ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Scorpion]

And they still are lying east of concensus...

...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES

I don't know why they are not taking the consensus track... this seems a little abnormal to me.

No reason to cause media hysteria just yet..

[SunnyThoughts]

The 0z models are suppose to have at least some of the info from the G-IV flight flown earlier today.

[Aric Dunn]

when does recon go back out ?

[CourierPR]

I agree with Aric. It's prudent to take a conservative approach at this point with the storm still southeast of Florida. There is time to monitor the situation.

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon leaves in just over an hour...but I think they possibly are leaving from biloxi this time? NOt 100% sure of that...but I think thats what I read. So no fix until like 2am eastern.

[Vortex]

IT is a good reasoning actually.. there is so much uncertainty with track both becasue the initial motion and land interaction that shifting west any more would just be hasty since it could technically start moving NW now and their track verify.. waiting a little longer is not a bad idea at all..

Well said...

[invest man]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dennis_1999_track.png

just take this track and move it to the west of the bahamas and close to fl ec. IM

[supercane]

when does recon go back out ?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 02 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EMILY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 03/1800Z,04/0000Z A. 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0805A EMILY B. NOAA9 0905A EMILY
C. 03/1645Z C. 03/1730Z
D. 16.8N 69.3W D. NA
E. 03/1730Z TO 04/0000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1005A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 17.9N 71.0W
E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 05/0000Z DEPARTING 04/1730Z.
C. A P-3 TAIL DOPPER RADAR MISSION DEPARTING 04/2000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[tailgater]

Forgive me guys, I'm playing cautch up, did the center reform lately?

[Aric Dunn]

The 0z models are suppose to have at least some of the info from the G-IV flight flown earlier today.

im not sure if they are or not.. I imagine they would though . ..

[SunnyThoughts]

I was reading in the recon discussion thread, but the task they have listed there is for the 5th. Guess thats the mission leaving from Biloxi...not the next mission. Sorry for the boo boo.

[JPmia]

I'm begining to wonder if this is Hurricane David's (1979) little twin sister. Can we confirm that the G IV data was used in this latest forecast?

[Evil Jeremy]

The 0z models are suppose to have at least some of the info from the G-IV flight flown earlier today.

im not sure if they are or not.. I imagine they would though . ..

Someone in chat said that 14 of the 30 dropsondes happened in time to be in the 00z models.

[cycloneye]

I posted the wrong flight. Here is the correct one that departs at 12:45 AM EDT from St Croix.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
       A. 04/0600Z,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 1005A CYCLONE
       C. 04/0445Z
       D. 17.9N 71.0W
       E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



[Blown Away]

A tad further west..within 60 miles of palm beach coastline


FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

Yep, tad closer and winds up to 65 mph when it reaches WPB's latitude. Potential to be a hurricane at that point, IMO.

Could be, they even mentioned their intensity forecast is conservative.

Could you imagine if they showed an "H" in the track over S. Florida (if they took the intensity guidance and the track of the multimodel consensus)

The media is already in a frenzy and we just have a Tropical Storm threat.

But it all depends on what it looks like when it emerges on the Northern Coast of Cuba based on that track (assuming it does go that way)

Especially when Emily is N of Cuba and still a TS mess then begins moving towards the SFL coast and begins to strengthen. IMO, if it takes a track W of but not over Andros and moves up the Gulfstream there is the potential for a Cat 1-2 to develope and swipe WPB area.

[cpdaman]

We should start an "over/ under" line for how long this will be over cuba for. Im takin the over and think it will dramaticaly lower any shot of emily gettin near sfl as a cane i my opinion....but

[MGC]

Nice convective blow up this evening. Looks like the low level circulation has some convection to work with. Haiti is not going to be much of an issue for Emily, Cuba will be. I expect the circulation to get disrupted over Cuba and Emily will likely emerge as a TD off the north coast of Cuba. The key to south Florida though is how far west Emily gets before the NW then NNW turn. A 30 mile track difference could result in a
TS or weak hurricane passing harmlessly off the coast, or it could track along or just inland along the Florida east coast....where Emily goes is anybody's guess. I talked with my sister in Fort Lauderdale and advised her to get her hurricane supplies in order just in cast. She was hit hard by Wilma in 2005. Yes, this has been one tough nut to crack......MGC

[Rainband]

wow

[TwisterFanatic]

[Canelaw99]

Just caught the tail end of Max Mayfield on our local news station (WPLG) and he said tomorrow will be an important day for us here in S FL, and that we really need to keep an eye on this. Granted, he's not saying anything new, necessarily, but I always like hearing from him.