NOGAPS does NOT paint a good picture for South Carolina

[Stormsfury]

Even so the NOGAPS hasn't strayed from its solution in the last 3 runs, so far, I've seen no other model support ... and hopefully, for my sake, the NOGAPS isn't onto something ... that's the last thing I need right now ...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

[Stephanie]

Could be ugly! What a way to end the summer! :o

[wxman57]

If you look at the 144hr NOGAPS you'll see it takes the system straight west into northern Florida after 120hrs:

http://152.80.49.210/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_P ... =ngp_namer[url]

The reason for a west turn would be high pressure building toward the east U.S. coast north of the system. Of course, there's no guarantee that this disturbance will even develop. The NOGAPS develops it way NE of the Bahamas, perhaps too far NE. I have my doubts that this thing will develop beyond maybe a weak TD or minimal TS. Right now, I'd say the chances of development are less than 50/50. Most likely it'll just give Florida more rain.[/url]

[Stormsfury]

I believe you're right ... and my weary impatience and among other things going on doesn't invoke clear thinking...especially since NOGAPS looked to appear to paint a grim picture ...

However, IMO, the NOGAPS looks too amplified with the overall pattern...

Thoughts?

SF

[Kennethb]

My personal take on the NOGAPS is that it is usually out to sea.