ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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- Evil Jeremy
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NHC usually has update out by now, maybe something big is gonna happen???



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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- TreasureIslandFLGal
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Re: Re:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Bobo2000 wrote:Minimum central pressure is 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 InHg), and the system is moving WEST-NORTHWEST at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).
What was your source for that information.
These storms and S2K are like a drug...I'm anxiously sitting here hitting refresh on the NHC site waiting for the 5:00PM update to come out. Us storm enthusiests live for 11:00 and 5:00!
...and 8:00 and 2:00 and any times in between that models come out or recon flies!

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Chrissy & Ligeia


Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I have a program that is telling me it is moving West-Northwest at 14 mph.
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_____________________
There can be only one Hypercane.....

There can be only one Hypercane.....

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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

- mf_dolphin
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
micktooth wrote:I did not mean to offend anyone with my previous post a few pages back. We are intrigued by the tropics and love S2K or we wouldn't be here. Observing a wild storm like Emily with so many unknowns sometimes can lead to sarcasm. It's nice to have a laugh once in a while, so excuse me if I seemed out of line....Now back to the show....I think we'll be talking about this storm for a long time. With all of our scientific advances, Mother Nature still seems a step ahead of us! You all have a great day!
The previous post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Thanks. Been watching this %@#&$&% for too long.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:NDG wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:I just wanted to mention this.... I noticed it the past few days.. The red circle is a very strange wind shift line/ boundary that has basically been semi permanent entity for this system and seems like the reason for the sw quad having limited inflow over the last few days.. there should a much more gradual shift to winds as you go around a tropical system. the weird thing is it does not rotate with the system it just sits there as a boundary. dont think I have ever really seen it before.
Good point Aric, as if she has been out running her inflow.
What do y'all think about what would happen to this boundary area if it were to go over Jamaica? Would the island disrupt this feature and finally "clear it out" of Emily for good? That would potentially allow her to build fresh with an established LLC over warm waters.
Yeah, IMO, Jamaica helped Don when it was just an invest get a broad circulation going when its vorticity was between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, again IMO.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:NHC usually has update out by now, maybe something big is gonna happen???![]()
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing as well. They normally at least have the forecast advisory out by now with the public advisory soon to follow. They may be coordinating watches and warnings with the Bahamian government and that could be holding things up.
SFT
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
- Evil Jeremy
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THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
- mf_dolphin
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Re:
Bobo2000 wrote:Minimum central pressure is 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 InHg), and the system is moving WEST-NORTHWEST at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).
Actually according to the last 2 fixes it's 1003mbar.
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- gatorcane
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Shift left?
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2056.shtml
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2056.shtml
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 03, 2011 3:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SouthFLTropics wrote:Blown Away wrote:NHC usually has update out by now, maybe something big is gonna happen???![]()
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing as well. They normally at least have the forecast advisory out by now with the public advisory soon to follow. They may be coordinating watches and warnings with the Bahamian government and that could be holding things up.
SFT
Tropical Storm watch issued for the NW Bahamas. The forecast advisory is up at the NHC site.
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 16.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 31.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 16.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 31.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
A little snippet from the new advisory
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
I think that's the first time I've seen them mention for South Florida to monitor the progress
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
I think that's the first time I've seen them mention for South Florida to monitor the progress
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 032056
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT35 KNHC 032056
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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_____________________
There can be only one Hypercane.....

There can be only one Hypercane.....

Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wow, the tracking map has it FURTHER AWAY from Florida???


Last edited by CronkPSU on Wed Aug 03, 2011 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Shift left?
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2056.shtml
Actually shifted right
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