WTPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 24.6N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 129.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.0N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.7N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.4N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.6N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.2N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.4N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 38.1N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 129.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 38
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W STRUGGLING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INNER EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND THE STORM INTENSITY
HAS FLATTENED OUT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT A 032024Z SSMIS
IMAGE REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE OUTER
EYEWALL. THE NEW EYE IS EXPANSIVE, MEASURING NEARLY 90 NM IN
DIAMETER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, YET EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE PAST FOUR
DAYS, THE ANTICYCLONE AT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH AND THE DATELINE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION
NEAR 35N 160E. THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING
THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE STORM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
28 DEGREES.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND RETROGRADE, FORCING THE STORM TOWARDS THE EAST CHINA SEA.
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STABLE AND MOVING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT.
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN HAS ALSO SHOWN AN EQUATORWARD TREND IN
MOST OF THE AIDS, WITH MOST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING CONSENSUS, MOVING
TOWARDS ECMWF. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING A TRACK OVER SOUTHERN OKINAWA
IS NOW GFS, AND THAT TRACK LOOKS TO BE A CASE OF EXCESSIVE DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
YELLOW SEA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONGEALED, AND THERE IS NO
LONGER A DISPARITY BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH TAU
72, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL INCREASE FROM ITS CURRENT 28
DEGREES TO 29 DEGREES OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS
TURNING OUT TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THE CASE OF TY 11W. THUS,
TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A RELATIVELY FLAT INTENSITY TREND UNTIL
JUST BEFORE LANDFALL, WHEN SLIGHTLY WARMERS AND SLIGHTLY LESS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY
100 KNOTS.
C. TY 11W WILL GRAZE THE EAST COAST OF CHINA, COMING VERY CLOSE
TO SHANGHAI, NEAR TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. STORM INTENSITY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TRACK AND CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. THE WARMEST
WATERS AND LOWEST WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS NEAR TAU 72. THUS, THE
TY 11W WILL REACH ITS HIGHEST INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY FLOODING ALONG THE CHANG MA BOUNDARY IN
THE TAU 96-120 RANGE AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE YELLOW SEA
LINKS WITH THE UPPER LEVELS OF TY 11W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AND FILL BETWEEN SHANGHAI AND
BEIJING, BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
MAY SET UP A DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL OVER NORTH KOREA.//
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