ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Bobo2000]

What do you think of Emily now? Struggling in my opinion.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html

[plasticup]

I have a theory. What if Emily moved a little more west and missed the gap, I mean that's a very small gap.

What gap? Between Haiti and Cuba? Well Cuba is pretty mountainous too, so she would tear up a bit.

Or do you mean the atmospheric trough?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032140
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 32 20110803
213030 1730N 06934W 8430 01558 0098 +159 +066 150040 043 035 002 00
213100 1732N 06934W 8432 01559 0094 +165 +064 150039 040 033 002 00
213130 1734N 06934W 8429 01562 0094 +167 +063 152040 040 031 000 00
213200 1736N 06934W 8425 01565 0095 +170 +063 148037 038 031 000 00
213230 1738N 06934W 8428 01564 0097 +165 +064 144035 036 033 001 00
213300 1740N 06934W 8436 01553 0094 +167 +065 152038 038 032 001 00
213330 1741N 06935W 8431 01563 0095 +170 +065 150037 039 032 000 00
213400 1743N 06935W 8424 01570 0096 +171 +065 150036 036 032 000 00
213430 1745N 06935W 8428 01567 0097 +169 +065 148035 035 033 000 00
213500 1747N 06935W 8432 01564 0099 +169 +065 147031 032 033 001 00
213530 1749N 06935W 8426 01571 0095 +174 +066 147030 030 033 001 00
213600 1751N 06935W 8425 01572 0098 +172 +066 147031 032 034 000 00
213630 1753N 06936W 8435 01562 0102 +165 +066 143031 032 034 000 00
213700 1755N 06936W 8426 01575 0106 +165 +065 141030 030 /// /// 03
213730 1755N 06937W 8433 01569 0105 +165 +064 142030 031 /// /// 03
213800 1754N 06939W 8432 01563 0100 +166 +064 139030 031 034 001 00
213830 1753N 06940W 8428 01568 0099 +168 +064 136030 030 033 000 00
213900 1752N 06941W 8427 01569 0099 +166 +065 137030 031 034 000 00
213930 1751N 06942W 8429 01564 0098 +166 +064 143028 028 035 000 00
214000 1750N 06943W 8427 01567 0102 +160 +063 142029 030 036 003 00
$$
;

[Bobo2000]

The gap of Haiti and Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

A find it interesting that the low-level wind field (while not terribly strong) is the healthiest its been since the system developed. The recon data from all 4 quads finally have the look of a consolidated, well-defined system, with no more indications of a stretched out broad low.

Yeah noticed that to.. it is likely a cause of land interaction.. the winds piling up on the mountains likely slowed the low level flow that had been plaguing the system. allowing it to tighten.also the the winds pushing against the mountains can cause the background pressure close to the system ( localized ) to tighten. which is also why I think the core pressure dropped while it was a naked swirl.

[ROCK]

What do you think of Emily now? Struggling in my opinion.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html

look at the shear coming in from the SW.....one of the reasons..

[TexasF6]

IMO only--when you look at the sat image, zoom in and find the llc, it now seems to be SW at a diagonal from its previous plot by the NHC...you have to put the plots on and animate the graphic...Emily is a defiant one to say the least....these are my conjectures and not that of any official government entity... OT-I just said hello to the Death Ridge, it told me to go back inside and wait till dusk when its only 102 to go fetch groceries....

[AJC3]

Silly question... so is the circle on top the last VDM I would assume so... if so it did not move?

Not silly. It isn't the latest, it's the second of the last 3, which were...

1821Z 16°47'N 70°24'W
1954Z 16°49'N 70°29'W
2039Z 16°52'N 70°32'W

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone seeing the GFS<, crazy slower and farther south.. with some ridging building off the SC coast

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032150
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 33 20110803
214030 1748N 06945W 8430 01562 0105 +152 +061 142026 028 036 008 00
214100 1747N 06946W 8429 01561 0101 +158 +060 140033 034 032 002 00
214130 1746N 06947W 8432 01561 0100 +164 +059 139030 031 031 000 00
214200 1745N 06948W 8429 01566 0098 +164 +058 136028 029 032 001 00
214230 1744N 06949W 8428 01563 0098 +163 +059 134030 031 032 001 00
214300 1743N 06951W 8431 01561 0095 +168 +060 136028 029 033 000 00
214330 1743N 06951W 8431 01561 0094 +170 +060 136030 031 033 000 00
214400 1740N 06953W 8426 01566 0091 +175 +061 138030 030 034 001 00
214430 1739N 06954W 8432 01557 0092 +170 +064 134036 037 033 001 00
214500 1738N 06955W 8428 01564 0095 +168 +065 133032 033 032 002 00
214530 1737N 06957W 8428 01563 0094 +170 +066 136031 032 033 000 00
214600 1736N 06958W 8429 01561 0091 +171 +066 135034 036 034 003 00
214630 1735N 06959W 8424 01567 0092 +169 +066 134033 035 036 001 00
214700 1733N 07000W 8431 01556 0087 +173 +066 134033 034 035 000 00
214730 1732N 07002W 8419 01566 0096 +154 +065 130031 031 037 008 00
214800 1731N 07003W 8430 01555 0080 +180 +063 128030 032 034 000 00
214830 1730N 07004W 8428 01557 0080 +180 +063 125028 028 034 000 00
214900 1729N 07005W 8430 01555 0075 +187 +064 124025 026 032 000 00
214930 1728N 07006W 8424 01560 0071 +195 +066 116023 024 032 000 00
215000 1726N 07008W 8432 01552 0068 +198 +068 112020 022 031 001 00
$$
;

I'll be back up to speed soon...just logged in and setting picture info up now.

