CronkPSU wrote:Blown Away wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL335 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FRI-SUN...FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE LATEST 18Z NHC FORECAST
TRACKS EMILY FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF CUBA NORTHWEST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. FROM THERE EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND REMAIN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AS A
TROPICAL STORM FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT MUST BE
STRESSED THAT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. AS THE
FORECAST TRACK STANDS AS OF 18Z...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND PERHAPS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
this far out??? we are less than 60 hours out from it reaching Florida according to the NHC projections
Yes, this far out. We're talking about a TC that has had a history of intensity issues with respect to shear, dry air and land interaction, and has been consistently moving left of the forecast track, yet is forecast to be in the midst of a recurve while it's moving near both the latitude and longitude of the Florida east coast.
How can forecast confidence be anything BUT low?