight level center

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 032017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 03/19:53:40Z
B. 16 deg 49 min N
070 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1461 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 360 deg 20 kt
G. 239 deg 24 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 19 C / 1524 m
J. 21 C / 1527 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0805A EMILY OB 08
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 17:51:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT N QUAD 20:08:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 207 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032020
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 24 20110803
201030 1747N 07029W 8429 01564 0089 +181 +069 101031 032 029 001 00
201100 1749N 07029W 8425 01573 0090 +185 +069 097033 034 /// /// 03
201130 1750N 07031W 8431 01561 0089 +182 +069 091034 035 032 000 03
201200 1750N 07033W 8426 01568 0089 +180 +069 089032 033 033 000 00
201230 1750N 07035W 8432 01561 0092 +178 +068 087032 033 035 000 03
201300 1750N 07038W 8431 01563 0096 +170 +067 084029 030 036 000 00
201330 1750N 07040W 8429 01566 0094 +174 +066 076026 026 036 000 00
201400 1750N 07042W 8432 01562 0092 +175 +066 078026 026 035 000 00
201430 1749N 07044W 8429 01565 0093 +173 +066 076027 029 034 000 00
201500 1749N 07046W 8431 01562 0096 +171 +066 073027 027 033 000 00
201530 1749N 07048W 8429 01564 0098 +166 +066 067027 028 033 000 00
201600 1749N 07050W 8429 01562 0095 +170 +064 062027 027 033 001 00
201630 1749N 07053W 8431 01564 0097 +169 +063 060029 030 031 000 00
201700 1749N 07055W 8432 01565 0097 +169 +063 062029 030 033 001 03
201730 1748N 07056W 8425 01570 0104 +156 +064 053028 030 039 008 03
201800 1746N 07058W 8423 01568 0109 +146 +063 044027 029 046 016 00
201830 1745N 07059W 8427 01564 0102 +157 +061 052028 029 037 003 00
201900 1743N 07101W 8429 01563 0095 +169 +060 056029 031 036 004 00
201930 1742N 07102W 8428 01564 0103 +156 +060 054030 030 039 004 00
202000 1740N 07104W 8434 01559 0094 +170 +061 055029 030 035 001 03
$$
;

[HurricaneWarning92]

i think shes either going to make "landfall" on the Haiti peninsula or just south of it. So she would have more time in the water, but then comes Cuba, which still has high mountains but not as high as DR.

[Aric Dunn]

hehe.. VDM says.. it went wwwwwnwwww by .02

[NDG]

I just wanted to mention this.... I noticed it the past few days.. The red circle is a very strange wind shift line/ boundary that has basically been semi permanent entity for this system and seems like the reason for the sw quad having limited inflow over the last few days.. there should a much more gradual shift to winds as you go around a tropical system. the weird thing is it does not rotate with the system it just sits there as a boundary. dont think I have ever really seen it before.

Good point Aric, as if she has been out running her inflow.

[MGC]

Emily's naked swirl had better start busting a move to the north real soon if it is going to follow track. I'm thinking the shallow BAM model has the best solution in the short run. Until Emily builds deep convection near the center it will move with the low level flow. I think convection will be hit and miss near the center until Emily pulls away from Hispaniola. The circulation is pulling in a lot of dry air coming down the mountains right now. I see the track shifting west the next 12-24 hours....MGC


Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[jonj2040]

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[darc87]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurri ... ghetti.gif

Looks like more consensus to the East of Florida.

darc87

[SouthFLTropics]

i think shes either going to make "landfall" on the Haiti peninsula or just south of it. So she would have more time in the water, but then comes Cuba, which still has high mountains but not as high as DR.

I'm thinking that she may try to shoot the gap between Cuba and Haiti...either that or possibly reform around the land mass. It wouldn't be the first time that we have seen storms do that.

SFT

[KWT]

Gained a tiny amount latitude, of course its not much because its slower at the moment.

Still heading south of DR...and odds are its going to have a job hitting Haiti as well...