ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

The 0z models are suppose to have at least some of the info from the G-IV flight flown earlier today.

im not sure if they are or not.. I imagine they would though . ..

Someone in chat said that 14 of the 30 dropsondes happened in time to be in the 00z models.

Thats good I guess.. hopefully they were the good ones.. lol

[Blown Away]

WPTV Met says 3 possible tracks: (1) E of SFL thorugh Bahamas; (2) Landfall in SFL; (3) Up the Florida W Coast. Met says track 2 or 3 is most likely, based on 2 models showing SFL landfall.

[ozonepete]

The regenerative qualities this cyclone has had are impressive, and if you think about it, it must have a LOT to do with the ability of the MLC to hold together. Even when Emily seemed to be failing a new LLC appeared and reinvigorated the MLC. If that is true, that the mid-level circulation has had the most support through this whole episode, then it may very well survive the trip over land quite well. Since most if not all of the MLC will be above the 3,000 meter mountains of Haiti, the MLC should make it over the mountains fairly uninterrupted, and even though the LLC will disappear for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all if a new LLC appears near or under the MLC not long after the MLC center gets past the Haitian mountains.

[TexasF6]

So, the model spread points to either Miami or Brownsville eh? Fascinating....What is going on with this storm??

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[cycloneye]

The regenerative qualities this cyclone has had are impressive, and if you think about it, it must have a LOT to do with the ability of the MLC to hold together. Even when Emily seemed to be failing a new LLC appeared and reinvigorated the MLC. If that is true, that the mid-level circulation has had the most support through this whole episode, then it may very well survive the trip over land quite well. Since most if not all of the MLC will be above the 3,000 meter mountains of Haiti, the MLC should make it over the mountains fairly uninterrupted, and even though the LLC will disappear for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all if a new LLC appears near or under the MLC not long after the MLC center gets past the Haitian mountains.

It still has to go thru the Sierra Madre mountains in Eastern Cuba.

[bamajammer4eva]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES02152011216aBPgWF.jpg

Looks like 2 butt cheeks. Ones swollen though. JS

[Kohlecane]

well, from what i have been watching in the Sat Vis. it looks to me a shift more to the NW watch last few frames.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES02152011216aBPgWF.jpg

Looks like 2 butt cheeks. Ones swollen though. JS

I just said that to my girlfriends son.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Nice convective blow up this evening. Looks like the low level circulation has some convection to work with. Haiti is not going to be much of an issue for Emily, Cuba will be. I expect the circulation to get disrupted over Cuba and Emily will likely emerge as a TD off the north coast of Cuba. The key to south Florida though is how far west Emily gets before the NW then NNW turn. A 30 mile track difference could result in a
TS or weak hurricane passing harmlessly off the coast, or it could track along or just inland along the Florida east coast....where Emily goes is anybody's guess. I talked with my sister in Fort Lauderdale and advised her to get her hurricane supplies in order just in cast. She was hit hard by Wilma in 2005. Yes, this has been one tough nut to crack......MGC

Good to read your post tonight, MGC. I've always admired your straightforward calls and wording.

Hello all other Storm2K posters. I've been quietly following along.
-WLD

[Aric Dunn]

geez.. shears seems to have dropped off substantially ... that is a very large burst of convection... LLC still on very western side but with so much convection would not be surprised to see even more migration of the LLC into the convection..


this could bomb out tonight if the shear really is dropping off.. if this convection persists when recon gets out there we could have a 60mph ts ..

[Blown Away]

geez.. shears seems to have dropped off substantially ... that is a very large burst of convection... LLC still on very western side but with so much convection would not be surprised to see even more migration of the LLC into the convection..


this could bomb out tonight if the shear really is dropping off.. if this convection persists when recon gets out there we could have a 60mph ts ..

Amazing what 12 hours can do for a system!! Open wave calls this morning!

[Gustywind]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES02152011216aBPgWF.jpg

Looks like 2 butt cheeks. Ones swollen though. JS

I just said that to my girlfriends son.

[TexasF6]

The LLC is tucked under that new convection...she is sitting there, not moving...IMO...Kohlecane, did you see the LLC circulation when you saw the storm in motion? Its difficult to see...this storm is an enigma

well, from what i have been watching in the Sat Vis. it looks to me a shift more to the NW watch last few frames.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening,

The 11:00 pm update said west at 4 mph.

[Vortex]

geez.. shears seems to have dropped off substantially ... that is a very large burst of convection... LLC still on very western side but with so much convection would not be surprised to see even more migration of the LLC into the convection..


this could bomb out tonight if the shear really is dropping off.. if this convection persists when recon gets out there we could have a 60mph ts ..

Looking very good as the night wears on...continues to expand in all quadrants, low vertical shear, and convection contiuing to fire over the presumed LLC....

[floridasun78]

what chance getting to cat 1 before getting to miami area? by way she look to night

[CourierPR]

well, from what i have been watching in the Sat Vis. it looks to me a shift more to the NW watch last few frames.

Check out the RAMSDIS online tropical satellite loop. Tell me if you see a NW motion.

[ozonepete]

The regenerative qualities this cyclone has had are impressive, and if you think about it, it must have a LOT to do with the ability of the MLC to hold together. Even when Emily seemed to be failing a new LLC appeared and reinvigorated the MLC. If that is true, that the mid-level circulation has had the most support through this whole episode, then it may very well survive the trip over land quite well. Since most if not all of the MLC will be above the 3,000 meter mountains of Haiti, the MLC should make it over the mountains fairly uninterrupted, and even though the LLC will disappear for a while, it wouldn't surprise me at all if a new LLC appears near or under the MLC not long after the MLC center gets past the Haitian mountains.

It still has to go thru the Sierra Madre mountains in Eastern Cuba.

Yes my friend. I left that out.

[South Texas Storms]

Did any of the models predict Emily to slow down to a crawl at about this time? Is it possible she could miss the trough?

[floridasun78]

well, from what i have been watching in the Sat Vis. it looks to me a shift more to the NW watch last few frames.

Check out the RAMSDIS online tropical satellite loop. Tell me if you see a NW motion.

emily still moving west