ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[CDO62]

That two blob image reminds me of an ex laying out topless. Good thing I had plenty of Aloe.

LOL....Emily is certainly showing her female side again.

[SouthFLTropics]

Predictions, does the 11pm track landfall in SFL?? I say very slight W adjustment near SFL, still 50 miles offshore.

I'll go with 30 to 40 miles offshore with a NNW track parallel to the coast until about Cape Canaveral and then a turn out to the North, NNE, and then NE

SFT

[gatorcane]

Anybody think any watches will be issued this advisory for SE FL...?

[Kory]

Bryan Norcross, on the WTC, just said that Emily is suffering from the dry air being pulled in from southern Aruba and the northern Dominican Republic. Emily has not turned due to the high pressure to the north and he is not sure if the models are forecasting properly, a break down in the ridge, currently to its north. He further says, "One of the main models is saying Emily is going to continue further west, I think that may be credible..."

[Vortex]

Predictions, does the 11pm track landfall in SFL?? I say very slight W adjustment near SFL, still 50 miles offshore.

I think a slight shift west at 11pm, 5am package may show a landfall/brush along SFL if trends continue...I expect watches to go up for portions of the east coast of FL sometime Thursday....

[Kory]

Anybody think any watches will be issued this advisory for SE FL...?

I think it all depends on if her forward motion increases...

[CourierPR]

If the NHC says she's headed NW, then I'll believe it.

[invest man]

this kind of reminds me a ittle of Dennis 1999. Can someone post a graph of that track? IM

[TheShrimper]

I doubt it Gatorcane. I think everyone wrote it off two or three days ago like you did.

[gatorcane]

The GFDL and HWRF are actually in good agreement and also with the ECMWF on a SE FL impact here, though the ECMWF is weaker.

Yeah, I can't see them shift the line to a landfall in SE FL just yet, I think they will have to shift it west but still the line will be offshore about 30-40 miles or so.

Once the 00Z models run and if they are still showing a SE FL hit, they will shift by 5AM...but not this advisory.

[umguy]

Looking at the models I expect the NHC to show a SOFL landfall. Planning for all of the people in SOFL will take some time and I can see earlier more than later.

[Kory]

If the NHC says she's headed NW, then I'll believe it.

Well they said she was supposed to cross over Puerto Rico a couple days ago...did you believe that? Plus on their last advisory, she is stationary. I don't know where you get NW from.

[jlauderdal]

Anybody think any watches will be issued this advisory for SE FL...?

too early for watches

[northjaxpro]

Predictions, does the 11pm track landfall in SFL?? I say very slight W adjustment near SFL, still 50 miles offshore.

I'll go with 30 to 40 miles offshore with a NNW track parallel to the coast until about Cape Canaveral and then a turn out to the North, NNE, and then NE

SFT

SFT, you are thinking along the lines of the GFDL, with the only difference being that the 18Z GFDL actually had it making landfall near Miami, then moving due north hugging the coast to about Cape Canaveral. Then at that point, it showed Emily lifting N/NE out to sea on Sunday.

[Evil Jeremy]

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

[HurricaneWarning92]

she looks better than earlier today thats for sure. She is trying to organize again. Anyone think she will strengthen somewhat before crossing over Haiti?

[Aric Dunn]

still on a west track.. the stationary was a cyclonic loop a result of the center being pulled into the convection. watches will have to go up for SE florida .. most likely tomorrow morning or afternoon.. funny thing to realize.. even with deeper convection the motion is still basically west meaning the steering is west to wnw even to the mid levels.

[SeminoleWind]

Even if the 11pm shows a south florida they will not issue any watches or warnings, its just to soon.

[psyclone]

i would think watches for south florida would be possible with the 11am advisory.

[Vortex]

A tad further west..within 60 miles of palm beach coastline


FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.