ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Florida1118]

Major shift westward by the concensus.

So at 11 we'll see a shift east in the cone right? Ah just kidding. Not bashing the NHC. They know what their doing. Im thinking the Westward edge of the cone will be near Tampa, or so, just to nudge the cone west a little to agree with concensus

[lebron23]

BAMS took don to brownsville whille the rest were shifting north....

[RL3AO]

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NOAA G-IV shows shear drops off just south of Haiti. Wouldn't not be surprised to see Emily have her best night yet and start intensifying before making landfall in Haiti.

[Kory]

BAMS took don to brownsville whille the rest were shifting north....

That is true...the BAMs were pretty good in handling Don, another disorganized system like Emily.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Also from the recon thread:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD

Guess she is trying her best to intensify. I sure hate the fact Haiti is going to be feeling ANY effects at all from this. Hopefully they will be as minimal as possible.

Hopefully. Even if Emily was just a depression it'd still leave a lot of damage in its wake. Though luckily if it starts really strengthening then it'll be very minimal once it starts crossing over Hispaniola/Cuba. Doesn't have much time left until it gets to the other side where conditions will become more favorable.

[AHS2011]

Will there be a northern shift as well as a western shift in the models, or no?

[NDG]

Just in case somebody has a question what is going to be making Emily move on a WNW to NW track over the next couple of days.
As you know this morning there was trough of low pressure to her NW in the western Atlantic. That trough is now lifting out but leaving a weakness in the ridge, Emily will be moving towards that weakness but she cannot move too much poleward initially because ridging will be moving back in place of the trough before yet another trough starts coming down late weekend and pushes the ridge back SE.
There has been differences between the strength of the ridge that is pushing back from her NE with the GFS previously showing a weaker ridge, the UKMET showing the stronger ridge and then the ECMWF showing a consensus between them two.
A weaker ridge will mean that Emily will track well east of FL before the next trough comes down, a stronger ridge moving back in from the Atlantic means a more western track close or on top of SE FL before a bend back to the NE as the next trough comes down.
I hope this explains it for those of you that might be wondering what is going to be steering Emily over the next two to three days.

I am picking the euro below because is a consensus between the UKMET and GFS, you can see the ridge moving back in tomorrow through Saturday before the trough pushes it back SE.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/1108040 ... 000_an.gif

This is as good an explanation of the situation for the next 72 hours. I also agree that the Euro solution is probably a good one to follow. But, the way Emily has behaved to this point, nothing can be ruled out with the track. We'll know more hopefully with the set-up with the steering hopefully by this time tomorrow or early Friday at the latest.

Hopefully by tomorrow morning at the latest we should have a better idea as SE FL would have just 48 hrs to make preparations before feeling the effects of tropical system.

[HurricaneWarning92]

What i dont understand is now models intensify this storm to around a 90 mph + cyclone near the Bahamas/Florida when in previous runs they showed little intensification. How is this possible. Can a 50 mph storm intensify that quick in what seems less than a day? Even after it is most likely to weaken after crossing a bit of Haiti/Cuba?

[lebron23]

What i dont understand is now models intensify this storm to around a 90 mph + cyclone near the Bahamas/Florida when in previous runs they showed little intensification. How is this possible. Can a 50 mph storm intensify that quick in what seems less than a day? Even after it is most likely to weaken after crossing a bit of Haiti/Cuba?

Humberto TD to Cane in less than 24 hours i believe

[TwisterFanatic]

What i dont understand is now models intensify this storm to around a 90 mph + cyclone near the Bahamas/Florida when in previous runs they showed little intensification. How is this possible. Can a 50 mph storm intensify that quick in what seems less than a day? Even after it is most likely to weaken after crossing a bit of Haiti/Cuba?

Models are forecasting a very favorable environment north of Haiti/DR, so anything is possible, but the models predicting a Cat 2+ Hurricane heading towards Florida are probably not realistic, but it all depends what part of Haiti is goes over.

[Blown Away]

Luis, where is the BAM updates w/ all the info?

[jlauderdal]

Just in case somebody has a question what is going to be making Emily move on a WNW to NW track over the next couple of days.
As you know this morning there was trough of low pressure to her NW in the western Atlantic. That trough is now lifting out but leaving a weakness in the ridge, Emily will be moving towards that weakness but she cannot move too much poleward initially because ridging will be moving back in place of the trough before yet another trough starts coming down late weekend and pushes the ridge back SE.
There has been differences between the strength of the ridge that is pushing back from her NE with the GFS previously showing a weaker ridge, the UKMET showing the stronger ridge and then the ECMWF showing a consensus between them two.
A weaker ridge will mean that Emily will track well east of FL before the next trough comes down, a stronger ridge moving back in from the Atlantic means a more western track close or on top of SE FL before a bend back to the NE as the next trough comes down.
I hope this explains it for those of you that might be wondering what is going to be steering Emily over the next two to three days.

I am picking the euro below because is a consensus between the UKMET and GFS, you can see the ridge moving back in tomorrow through Saturday before the trough pushes it back SE.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/1108040 ... 000_an.gif

This is as good an explanation of the situation for the next 72 hours. I also agree that the Euro solution is probably a good one to follow. But, the way Emily has behaved to this point, nothing can be ruled out with the track. We'll know more hopefully with the set-up with the steering hopefully by this time tomorrow or early Friday at the latest.

Hopefully by tomorrow morning at the latest we should have a better idea as SE FL would have just 48 hrs to make preparations before feeling the effects of tropical system.

we will know its getting close when Vortex starts posting the NAM runs...

[Vortex]

Looking much better on the IR with every passing hour....She certainly appears to be organizing..

[Aric Dunn]

been gone for a few hours.. but apparently after a little reorganizing and cyclonic loops.. seems the straight west motion started again .. at least according to the last couple recon passes.. noticed models shifted west cor 18z.. not surprised. going to be a tricky next couple day.. mostly because to see how she reacts to land ...

or am i not surprised to see the NHC track on the east side of the consensus

[Nimbus]

Interesting spread. The toe of the BAM medium is going left, the BAM shallow is tapping both ways and the CMC is going right this run.. And the BAM suite aren't even dynamic models..

Hope this model spread narrows tomorrow.

[Blown Away]

JLauderdal, are you going to fire up the generator for a test run tomorrow??

[HurricaneWarning92]

What i dont understand is now models intensify this storm to around a 90 mph + cyclone near the Bahamas/Florida when in previous runs they showed little intensification. How is this possible. Can a 50 mph storm intensify that quick in what seems less than a day? Even after it is most likely to weaken after crossing a bit of Haiti/Cuba?

Models are forecasting a very favorable environment north of Haiti/DR, so anything is possible, but the models predicting a Cat 2+ Hurricane heading towards Florida are probably not realistic, but it all depends what part of Haiti is goes over.

So that means it is expected to move very slowly north of Haiti right? Because if it moves fairly quickly then it wont have time to intensify. So im guessing this would have to happen.

[cycloneye]

Luis, where is the BAM updates w/ all the info?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/chg.txt

[wzrgirl1]

Looking much better on the IR with every passing hour....She certainly appears to be organizing..

Can you send a link please?

[TheShrimper]

I'm sure Jim's got it tuned and ready to go.