[Aric Dunn]

Silly question... so is the circle on top the last VDM I would assume so... if so it did not move?

Not silly. It isn't the latest, it's the second of the last 3, which were...

1821Z 16°47'N 70°24'W
1954Z 16°49'N 70°29'W
2039Z 16°52'N 70°32'W

ok just somehow ended up in foreground ...thought it looked funny.

[Dave]

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone seeing the GFS<, crazy slower and farther south.. with some ridging building off the SC coast

What are you thinking here Aric? Maybe a cyclonic loop and then pushed back to the west like Jeanne was?

SFT

[plasticup]

Anyone seeing the GFS<, crazy slower and farther south.. with some ridging building off the SC coast

Yeah, wow. That's the ridge building back earlier than in previous runs and halting the recurve. It almost pushes Emily into Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone seeing the GFS<, crazy slower and farther south.. with some ridging building off the SC coast

What are you thinking here Aric? Maybe a cyclonic loop and then pushed back to the west like Jeanne was?

SFT

so far seems to be riding the norther coast of Cuba.. looks like it might get stuck under the southern US ridge.. ?? hard to tell

[Dave]

HDOBS 31 - ARCHIVE

Code: Select all

000
URNT15 KNHC 032130
AF306 0805A EMILY              HDOB 31 20110803
212030 1652N 06931W 8432 01561 0098 +164 +062 165035 035 034 004 00
212100 1654N 06931W 8430 01561 0099 +163 +063 160034 035 035 006 00
212130 1655N 06931W 8425 01567 0098 +163 +062 154032 032 036 006 00
212200 1657N 06931W 8426 01566 0097 +165 +061 155029 030 037 006 00
212230 1659N 06931W 8433 01557 0095 +165 +061 155028 029 038 006 00
212300 1701N 06931W 8430 01560 0097 +165 +061 158027 027 039 009 00
212330 1703N 06932W 8429 01556 0088 +168 +061 163028 030 044 011 03
212400 1705N 06932W 8421 01565 0073 +191 +060 168029 030 045 008 03
212430 1707N 06932W 8434 01552 0081 +181 +061 164030 031 041 006 00
212500 1709N 06932W 8424 01561 0079 +182 +062 167032 032 040 003 00
212530 1710N 06932W 8433 01551 0079 +182 +062 163032 033 038 004 00
212600 1712N 06932W 8427 01557 0081 +178 +063 161033 033 034 003 00
212630 1714N 06932W 8429 01555 0085 +174 +064 161033 034 036 001 00
212700 1716N 06933W 8435 01549 0084 +173 +065 161036 037 037 001 00
212730 1718N 06933W 8425 01560 0085 +175 +066 162038 038 038 001 00
212800 1720N 06933W 8429 01557 0084 +174 +067 161038 039 037 003 00
212830 1722N 06933W 8429 01556 0085 +175 +068 158039 041 038 002 00
212900 1724N 06933W 8429 01556 0087 +171 +068 155039 040 035 002 00
212930 1726N 06933W 8430 01557 0091 +167 +067 151037 038 036 002 00
213000 1728N 06934W 8428 01562 0093 +166 +067 148037 039 036 002 00
$$
;




[Dean4Storms]

The slowing is abating the effects of the shear a little bit and giving her a chance to get convection around the COC.

Expect her to begin the turn now. The slowing is indicative of a turn.

[NDG]

What do you think of Emily now? Struggling in my opinion.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html

Did you see it earlier this morning?

[plasticup]

And the Canadian model builds the ridge back too. Only problem is that it failed to initiate Emily, so we can't see how the storm would respond. My guess is that it would be similar to GFS and that we can no longer assume a recurve.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032200
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 34 20110803
215030 1725N 07009W 8424 01557 0062 +202 +069 110020 021 032 001 00
215100 1724N 07010W 8429 01552 0061 +204 +070 111020 021 033 000 00
215130 1723N 07012W 8434 01544 0063 +198 +071 103017 019 032 000 00
215200 1722N 07013W 8428 01551 0057 +208 +071 093017 019 031 001 00
215230 1720N 07014W 8426 01552 0056 +208 +071 073019 019 031 000 00
215300 1719N 07016W 8433 01544 0059 +201 +071 071019 019 032 000 00
215330 1718N 07017W 8432 01546 0060 +197 +070 071018 020 033 000 00
215400 1716N 07018W 8430 01546 0059 +199 +068 076020 020 034 001 00
215430 1715N 07019W 8431 01545 0060 +198 +067 091018 020 030 000 00
215500 1714N 07021W 8422 01553 0057 +198 +067 098019 020 028 001 00
215530 1713N 07022W 8425 01550 0054 +201 +067 100020 022 029 001 00
215600 1711N 07023W 8430 01545 0056 +198 +066 098018 018 029 001 00
215630 1710N 07025W 8424 01547 0052 +199 +067 098019 019 030 001 00
215700 1709N 07026W 8428 01544 0046 +209 +068 092017 019 031 000 00
215730 1708N 07027W 8433 01538 0047 +204 +069 096017 017 031 000 00
215800 1706N 07028W 8428 01539 0043 +209 +070 096016 017 024 000 03
215830 1705N 07029W 8430 01537 0041 +209 +071 091014 016 023 003 03
215900 1703N 07029W 8425 01540 0040 +209 +072 088009 010 017 002 03
215930 1701N 07029W 8425 01540 0038 +210 +074 086006 007 017 000 03
220000 1700N 07029W 8432 01531 0035 +212 +076 103004 004 018 000 00
$$
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